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Who killed Li's mouth that "the end of the mobile Internet era"

via:博客园     time:2016/11/21 22:31:30     readed:1113


"When I came to Wuzhen two years ago, still talk about how we adapt to the mobile Internet era, today I want to talk about the era of mobile Internet is over. "November 16, the Third World Internet Conference plenary session, Baidu Director Li said so.

In fact, the director and Yao Jinbo on the "mobile Internet can be born again unicorn" controversy has led to a lot of depth analysis of the article, I have no intention to continue to throw standpoint. After all, Russell said, do not blindly worship any authority, because you can always find the opposite authority.

But we do have reason to believe that the mobile Internet-based business window is closed. But "kill the mobile Internet," the pot, but also turn to the mouth of Lee, director of "artificial intelligence" to back.

From a group of data and the revision of the three phenomenon-level APP Speaking of it

a set of data:

This set of data is from the US technology news site VentureBeat reports.

Reported that the mobile Internet market research company Jampp published a report, people use a single time to focus on APP, compared to previous years fell 90%.

The results show that mobile phone users to open an APP, a separate time to use the APP, each quarter fell 35%. This means that users will soon switch to other mobile phone software, mobile phone users focus on the length of an APP, compared to previous years fell 88%.

Want to verify the report described in the phenomenon is not difficult, sooner or later the peak to Beijing subway is a good choice. You will find more and more bow to the party began to face the massive mobile APP mobile indefinite, and they switch the frequency of the application is also getting higher and higher.

Three coincidentally exaggerated revision:

First, mobile phone Baidu

According to Baidu Q3 earnings, Baidu information flow after the launch of a good core search business and improve the content of the ecological and greatly increase the user stickiness. Mobile Baidu information flow in the third quarter to achieve a flow of 20 times the growth.


(& Ldquo; Today's headline & quot; below the search box)

Earnings in this passage probably means: Baidu in their own search box below the implanted a similar headlines today, the intelligent distribution module, this feature on-line after the phone users Baidu greatly improved. Obviously, Baidu itself is also consciously adding some new elements to enhance the active users of the product.

In addition, the mobile phone Baidu is still embedded in the information flow of the live module, from time to time will introduce some of their own leading live content, that the search box is no longer the last years of the same fight alone.

Second, today's headlines

A few days ago, today's headline CEO Zhang Yiming at the third World Conference on the Internet keynote speech, said today's headlines is to promote a new project "headlines", will rely on artificial intelligence algorithm to create a large community Q & A.

In September this year, Zhang Yiming also 2016 headlines creator of the General Assembly, said it would come up with 1 billion yuan to subsidize short video creation, at least 1 billion yuan subsidy to headlines on the short video creator.

The most direct expression of the strategy at the product level is that when we look at the news with today's headlines, we occasionally brush a short video, or a headline question and answer, in a conspicuous display. If you are a headline author, there may be in the background to receive some of their areas of expertise and similar Q & A invitation.

In addition, when the user in today's headline search for some movies or IP information, will be similar to the Baidu search box to get the information.


(A familiar keyword search page)

In addition to these changes, today's headlines are still quietly popularizing another feature: headlines. This feature is similar to the WeChat friends circle published graphic information, users can map and add their own words, and the headlines will push the above information to the flow of information.

Headline of the heavy users should not be difficult to find, in recent months in the headlines APP home page news, will often pop up a "star is using today's headlines" news, this kind of propaganda rhythm and microblogging promotion of the year exactly the same. But on my personal observation, today's headlines do not seem to PR, and other ways to publicize this feature.

Today, when we open today's headlines, this feeling is not like watching a news aggregation APP, but rather a polymerization of the know, microblogging, WeChat, news client "monster."

Third, WeChat

Recently, the WeChat applet beta progress has been more than two weeks, the latest news shows that WeChat applet can be started directly from the desktop. According to the introduction of Tencent, developers can quickly develop a small program, a small program can be easily within the WeChat to obtain and disseminate, while an excellent user experience.


(Network diagram shows, "small program" can be directly on the phone entrance to the desktop)

Compared to the mobile phone Baidu and today's headlines, WeChat ambition is greater, big want to include the essence of the entire mobile Internet. But in any case, the more "bloated" is not a WeChat itself, but all have the ability to import APP.

It is strange that those who have been used to say things in public, "the original intention of the product" have been their initiator of selective forgotten, we all can not wait to make their APP become "omniscient"

For the above-mentioned product upgrades, the giants of foreign rhetoric is basically "technology upgrades necessary changes." However, regardless of how the giants "packaged" their product updates and visions in technical terms, the real motivations for these revisions are not just "technological competition" but "market-level competition."

A set of data and three super-APP revision, the business logic behind it is obvious: a game has begun, the mobile Internet super giant who are trying to pull the loss of "user attention" back.

When almost all users learn to use Baidu instead of "ask the teacher", learn to look at the newspaper instead of watching the headlines, learn to use Alipay to replace the wallet instead of money, learn to use WeChat to sell things instead of opening the store, those who have served as a " A class of teachers, "began to cry: Come on, come on, your phone does not require other teachers, I have one is enough.

This is not a product quality change caused by artificial intelligence, but a giant launched the "grab all the stock of Internet users," the decisive battle.

There is war where the outcome, who will be out?

There is a proverb on the table: When you look around the table, if you can not find a fool to come, then got up to leave, because that fool is you!

In fact, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and other financial giants in the financial gambling will adopt a similar strategy, only to find that fool, will eventually decide to bet. Obviously, several major mobile Internet giants have to chip in their own housekeeping products, but who is about to be eaten by a fool?

In the mobile Internet world, there is a proverb: "boss second fight, death is the youngest." This phenomenon has occurred frequently in the major vertical areas, network about cars, electricity providers, online travel, mobile payments and other areas have occurred in a similar situation.

But now, with the penetration of mobile Internet users has reached a high point, "the second fight boss, death is the youngest" is no longer just a vertical field, "Wolidou" phenomenon, but rose to the mobile Internet camps Comprehensive strength of the positive PK.

The next stage of the mobile Internet, the following may occur in the strange scene: today's headlines and smart phone distribution Baidu Sike, the name of the name of the most injured is not other news applications, but the knowledge and the shell.

In other words, the kind of application to a "standard" application of a product thinking is collapsing, replaced by a functional competition. Who cover a wider range of products, who is to stay to the final flow of the entrance. Look back at a stage on the mobile Internet, a mobile QQ can be broken down into QQ, QQ space, QQ-mail, and several applications, which a number of applications can be independent development and growth. This is probably the so-called "long-term" and "long-term".

For giants exaggerated APP revision, we can also be understood as a result of mobile Internet traffic shortage of "hungry". In any case, a big wash is about to start, some "small and the United States" will take the lead for the giants of the war under the lie-gun.

Has been a large number of studies and surveys to prove that consumers use mobile phone habits change on the mobile Internet industry had a significant impact. A mobile software from the birth, the user high-speed growth, peak period, to the product out of the market cycle is shorter and shorter, many phenomenon-level products, but ultimately "flash in the pan."

We seem to have no patience to go to "early adopters".

Perhaps the fate of the mobile Internet is "we"

This is not alarmist, as early as 2015, the brutal growth of mobile Internet there has been resistance: the mainstream mobile phone users are losing the adventure of emerging APP psychology.

Earlier Fiksu data reports showed that the cost of acquisition and retention in the mobile market had reached a record high in October 2015. Key metrics for mobile application users' acquisition and retention costs continue to rise significantly year-on-year, and installation and distribution costs have increased over the past few months.

IOS publishing costs (CPL) which grew 75%, Android grew 169%. IOS installation cost per unit (CPI) grew 54%, Android grew 59%.

APP producers are increasingly difficult to get their products into the mass of mobile phones in the past, the cost of an APP is about $ 2, but now, through advertising and marketing, registration incentives, the first consumer subsidies to the package of measures to get a pay Level users of the cost of about 100 times.

Let's look at those in our cell phone sit back and relax:

According to Ereli APP index shows that in October ranked the top ten APP WeChat, QQ, mobile Taobao, love Fantastic Art, Alipay, mobile Baidu, Sina microblogging, Tencent video, QQ browser, Sogou input method, all-in-one BAT giant background. When we continue to see down TOP20, TOP50 and even TOP100, those familiar APP more or less have a connection with the BAT.

Mobile Internet is not so much created APP, it would be better to say that it spawned tens of millions of lazy cancer patients. Nowadays some of the most popular products can actually reflect the phenomenon of late lazy cancer late symptoms, such as Baidu has a magic search box, 360 and Sogou not been shaken, but eventually that "thousands of people face" push news headlines today grab To the limelight. With today's headlines, spontaneous retrieval behavior of the scene has been severely inhibited.

QQ's fate is not much better. QQ Tencent as the earliest period of a social product, the QQ number, QQ name keyword search function to allow thousands of users and strangers to establish a connection.

But to the era of WeChat, add a friend of the scene, but not the "keyword search add" this one, replaced by "near the people" and "drift bottle", and contacts recommended friends.

Visible, "lazy cancer plus body users" have been accustomed to the results of the system to push, and gradually stop the spontaneous exploration behavior. Mobile Internet will not die, the death of "more small and the possibility of the United States." We finally chose the world that giants promised with big data and artificial intelligence: now, here is the common "best solution" for everyone.

Finally, a talk, a recent Peking University Associate Professor Xu Kaiwen at the Ninth New Oriental Family Education Summit, pointed out that the first year of freshman, including undergraduate and graduate students, of which 30.4% of students hate learning, or that learning is not intentional , There are 40.4% of the students that life does not make sense. One of them argues that I am now living just as someone else's logic is to live.

I remember a well-known early works of Wells called "time machine", the author describes a situation of 802701:

In the long-term development process, science and technology continue to progress gradually to the heyday of human society. Substantial abundance of material causes those who are in the ruling class of the race began to degenerate, this intellectual and physical function of the excessive degradation of the final degenerate into predators.

In the science fiction story, "lazy change the world" ending a bit appalling.

Is this alarmist?

The future of things, who knows.

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