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That day, the Japanese IT technology has finally realized the fear of being eliminated ... ...

via:博客园     time:2016/11/18 13:31:01     readed:1621


Text / Tokyo it people

Well aware of this article, many of the slip of the tongue, I am afraid to offend a large number of people. This article is a personal point of view, you are welcome to express their views in the message area.

Into the Japanese SI (System Integration) industry, who are like the island in recent years, popular animation [attack the giant] in the siege of human beings. Relying on the so-called high-quality services to the wall, against the wall of the giant attack the footsteps. Once the wall began to collapse, the survivors will be very few.

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Ray child high school was a while, it is the beginning of the popularity of personal computers in the era. At that time pocket money all used to buy "computer" "mass software" such newspapers, the daily study is how Zanji.

Motherboard on the North-South Bridge is doing, how to overclock to 133 to 166, drive home on the latest version number is ... ... around relatives and friends at home computer, all I installed in the computer to their city.

Do not know when to start, the computer began to become a consumable. Feel slow, go directly to the electrical discount store, buy their own in the price to accept the latest models to go home. I5 or i7, dual-core or quad-core, have been too lazy to study.

The most important indicator is the appearance to look good.

This is often self-deprecating to say, I was with money for time. With the time saved to do more important things. In fact, my heart knows that their hardware knowledge and white is no different.

In a variety of new languages, new technologies, new frameworks emerging today into the Japanese SI industry technology who may one day suddenly found that: their own technology has lagged behind several times the times.

As they are about to be eliminated in the hands of the computer.

After experiencing a large-scale, multi-year enterprise system refresh project for a user, the technologists began looking for the next case or company. In the interview, they are often asked the question:

"Front Frame are used? & Rdquo;

"AWS on the development experience? & Rdquo;

"Is there any contribution from the OSS community?" & Rdquo;

Have heard of unstructured data storage and Spark? & Rdquo;


Of course, if the patience to find, you can still find a job and their use of the same technology, with the same industry background work. In five years, another 10 years, can not find? Who do not know.

In some segments of SI, such as ERP, the shortage of talent, so that these industry platform technology, holding a lot higher than other areas of wages. But who can guarantee that this demand will last forever.

Perhaps tomorrow, there will be an open source community of enterprise applications and architecture, directly replace the status of SAP.

10 years ago, Nokia will not think they will have today's fate. 15 years ago, Microsoft, I am afraid can not think of themselves in any field have become second-rate role in the day.

We have seen too much of this subversive drama. Internet era, everything is coming very quickly.

● ● ●

Japan's economy can have today's success, relying on the post-war eight motor manufacturers, automotive, steel industry, the rise of the Japanese-made reputation. Old people mention the quality of Japan, said Sony TV can be used for 30 years. However, now you will see 30 years ago, the TV?

Internet era, the need is not this 30 years are not bad with the quality, but the application of the latest technology, fast iterative products. "Craftsman spirit" is commendable, but not necessarily suitable for some of today's market.

When the economy is good, the user company has the money to develop the system. Case of economic downturn, IT investment Yigai cut. This is the SI industry characteristics.

Now the boom is good? Take a look at the end of the path of Abe economics, negative interest rates so that financial institutions devastated. Look at the situation of those large motor manufacturers, counterfeiting of the fraud, the sale of the sale. Everyone has an answer in his heart.

These users are the source of SI industry revenue, and so one day they are gone, SI industry can maintain the current size of it?

In recent years, a number of large-scale projects have rushed together, resulting in the shortage of IT technology phenomenon (2015,2016 problem). But with the peak in March 2016 began to fall, a large number of SI industry manpower was released.

Take Mizuho's core system refresh program as an example. Up to the first half of the year up to 8,000 IT technology in the development. And now the system testing stage, reduced to less than 4,000 people.

These technologies are difficult to digest a moment, have become the company's standby. Especially for those SI industry, the bottom of the pyramid of the company, has become a heavy burden.

Some people may not agree with my pessimistic view of the SI industry. To refute me:

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced on June 10 that Japan's lack of IT talent was insufficient. Now the number of people is about 17 million people, in 2020, 2 times the strength of about 37 million people, 30 years of に は さ ら に 2 times the strength of about 79 million people from the increase.

Look, ah, obviously the Japanese government said. IT talent gap is huge, and now have reached 17 million people by 2020, 37 million people missing, to 2030 missing 790,000 people. Lei Zi is here to sing bad SI industry, is what motives!

Very regrettable. IT industry in Japan is short of people, but that is focused on information security, Internet of Things (IoT), artificial intelligence and other front-end areas. SI industry really do not have much chance.


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According to the National Institute of Social Security, Japan's population aged over 20 years, more than 65 years of age will account for the proportion of the total population of more than 40%.

Seemingly the Japanese economy will increase with aging, the decline in the labor force decline. But think about it, which has great opportunities.

Japan's rich and poor, wealth hidden in the private sector. According to statistics, private financial assets has reached 1700 trillion yen as much as Japan's GDP in 2015 four times. Among them, more than half of the elderly are held.

Compared to the hard to force young people, the Japanese old man is the real local tyrant.

Japan's highest proportion of 55% of the estate tax, making the money with the government after his death by half, not as their own expense. Think about it, which have to produce much economic benefits.

Buy buy? People old, stroll does not move the line of shops. O2O, electricity providers the opportunity to come.

Traveling out? Still can not walk, then virtual around the world. VR hardware, network content providers the opportunity to come.

Old people need care, young workers can be insufficient? Robot, IoT the chance to come.

Old driving easily out of danger? The opportunity to automatically drive AI.

Above these, IT industry is a huge gap in talent.

Heavenly business has entered the winter period. But the Japanese side, but also did not start anything. A lot of money from N years ago began to enter the Japanese layout.

But many investors generally feeling that there is money, but in Japan can not find entrepreneurs.

If you can put in those days proved to be feasible in the Internet business model moved to Japan, must be able to quickly open this piece of blue ocean market. Do not need any cash subsidies. If the quality of service is good, the Japanese are really willing to take out a lot of money to.

Do not underestimate the Internet's ability to innovate. A while ago, an article in a circle of friends: "dare to say that China's cottage? Last year, Royal Park are dead magic business model these days were all bargain-hunting in Silicon Valley.

The article pointed out that Silicon Valley and even the global investment institutions benchmark Y Combinator recently cast a number of projects, actually all Chinese entrepreneurs play the rest.

Even the Silicon Valley have come to copy the business model of the Celestial Belt, behind the days of the N-year Japanese Internet, but also Han Shisha?

● ● ●


A while ago, "Beijing folded" won the Hugo Award, Ray son also follow the trend read. Not long, two hours will be able to read.

The three spaces in the novel reflect the three classes of the elite, the middle class and the bottom level manual laborers.

If the technology is divided into three spaces, I think so:

The latest platform, language and technology, belong to the first space. Expansion momentum is very fierce, but mastered the technical talent is extremely scarce, so that these technicians earn pours.

The second space, which is the mainstream of the platform and language. This space brings together a large number of technology, pay average, constitute the main force of the IT industry.

The third space, which is clearly the platform and language to death.

All of the techniques are experienced from the first space to the third space of the process of falling. Some technologies can stay in the second space for decades, and some technology from the emergence to the death may be only a few years. But no one can escape this process.

For the SI industry technology, each system development process, both consumption and accumulation.

The depreciation of their own technology is consumed, as I write the most when the opening chapter.

Accumulation is for the project management and user business process mastery. Whether it is PG-line, or mdash; mdash; mdash; mdash; mdash; mdash; mdash; business consultants line, all need this accumulation to go.

Sadly, there are a lot of technical people in vain to consume their own technology, but no effort to accumulate what they should learn. I interviewed a number of job seekers, for several years of the project, did not know the business is Gansha.

Even more tragic is that some companies in order to immediate petty profits, so just entering the industry to learn the new people who are obviously the language and technology to death, in their most learning ability and creativity of the stage, a waste of youth.

The company is naturally profit-driven, but often see such a phenomenon, or feel a bit sad and sorry. Newcomers continue to care about their immediate pay more than a dollar less one dollar, put more energy, in the study of industry trends and planning career path, will not be better?

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Since ancient times, everything for the Chinese people are very fond of "iron rice bowl". 90 years, has been coming to the "laid-off" was forced to give up the work of state-owned enterprises, and now, the annual civil service examination of the vast army, are proof.

Yes ah, 40 years old, 50 years old, older, slow response time, if the loss of work, it is difficult to feed their families, who is a disaster. Iron rice bowl of infinite charm, as it should be.

But I think, really "iron rice bowl" is not a lifetime in a place to eat not salty not light meal, but carrying my "bowl" where there is food to eat.

Conform to and even the use of the times change, the growing with the times, any era of social needs, is the real strong iron rice bowl.

Japan is changing, China is afraid to become faster. Finally, I sincerely wish you all, in this ever-changing world, no matter in which stage of life, have to go where the confidence to eat and emboldened.


Tokyo IT people

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