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iPhone X will be like Cook's wish to Apple once again "revival" it?

via:雷锋网     time:2017/9/29 17:09:20     readed:222

(original title:iPhoneX will let Apple once again "revival" it? )

So the question came, iPhone X really able to complete this arduous task?

One, more expensive price, hold up the gross profit?

As Apple's revenue in the "pillar", the importance of the iPhone business is self-evident. In fact, this year around the iPhone price of the discussion is particularly lively.

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"IPhone has become expensive", can be said that this is a lot of people Apple's visual experience. This feeling even in the Apple stock price. On the day of the conference, before the official announcement of the iPhone X price, Apple shares rose steadily, after the announcement of the price began to decline rapidly, the overall decline of nearly 2%.

Lei Feng network also use Google Trends for the search, keywords were set to "iPhone + expensive", "iPhone + cheap". From the two after the conference after the increase point of view, there is no doubt that we still think the iPhone "expensive."

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So what is the relationship between price and Apple's performance? Not long ago, GuangfaSecuritiesAlso made a statistic in its report (above). You can see the history of Apple products sales were ladder-like trend, while the iPhone's ASP (average selling price) is also growing, so that Apple's performance can be improved steadily. This can not help but produce a subjective guess: more and more expensive iPhone, Apple is actually a price manipulation means.

But this speculation itself is not established, the problem lies in the iPhone pricing strategy.

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Although Apple has never been open a specific pricing process, but from all the signs, hardware costs are still the most important factor. According to foreign media finishing iPhone repair hardware cost assessment, iPhone hardware cost figures and the ratio between the price, has remained at around 30%. This stable ratio, certainly Apple intentionally.

Until the iPhone 7, the proportion has changed, rose to 37%, which means that from the hardware point of view, Apple's income but reduced. Although the release of the iPhone 8, the proportion of numbers has declined, but 35% of this figure is still higher than the previous iPhone.

This ratio has been a lot of people, the media interpreted as Apple's "profiteering", and in fact, the remaining 70% is not all taken away by Apple, about 30-40% of the income but also to Apple huge Complex to the overall ecological system. In order to sum up the above, it is not difficult to speculate on two conclusions: Apple's pricing probability or hardware costs; Apple will also fine-tune the ratio, but not for the final revenue results.

Second, China, is Apple's real battlefield?

Since the price is not the most important, then what is the most important thing? In fact, far away in the horizon, near the front - China.

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According to Hong Kong science and technology author Odin statistics, Apple's Q1iPhone revenue over the years the geographical distribution is very obvious. If the iPhone6 ​​iPhone is another brilliant 2015, then the iPhone 6S / 7 these two generations actually Apple once again entered a relatively "downturn", but the Greater China region, Apple's turnover fell the most ruthless, but also in the iPhone 7 release, other areas of revenue are beginning to pick up the case, the Greater China region is actually still continue to decline.

The rise of domestic mobile phones with a very close relationship, according to statistics show that the media statistics in 2016, China's smart phone sales accounted for, OPPO accounted for 18% market share; Huawei accounted for 17.6% market share; vivo market share of 15.4 %, While the apple was 14.6%.

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The rise of domestic mobile phones with a very close relationship, according to statistics show that the media statistics in 2016, China's smart phone sales accounted for, OPPO accounted for 18% market share; Huawei accounted for 17.6% market share; vivo market share of 15.4 %, While the apple was 14.6%.

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It is worth mentioning that, although the market share is a little bit of domestic smart phone to eat, but Apple's "diehard" does not seem to shake, according toTencentCDC July 1616 statistics show that: Apple's user loyalty as high as 77%. In contrast, user loyalty to the second third of Huawei and millet continues to use both brands with only 59% and 45% of users. While Huawei and millet users were 17%, 21% of users said they may switch to the use of Apple.

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Resulting in the side of the loss of users, one side of the reasons for more and more loyal users still lies in the system and ecology. The same is based on Tencent CDC survey, iOS user loyalty is quite high, reaching 78%, while Andrews loyalty is only 59%.

Third, iPhone X can bring Apple's hope "revival" it?

First of all, Apple must explain the "revival", and other mobile phone brands, Apple's "revival" is not a single individual models sold, or simply increase the revenue, to some extent there are brand reputation, user feedback And so on. Although not very strict, but the iPhone's revenue situation can indeed better reflect the attitude of consumers.

One of the important factors is the actual sale of the iPhone price, need to pay special attention to is that this is not simply put the price of each section of the iPhone together, and then the average number of things finished. But according to Apple earnings, with the specific business revenue and sales data removed.

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According to Lei Feng net statistics, from Q2 to date, Apple's overall business line in the iPhone's actual "average price" has been between 600-700 US dollars fluctuations. Obviously, the user for the high standard iPhone 7 / 7Plus purchase intention is not strong.

On the other hand, the early sale of the iPhone 8 has directly encountered the "embarrassment", after the sale, a large proportion of users after ordering the iPhone 8, but chose to reject and return. This pair of users of the demands and then obviously - I want to change the new iPhone; we do not iPhone 8; we want iPhone X.

Although according to the previous Taiwan Kai Ke Securities analyst Guo Ming 錤 estimates, iPhone X manufacturing has a key threshold, its new use of a comprehensive screen output is only about 10,000. If the previous quarterly 40-50 and 70 million units of Apple's iPhone sales data to estimate, even if Apple has a certain parts of the inventory, iPhone X is still a high probability of the phenomenon of out of stock. And the emergence of cattle, roasted seeds and other phenomena will "force" some users to the iPhone 8. But we have reason to believe that in the next few quarters, iPhone X's sale will further push the Apple iPhone's "average price."

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Another key point is "change the tide." According to the Baidu Flow Research Institute's "mobile device" traffic data, the current iOS system mobile device models accounted for the most or the iPhone 6, accounting for 18.91%, after 4 models are iPhone 6S, iPhone 6 Plus, iPhone 6S Plus, iPhone 7 Plus, the corresponding proportion was 13.79%, 13.17%, 10.92%, 9.34%. While the iPhone 7 is directly to the first 7, accounting for only 7.32%.

Another point worth noting is that although the current proportion of iPhone 7 / 7Plus is still rising, but if the increase after the sale of the situation to statistics, iPhone 7 / 7Plus 11 months after the sale of the proportion of 7.32% and 9.34% , While the iPhone 6S / 6S Plus corresponding to the sale of 11 months after the proportion of 11.98% and 8.53%. In the Apple loyal users, iPhone 7 / 7Plus this generation of product replacement rate is not as good as iPhone 6S / 6S Plus.

It is not difficult to see that the potential replacement of Apple's new generation of mobile phone users may actually want to buy iPhone after 2015, all Apple users included, the overall sales potential is huge. Comprehensive above mentioned price issues, two factors at the same time high expectations, and further pulled the industry for Apple's next performance expectations.

Lei Feng network summary: iPhone X sale effect is "weathervane"

Although according to the above analysis and estimates, we finally get a more positive results, but this estimate also has the possibility of reversal. Reverse the key point or price, even if the iPhone X 999 dollar pricing does not seem to be 4 digits, and the domestic price is still 4 digits rather than 5 digits.

But in the previous new reports, there are more than one media and evaluation agencies to the iPhone X on the "history of the most expensive", "million iPhone" terms, and further push the domestic users for the "iPhone is very expensive" impression. But in turn, the Chinese market in the complex stages of shopping channels, such as ants chanting, Jingdong white bars and so on may make users more easy to buy money to buy iPhone. This kind of small variable will continue to affect the iPhone X in China's specific performance.

Anyway, now from the iPhone X official sale also left 35 days. 7 weeks later, how many users will go to Apple shop line up? How many people will go to Taobao, Jingdong and other channels to buy? Cattle and the iPhone X who can put the iPhone 8 money earned back? Apple will be the next overall performance of the best direction.

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