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Twitter share price cut, microblogging has doubled the past two years what happened?

via:博客园     time:2016/8/11 9:30:45     readed:1586

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

[Editor's note] Tencent Technology microblogging released this week reported a second-quarter net profit of $ 25.9 million, an increase of five times over the past two years, its stock price increased by 1.2 times, while its initial emulate Twitter still trapped pull it out in the quagmire of losses in the past two years the share price has also fallen by half.

See the author Rui / Wei Wu Hui

Micro-channel public number / ItTalks

Weibo release 2016 second quarter earnings, a very successful performance, profit rose more than five times.

On the Chinese Internet twenty years of development history, microblogging be an alternative. It's unique point is that there are few like it, and it was unanimously optimistic about the public consistent look bad but then look at the rise of bad products.

In 2011, public opinion microblogging went to see more in the peak, there was a so-called & ldquo; microblogging change China & rdquo; argument.

2012, Twitter began to go downhill, a very interesting phenomenon is that, from the & ldquo; every day, brush microblogging & rdquo; to & ldquo; now there are what people use microblogging? & Rdquo;

2014, microblogging market, domestic public opinion is still not too optimistic, a very important reason is that its micro-channel public account platform to attract too much attention.

2016, microblogging strong rise, up to August, the stock has even pulled Yang Xian six months. The current stock price hit a record high above $ 40.


Stock prices, behind the performance. Listed in 2014 after playing microblogging performance really satisfactory.

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

Total revenue dish microblogging advertising revenue dish, an increase each quarter are between 40-50%, its profit growth really can & ldquo; staggering & rdquo; to describe. Playing from the first quarter of 2015, an increase of microblogging profit, we are used to describe a multiple of & mdash; & mdash; of course, the base is not very important. 14 years of the four quarters, there is a loss of three quarters of the state 15 years to Q2 profit considered formally entered the stage.

Alibaba stake in April 2013 micro-Bo, and provides support for three-year performance for the latter. Beginning microblogging income did benefit many Ali ADS system, but today, microblogging Ali dependence is not high.

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

Moment, microblogging claimed the number of advertisers on their own platforms to reach 100 million. Q3 2015, when only half of this number: 500,000. Long tail of revenue on the microblogging has been very full.


As a person living in Shanghai, and often deep Hangzhou Paopao North Canton, I did hear the high-frequency words: I do not micro-Bo, me too few people use ah.

I use less. I even when my phone is only 16G of memory, has not been installed microblogging client.

But microblogging DAU and MAU, are based on a rate per quarter, an 30% rise.

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

I reviewed what I do not use microblogging reasons: This APP is quite complex, and once I want to find my pathetic advertising into, looking for a long time. I can not help but complain: Which product manager to engage in less complex.

But entirely possible there is another group of people, they are just a few features of microblogging, other functions not care. There could also be a group of people, each iteration in the use of microblogging, for them, long-term use has made them feel not hard to find the sub-function.

Somewhat similar situation is that I still do not understand the very complex QQ on a Windows system (on Mac actually very simple) that I rarely use QQ, but this is my case.

A group of people, QQ chat or just to transfer files, and then complex and independent of them. There are groups of people, QQ add a function every time a new version, in use, of course, does not like me have suddenly picked up a loss of feeling.


Teacher microblogging: Twitter two years quite ring true.

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

Stock prices different.

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

Twitter has been losing money, the media broke the news that, Twitter plans to 17,000 square meters of space outside the San Francisco headquarters sublease, it is regarded as cut costs.

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

Compared with the microblogging each quarter year on year increase substantially MAU has more than 30%, of active Twitter users in worse. 2016 Q2, an increase of its MAU into the negative zone.

Twitter often for CEO, that my friend joked that this company has been a surge of Yahoo's temperament.

Why is that?


Twitter long-term profit is negative, I found a small reason: its expenses, compared with the micro-Bo, there is a sense too.

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

Mainly in sales, management and administrative costs in this one. Twitter This is an expenditure for two consecutive years have accounted for half of revenue, while the micro-Bo is more restrained.

This may be one factor affecting profits. To put it plainly, Twitter's relatively large proportion of personnel expenses.

But it seems difficult to explain why Twitter's active users have not rapid growth.

The Facebook of MAU quarter rose after data is added, this figure can be obtained as follows:

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

Gray Line is Facebook, the growth figures this year has been very strong, holding nearly 15% of the scale. Taking into account the Facebook base from Q1 2014 reached 1.28 billion (compared to 143.8 million Weibo, Twitter, compared to 255 million), this increase is satisfactory.

The same social applications for Twitter it, Facebook is a huge shadow.

The Facebook and Twitter in fact, there is very big difference: Facebook heavy, complex, Twitter light, simple.

View, light, simple, and not necessarily how to please users. QQ, micro-channel, and does not mention what light is also simple.

So, I have been very skeptical & ldquo; less is more & rdquo; this seemingly filled with philosophical words.

If the product is an early, less is more may be cut as a tactic is feasible. But by the late, at least in the social field, we see, are quite complex integrated one-stop service to win.


Now look at what microblogging in the end did make it in the shadow of the micro-channel is still doing can be described as wind and water.

There is no doubt the fact that, microblogging and micro-letters still have their differences.

Suppose ordinary Joe Smith as a & ldquo; prehistoric force & rdquo; and powder on Fuyuan Hui, he had great difficulty in micro-channel becomes Fugu Niang's & ldquo; Friends & rdquo ;, thus almost impossible to look at the & ldquo; mudslides & rdquo ; athletes in the circle of friends really say anything.

Of course, he can focus on Fuyuan Hui public number (assume) to complete follow this action. But most public micro-channel number can only be issued once a day graphics from Fuyuan Hui point of view, if you really want to win over the fans, this frequency is not enough.

In fact, the micro-channel public number is a PC and mobile sides across products. Content producers need the help of PC, while the content acquisition by the end of the move. Micro-channel public number is not a pure product moves (micro-channel public number touches a mobile terminal APP production on a small scale test).

We observed Fuyuan Hui microblogging can be found in the past, she remarks, photos, it is difficult to set the micro-channel public number of situations. While all seems to be a CMS (content distribution management system), but microblogging and micro-channel public number, the difference is very large.

This means that, even in the heyday of the huge shadow of micro letter, microblogging theoretically still has its presence in space, rather than a dead end.

Nothing more than to see the micro-Bo in the end how to do.

Microblogging is: sinking.


It means sinking into three paths.

The first is the four-tier cities and even fifty-six line to infiltrate the city. This is the so-called sinking user community property.

The second is policy to a small V-V conversion strategy, microblogging called & ldquo; & rdquo ;, vertical segments as small V are generally vertical segments, rather than the type of public. This is the sinking content.

The third is the tonality of sinking. Early & ldquo; microblogging change China & rdquo; the kind of grand tonality is different is that microblogging is now a lot of content to eat and drink Lazard style.

A good example is a national network of incubators such as red Han, its network of more than thirty red uniform all business development rather than on the micro-channel microblogging. One of the most famous red net called Zhang Dayi, in 2015, a two-eleven in the evening, sales of over 60 million. She is currently on the microblogging more than 400 million fans.

When you go to observe micro-Bo Zhang Dayi, it will have such a feeling: these elements, and micro-channel public number that situation, it is unlikely to take: generally very short text, and either is good with a few photos, or is a video of the last very directly steered to make purchases on the ADS system.

For many electricity as revenue models microblogging operators, between the micro-channel and cross-ADS system closure, making it difficult for them to conduct business on a micro-channel public number.


Very interesting point is that, Sina Charles Chao Department under the rule of the class video project has been a unique situation minutes. In 2012, I was serving a graduate student, was also Sina staff, and I would mention privately, Tsao is very optimistic about the short video. At that time, the investment Sina video show 9158, which listed in Hong Kong.

Sina microblogging can now use video-based tools and a second shot live, probably belonging to the former category taped, it is finished uploading. The latter is a live class, you can interact in real time based on the video.

With the decline in the price of bandwidth and enhance the speed, the video will clearly be greatly sought after. Microblogging bet either a short video or live video class, direction and there is no problem.

If the micro-channel public number driven by a big wave of content business, then, microblogging may bring Mobility red entrepreneurship & mdash; & mdash; or, in accordance with such as Han, founder of Feng Min to net red do not accept, you can call up people business.


Although micro-Bo has been out of its trough, also has written a very inspirational story: The overall look is still under bad comeback, but I did not mean that the micro-Bo will be back in its heyday hint that Tencent QQ upcoming threatened status. In fact, the threat to the microblogging micro letter is not significant.

As a social networking application Twitter, in the final analysis is the interest graph: care what happened, to see what Daren recommended to me, which of course is a just demand, but I am afraid there is no micro-channel such complete interpersonal communication just need so & ldquo ; just & rdquo ;.

Microblogging very hard on the sinking of user attributes, but according to Morgan Stanley estimates, Twitter's MAU in second-tier cities, as well as third-line and below the city were 41% and 27% micro letter. You can think microblogging is still room for growth (eg via a video class service), but to go beyond micro-letters, the possibility is very small.

Than microblogging DAU and MAU's, has been in 14 years and down 45% level. It is not clear micro believe this measure user engagement metrics degrees, but Facebook's data is 66% (58% in Asia).

This can and microblogging product lines related complex.

Previously mentioned, the social field of platform-level products require complex functions, rather than light, simple. But the function does not equate to a complex disorder. Microblogging various items of sub-functions, from product design point of view, there are complex feeling.


Finally, talk about the future path of commercial microblogging.

睿见睿见  过去两年 Twitter 股价腰斩,微博却翻倍

This figure reflects each MAU advertising revenue in the first quarter of this year, the micro-Bardon to $ 0.38 in the second quarter to $ 0.45. Morgan Stanley Asia data similar companies this indicator is given: $ 0.76 (first quarter). Facebook In Asia, the figure is $ 1.5 (a quarter).

It is well known, Sina has probably China's best Internet advertising sales force. In its various home portal, a single flow can bring advertising sales, even in the face of China ranked second traffic Tencent QQ.com, also did not strive.

But microblogging advertising sales efficiency is not high.

2016 first quarter, microblogging CPM price of 15 yuan, while the price of micro-channel circle of friends CPM ads reached 60 yuan, today's headlines 40-50 yuan.

Microblogging behind the 1 million advertisers, long tail advertising circle of friends and indeed, different ad headlines. Microblogging CPM lower prices for advertisers is true is good news, but on the micro-Bo, can be described as the efficiency to be improved.

Of course, these figures illustrate the micro-Bo did not come to a situation is no longer room for growth, but can also be explained, the main focus of the future of microblogging is: polished product to improve the ratio of DAU and MAU, improve efficiency in order to improve CPM prices.

This is a micro-blog in the third quarter, after fourth quarter earnings release should be the focus indicators.

See About the author Rui

Wei Wu Hui, Internet new media observers, practitioners and critics, currently teaches at the School of Media and Design, Shanghai Jiaotong University, is also a venture partner Qie Miba day fund management company.

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