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Le valuation of a discount of billions of dollars risk exposure back to equity pledge agencies

via:CnBeta     time:2017/11/16 7:01:48     readed:251

The valuation of 3.91 yuan, compared to 15.33 yuan music stop the suspension price, discount reached 74.49%. This price theoretically allows a large number of equity pledges Jiayue Ting burst positions. Has been unable to fulfill the promises of listed companies Jiayue Ting, may also be unable to redeem pledged shares. This means that financial institutions will be passively at risk.

After the First Financial Group, since 2013, Jia Yueting handled a total of 34 equity pledges, 19 pledges have not yet been lifted the information, involving 13 financial institutions and a "mysterious" pledge side. This reporter has learned that the pledge rate of these financing is generally 2 to 4 fold, if the valuation of 3.91 yuan, providing pledges or institutions will face billions of risk exposure. Among them, the "mysterious" pledge side that provides nearly 10 billion financing to Jiayue Pavilion will face the risk of more than 3 billion yuan explosion. As valuations continue to dwindle, the quest for institutions and retail investors in the quilt is put on brutal loss expectations.

Pledged book "was" explosion warehouse

Music Watch three quarterly shows, Jiayue Ting is still the largest shareholder of Music Watch, held in totalstockAbout 1.024 billion shares, the proportion of 25.67% stake, of which 1.02 billion shares were pledged, the pledge ratio reached 99.53%. After the meltdown capital crisis, all the shares held by Jia Yueting have been frozen.

Taking the closing price of music video before the suspension of 15.33 yuan (after ex-dividend basis) calculation, Jia Yunting pays LeTV shares market value reached 15.637 billion yuan. If the latest valuation of 3.91 yuan point of view, Jiayue Ting pledged book devaluation to 4.004 billion yuan. This means that the financial institutions that once rendered generosity to Jia Youting and pledged cash will face a huge risk exposure if Jiayue Ting is unable to redeem the funds.

According to the announcement of the First Financial Channel, Jia Yueting handled 34 equity pledges since 2013, of which only 15 pledges were clearly released. There are no 19 pledges of pledge to lift pledges, involving 10 brokers, one trust, two banks and one unidentified pledgee.

Wind data further show that the above pledge is still in the state, the openSecurities3 pens; CITIC Securities, Guosen Securities, Shanxi Securities, Ping An Trust two each; Minsheng Bank, Haitong Securities, Monarch Securities, Orient Securities, Zhongtai Securities, Southwest Securities, Ping An Securities have a sum.

Jiayue Ting maximum pledge occurred on October 27, 2015, the 467 million shares held by its restricted shares, 40 million outstanding shares, a total of 507 million shares pledged, representing the then held by the music network shares of 64.81% . However, without disclosing the specific pledge party, the type of the pledgee only shows up as a general company. Jiayue Ting rely on the pledge of 507 million shares, cash amounting to nearly 10 billion yuan.

In October 2015, when Jia Youting pledged the pledge, the average price of LeTV was around RMB 50 and the dividend was 25.67 yuan / share. If the pledge rate remained at 40%, then the pledged price would be about 10 yuan after the excuse. First Financial Prior to the information obtained, LeTV equity pledge ratio did not reach 40%, but at between 24% to 38%. Conservative calculation, Jiayue Ting average pledge was about 8 yuan / share.

Reporters learned from the brokerage firms, brokers pledged stock business, the general warning line is usually 160%, usually 140% of the liquidation line, near the line of warning funds will notify the financing side to add pledges or additional margin, if the fall below the level Warehouse line, will be required to terminate the transaction redemption, unable to redeem will be forced to open.

According to the warning line and the flat line calculation, Jiayue Ting 507 million shares pledged warning line ex-dividend is about 12.8 yuan / share, the open-line is about 11.2 yuan / share. In view of this, LeTV net suspension price from about two limit, if the three limit will break through the open line. The Harvest and easy square to 3.91 yuan valuation, lower than the open line of about 65%.

On January 3, 2015, Jiayuenting also made a similar pledge that Haitong Securities had pledged a large amount of 26 million pledges to Haitong Securities for the development of LeTV's ecological business. Using the same method as above, Pledged warning line is about 4.76 yuan / share, the open-line is about 4.17 yuan / share, are higher than the valuation of 3.91 yuan.

Going forward again, in 2014, Jiayuenting conducted fragmented stock pledging financing almost every month. In 2014, the average selling price of the LeTV network was about 9 yuan. According to this average price, the average pound warning line for Jiayuenting was 4.5 yuan / share, and the average open-end line was about 3.93 yuan / share, both higher than 3.91 yuan valuation.

This means that taking the latest valuation given by the public funds as a reference, all the stocks that Mr. Joyce pledged to the hands of a public body have already burst their positions. According to the price after ex-dividend, CBN roughly estimates that the financial institutions that provide equity pledge for Jiayuenting may face billions of exposures. Among them, 507 million shares of "mysterious" institutions will face more than 3 billion yuan exposure.

"The actual risk exposure will not look so big book, music as the middle also made a fixed increase, delivery." Shanghai, a brokerage firm on the First Financial said that the general large institutions to the GEM pledge rate will not reach four Discount, and sometimes only two fold, will also undertake some of the risk commitment, for example, there will be a corresponding clause, agreed to give priority to ensuring the interests of fund-holders.

Niu casual institutions are seriously injured

LeTV November 11 evening announcement said Jia Yueting said that because of music as the non-listed system and its own funds, debt reasons, has been unable to fulfill the commitments of the loan to the listed company, and holdings of shares of listed companies commitment to the composition of listed companies Default. This is considered to be indefinite suspension of the music video to re-shadow, but also become November 15 a public agency and then the music video valuation of the direct cause of the cut.

With a price of $ 15.33 (after ex-rights) before the music video was suspended, this means that there will be a continuous 13 daily limit from the valuation of $ 3.91. This is a serious injury to investors who hold the music watch, regardless of whether they are institutional or retail investors.

Among the shareholders of the music Watch agency, a total of 34 funds Shigekura Music Watch, the number of shares held 1.30 billion shares, the total market capitalization of 1.407 billion yuan. Among them, China Post Fund, the highest proportion of shares, reaching 2.89%. In addition, Central Huijin Asset Management Co., Ltd. also owns 2.2% of LeTV.

In August 2016, LeTV distributed a total of 107 million shares to four target subscribers at a price of 45.01 yuan per share. In addition to the Treasury Fund subscription 3910 shares, Harvest Fund subscription 2133 shares, China Post Fund subscription 2133 shares, Niu Sanzhang Jianping also invested 1119000000 yuan, subscription 24880000 shares.

At that time, the price of fixed assets increased by about 22.5 yuan, more than 5.7 times that of Harvest and E-Fund, which means that the floating-deficits of the organizations participating in the increase are getting bigger and bigger.

In fact, the investors involved in the set increase in August this year, the stock has been sold, but due to the indefinite suspension of music Watch, are unable to sell the stop loss.

In the view of the above brokerage, Jia Yunting personal financial crisis and the music network's share price is related. If the music network resumption of trading, the stock price decline is bound to be inevitable, the first is triggered by the risk of equity pledge. The equity pledge risk trigger, in turn will result in the stock price plunge in the chain reaction, financing for Jiayue Ting financial institutions, as well as investors involved in the music Investors are put at risk.

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