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IBM announced to give up consulting business, transformation of cognitive computing and cloud platform

via:博客园     time:2016/1/7 15:31:05     readed:2819

BMBM 宣布放弃咨询业务,转型认知计算和云平台

The number of micro channel public intellectual Xuantang

If a wise Xuanjun: peak time of IBM GBS was once known as the "industry consulting the Whampoa Military Academy, in today's consulting industry in China, few consulting firm does not see the figure of IBM, a former adviser to the, this essay is dedicated to once a generation consulting giant.

IBM announced today, will be transformed into

This transition will be the largest since Gerstner business transformation!

The following is from the IBM internal mail:

Cognitive solutions In

Are creating We a single IBM Global Industries organization with the mission for industry strategy and engagement across IBM bringing together all our industry expertise from GBS and S

We are establishing a single, integrated cognitive solutions team to the spectrum provide clients with industry-focused repeatable offerings across of analytics and cognitive, as they digitize their businesses, with emphasis on a core set of

Industries primed high-growth for cognitive transformation. The Industry Solutions Sales Teams will focus on complex/custom industry solutions.

Cloud platforms In

We are with IBM middleware into the IBM cloud, where it will be the heart of hybrid. We will continue to all cloud-enable of our current middleware, solutions and services. And throughout the coming year, we will make additional high-value cloud services directly callable by bour on premises software.

Will accelerate and We continue building the premier cloud stack and developer environment.

The same At time.IBM Systems will focus on designing developing and delivering leading-edge software servers storage and built for a hybrid cloud model..

From the mail content can be seen and S GBS

Reference to read: GBS IBM introduction

2002 years ago, the IBM Advisory Department is BIS (Innovation Services Business), after the merger of the PWC consulting department (PwCC), BCS (Business Service), integrated into the business advisory services (Consultant). Prior to the merger of BIS global 50 thousand employees, annual sales of $10 billion 200 million, PwCC global 30 thousand employees, $4 billion 900 million.

GBS IBM (Business Service Global), that is, the global corporate advisory services, in 2006 by the name of BCS, the world's largest IT and management consulting company. GBS's business includes management consulting, strategic consulting, IT consulting, etc.. The main competitors are Accenture, BearingPoint, DDT consulting.

Reference to reading: "the New York times: IBM or human hope? "

Since then, the core business of IBM in different periods had punched card machines, watches and clocks, large machine and PC etc.. Today, IBM became the annual income of close to $93 billion enterprise software company, provides a more efficient information technology and business solutions for similar companies.

However, the rise of the giant, has been 14 consecutive quarters of revenue decline, the share price fell more than 5 to five year low, behind the Google, apple, and Microsoft, Oracle and HP and other new and old giants. Critics argue that IBM's technological transformation comes too late, such as cloud computing. That the company has almost become the inevitable decay of the news public opinion at leisure.

IBM on the doomsday prophecy partial responses, it is hid in a is located in the mountains of northern New York, looks like is a three storey high flying saucer inside the building to start to do their own research. The building designer Eero Saarinen, he designed the Jefferson National Monument, New York Kennedy International Airport, the Dulles International Airport, have become Organic Functionalism milestone on behalf of the building.

The building is located in York heights, IBM Watson Research Center (Watson)

In recent years, the most notable results from this laboratory to the number of Watson (Waston)

However, Watson is not the top of the IBM project. In Yorktown heights, IBM's material scientists, physicists, electrical engineers, chemists are engaged in study of dozens of projects, including the final or comparable to the human brain of artificial intelligence, the size of an atom to a computer chip bring change of carbon nanotubes and quantum computer. These sounds of make groundless accusations of projects have been carried out for several years, some will continue for decades. It is not a problem to use the power of the computer to improve human intelligence if IBM scientists are able to make a significant breakthrough on these topics.

The reason that drives IBM to carry out these projects is the reason why it can invent the causes of the punch card, hard disk, and all the other things: patient, methodical, and precise scientific research. 2014, IBM optical research and development costs $5 billion 500 million. Unlike some modern fashion giant, IBM launched a project never gorgeous ostentation and extravagance, not regarded as a belief in the designer, scrambling to launch the next generation consumer big kill device

But the question is, is this enough for today?

Watson Watson is the butt of things can do nothing, of course, is very cool

In the most recently in New York held meeting Watson, a Danish man said: "at other times, I never thought of here. IBM is a big machine, but Watson is very interesting. "

Watson, of course, is cool.

Watson is famous eight years ago. In February 2011, Watson research center of the medieval church was transformed into "the dangerous edge" scenery. Watson is scheduled to challenge the two human players in the game when the most successful

At that time, Watson and the size of a master bedroom, a refrigerator sized box is its "face". It is configured with 750 servers, 16TB 2880 core memory, manufacturing costs as high as $3 million. Its initial developer is hoping to design Watson in accordance with the "deep blue". Deep blue is the super computer that defeated the chess champion Kasparov Garry in 1997. In order to let Watson won the game, the developers need to build a can answer 70 problem, and to achieve the correct rate of 80, time to answer each question no more than 3 seconds. Because it's the level of the human opponent.

Now Watson has moved to New York, Manhattan East village. Its "brain" is mainly in the clouds. In January 2014, IBM announced to establish a business team to Watson, put it in a gleaming new office, and promised to invest in technology more than $10 billion to promote Watson to profit from the laboratory. Later, the company in the 4 floor of its headquarters building to the future of the customer show Watson. In the past two years, IBM and 350 organizations and 100 university reached cooperation agreement, aimed at Watson to build into an omniscient, omnipotent computer system.

Watson's core work is to extract ideas and meanings from the data according to the way of human communication. It can through the full of reading comprehension and vocabulary, to generate an analytical model within a few minutes, and with increasing age (the term for the use of growth), Watson can in every information scanning in learning to become more intelligent.

This year, Luo Ruilan launched in charge of cognitive computing and enterprise application business consulting business, and plans to hire about 2000 people in the consultant team, and its part of the function is to help customers understand how to use the customer business Watson. Now, the Department's business has been involved in a variety of areas, from corporate mergers and acquisitions analysis, to the selection of football, and even wine and food. With every iteration, Watson has also been used to prevent cancer, answer the tax problem in singapore. Now Watson, be able to analyze your character, and then suggest a suitable for your dinner program, and so on

Watson's great analytical function in the diagnosis of disease reflects the fulfillment of its early promise. Watson team and CVS chain pharmacies, memorial Caitlin - Sloan Cancer Center for cooperation, and acquired the medical imaging company Healthcare Merge, in order to develop their ability to diagnose medical. Watson team director High Rob said, Watson can fill doctors can not achieve the medical blank. "It is almost impossible to follow the birth of the new technology to the medical profession, so doctors rely on the knowledge and skills they learned many years ago to make a decision. "

IBM forward enterprises of all types of open API, let startups and venture capital support enterprise to established companies can use the Watson's natural language processing, computer vision and cognitive ability in the app development. IBM to do so, is to show the strength of Watson to the outside world, and to recruit API buyers. Deloitte analyst Rajeev Ronanki said Watson's final fate is to be used to drive the other IBM business, such as data storage software platform and infrastructure management.

The rebirth of "Watson"

In York, heights, researchers are still exploring artificial intelligence computer system. However, this is not the Watson. AI's IBM works with a new name: Celia.

Celia can replace the environment cognitive intelligent assistant. When IBM's marketing team was busy with the work of Watson to the big company, these researchers are committed to the integration of Celia into the work function itself

Celia's system is essentially the use of Watson's concept, then add a human element on the basis of. In most cases, interaction and Watson still need to input commands on the computer. Celia means that it will be modeled as a human communication object. For example, corporate executives can ask Celia a question: "the semiconductor industry, which are small businesses for us to acquire it?" "Then Celia will respond to a reasonable list of companies and explain why you chose them.

"We are inspired by how people can be able to do the reasoning and debate with the emotional bias," said Watson High Rob, head of the team. In M & A analysis discussion, Celia may demonstrate some of the significance of the acquisition program, even if the CEO of the company did not like each other's CEO, or the board of directors does not see each other's brand spirit, or for other human emotion and personality and of the takeover was anti sense. Watson is working toward this goal, while Celia is born for this purpose.

It is not difficult to imagine how Celia can be applied in various fields. For example, doctors can discuss the diagnosis and analysis of Celia, received Celia synthesis of tens of millions of medical data after the answer. Researchers can use Celia's data analysis to develop new drugs, or plan a new city and so on, customer service hotline can also be replaced by the machine.

In short, Celia is like a capable digital assistant in the movie "she", but it doesn't really have the desire to love or want to escape. Computers think like us! However, even though no matter how advanced, Watson and Celia are traditional and computer logic.

In August 2014, IBM announced that they had developed a new type of chip that mimics the human brain.

Although today's chips have been quite useful in the analysis of information, but these new types of chips are more suitable for finding patterns in the vast amount of information

Modha said, his goal was to build a shoebox of brain, which contains more than 100 million synapses, power consumption less than kw

Regardless of whether the researchers are clearly working toward this goal, IBM is likely to have been on the road to building an artificial intelligence system that has never been seen in the world. But in the moment, the above calculation ability is just a mere science fiction.

Celia may be just a dream.

In the future, if the silicon is replaced, what will the world be like?

Gil Dario, vice president for research and development, said the company is trying to maintain Moore's law on two fronts. "Moore's law" the key is to reduce the size of the chip size, enhance the performance of the chip, this law has maintained the computer industry for decades. According to Moore's law, the new chip manufacturing technology will be iterated every two years.

IBM on the one hand, set up a perfect team is committed to reducing the chip manufacturing process, so the processing power of the chip in the future will be more and more powerful. On the other hand, IBM announced a breakthrough in the field of chip manufacturing process: developed the first chip processor using 7Nm process. Earlier this year, Intel launched its new 14nm technology chips, and hope that in 2017 he launched 10 nm chip.

But in the end, it is no longer possible for humans to use silicon to make more micro chips. IBM semiconductor research director Khare Mukesh said that his team will try to reduce the chip process to 5 nm, but the difficulty is very large. "It is impossible for us to do anything smaller than the atom. "(the diameter of the silicon atom is about 5 nm).

The semiconductor industry market is about $335 billion, almost entirely based on silicon chips. So, if the future of Silicon Valley is no longer rely on silicon to create a computer chip, the world will become what it looks like?

In Heights Yorktown's physics lab, scientists are trying to make smaller chips with carbon nanotubes. These tubes are all hollow cylindrical structures, the wall is composed of a single layer of carbon atoms, and connected to the hexagonal lattice, about ten thousand times smaller than the human hair. It is understood that IBM has been studied in this field for more than 20 years. Compared with silicon materials, carbon nanotubes are more stable and the heat insulation is also very good, and it can provide a faster connection. That is to say, the new material is likely to continue to maintain the validity of Moore's law for decades.

Early in October this year, IBM announced they solve one of the key obstacles of research and development of carbon nanotubes: how nanotubes and other microprocessor part better connected, to facilitate them when in operation in the state be conductive. Prior to this, the high resistance can prevent the flow of electricity, but the IBM approach is to connect the end of the tube with the metal molybdenum. The connection itself is very rare, but it is the key to the production of micro chip circuit. IBM's material scientists said that this technology can be used to make the three generation of chips, but as the electronic components become smaller, resistance will become more and more large, so this iterative technology is also facing great difficulties.

In addition to replacing silicon chips, IBM also hopes to pave the way for the nano robot with carbon nano technology

However, this can not be achieved overnight. Nanotubes and nano robots are still in the research stage, the distance can be put into practice, there are decades of time.

Quantum leap

All of these studies are designed to make computers more intelligent, more friendly, and less power consumption. But the computer of the IBM study is a completely different concept.

The traditional computer is basically a collection of billions of transistors, whose operations are in bits. A bit is the smallest unit of a computer in a computer; when we input any one of the English letters into the computer, the letter takes up a byte, and the byte is made up of bits. Every letter, number, message, photo, and file of a computer is made up of a series of bits.

However, if a single transistor contains a single atom, then the concept of operation is completely different. According to the rules of quantum physics, the input and output states of a quantum computer are generally Superposition States, which are usually not orthogonal to each other. The common digital computer runs on 0 and 1 binary systems, called "bit" (bit). But the quantum computer can be calculated on the quantum bit (qubit), which can calculate the numerical value between 0 and 1. That is to say, the quantum computation has been greatly expanded to the classical computation.

At the same time, IBM, senior vice president of the company has said that the team has been a wide range of encryption system for the quantum computer system. But at present, there is more practical value of the quantum system

However, the difficulty of building such a machine can be imagined. One of the great challenges that scientists are trying to control the quantum computer is to control or remove the quantum

Patience is a virtue

For IBM, these technologies take so long time to produce results is not weak, it represents a kind of power.

Tulevski, the nanotube team, said he had never felt any work pressure to speed up the study of quantum computing. "Our laboratory is committed to basic science and basic research.

IBM chief Innovation Officer Meyerson Bernie said, Heights Yorktown did not do the research work: it happens to be a crucial element of IBM. This process is like standing in the tunnel, looking at the end of a beam of light at the end of a beam, and then finally found the oncoming is a train. "Meyerson said, regardless of is the bread and cheese slicer, or data processing and chip revolution, in which the R & D has in common, such as in you is the same in opening up a new world, and everything you do will determine the lifetime of this new world. "You need a precise balance to measure everything, time, achievement, and material benefits. "

Can science save IBM?

So, this research department can give IBM declining revenue and stock price to bring the answer? Our future possible landing Watson access interface, using a IBM manufacturing, driven by the carbon nanotube quantum computer?

"Can only say that this is possible," said Cringely Robert, a columnist for the former Forbes.

Cringely believe that IBM can not go out of their way, and the current decline in the company's revenue is only a prelude to the storm. Cringely in its "2014: IBM's decline and decline" in the IBM Lou Gerstner CEO before quoting a joke wrote: "IBM's research will not come up with good ideas

Cringely holds a skeptical attitude to the "moon landing project" studied by IBM

DDT analyst Ronanki said that people for the next five to seven years with great faith

Perhaps the ultimate IBM can provide such a convincing result: the company's situation is not optimistic in the short term. IBM's latest quarter earnings below Wall Street expectations, analysts expect the company will continue to usher in a fiscal year revenue fell. In October, Royal Bank of Canada capital analyst Daryanani Amit said that the company is on the right track, that is, the focus of the work to Luo Ruilan stressed the strategic reserve"

In short, before Watson can be converted into future years capital strength, blue giant executives must ensure the company in the short term to bet on cloud computing and it security can quickly increase the income areas, to Watson, Celia's R & D to win time.

These principles are also suitable for the study of quantum computation in IBM. Crack code, construction can not secure computer network, or make the air traffic control more easily and efficiently things are just out of the primary stage of the study, the distance is still a long distance from the actual. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Scott Aaronson points out, like a conventional computer to replace the used to simulate aircraft or entity surrounding gas flow wind tunnel laboratory, quantum computers in the future will be to replace the particle accelerators. So the question is, when the quantum computer is able to accomplish such a feat, IBM is still alive to get this sum of profits

Back in 1961, when Watson was built, the architect asked to plant 1000 evergreen plants in the open space, and the building's entrance hall was constructed almost entirely from the local Weiss Chester. Durable, prosperous, which is the architect's vision. What about IBM's own development?

Today, IBM's R & D center still has a calm atmosphere, the whole building revealing a quiet force. Scientists tread linoleum floor. From a laboratory hurried to another laboratory, janitors and security personnel adhere to in their posts, the background of the host a buzzing sound, the old clock ticking go non-stop.

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