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10 quarterly return to China's mobile phone first: millet victory geometry?

via:CnBeta     time:2018/2/8 12:06:04     readed:373

Although the 2017 annual report of IDC China's handset market shows that it ranked fourth in China's handset market last year with a shipment volume of 55.1 million units and a market share of 12.4%, it is 35.8 million lower than the 90.9 million unit ranked first in China's handset market Ministry; market share of 20.4% difference of 8 percentage points. So the question came, millet really Lei Jun said in 10 quarters, which is about two and a half years back to China's mobile phone market first?

Here we may wish to take a look at the basic performance of millet phone last year, in order to be fair, whether it is global or China's mobile phone market, we have quoted well-known market statistics firm IDC data. From the perspective of the global smart phone market, shipments of millet handsets increased by 96.9% and 74.5% respectively over the same period of last year in the fourth quarter and the whole year of last year.

In contrast, in China's smart phone market, shipments of Xiaomi handsets grew 57.6% and 32.6% respectively in the fourth quarter and the whole year of last year, representing 59.4% and 43.8% of the growth in the global handset market respectively. As a result, It is not difficult to see that both the quarterly growth and the annual growth rate of millet in China's mobile phone market are significantly lower than the global market, which means that China's mobile phone market as a whole dragged down the rapid growth of millet mobile phones. With the future, including Huawei, OV and other friends in the Chinese mobile phone market leading Xiaomi overweight overseas markets, including Xiaomi mobile phone overseas markets, and even the largest market in India, Xiaomi continued rapid growth in overseas markets to stimulate its The overall market strategy and the rapid growth of the efficiency must be diluted.

Take Huawei as an example. From its founder and chairman Ren Zhengfei, 90% of the world's population last year was poor. Low-end mobile phone companies have a poor market. Do not underestimate them. Huawei should also make low-end machines. The remarks and the future in China's mobile phone market to replace millet as the representative of China's Internet phone glory recently announced the construction of dual-engine overseas development model to the United States, Europe, Russia, Africa, Turkey, India, Indonesia and other key areas, Relying on the Internet light asset model, the global mobile phone market has become the "three years ago five" brand 2018 strategy and overseas market sales in 2020 to reach 50% of the target set, we can easily find this global smart phone third and China's mobile phone market, the first manufacturers have targeted spearheads directly to the millet, especially overseas markets.

For example, Russia, Africa, Turkey, India, Indonesia and other glory brands belonging to Huawei handsets focus on the development of this year's area of ​​focus is Xiaomi last year and overseas markets until Xiaomi mobile phone global growth until the main market. From this perspective, Xiaomi back to China's mobile phone market, the development of the first goal quite quite some helpless meaning, after all, previously in the Chinese mobile phone market, a moment of millet phone and its advocacy of "outlet theory" values, under the impact of glory already Proved to be a failure, combined with Lei Jun in his speech last year, a strong rebound in millet last year and the next 10 quarters back to China's mobile phone market first magic weapon is "to see innovation with a telescope to see the quality of the microscope," that innovation can determine the Millet can fly How high, and the quality of millet to determine how far the strategy to defeat their previous honor strategy is exactly the same, this helplessness has been fully reflected.

Since millet will innovation and quality listed as a strong rebound in millet last year and return to China's mobile phone market in the first strategy, then the fact what? As the industry knows, statistics from the aforementioned IDC and other related institutions show that the only market promoting the strong rebound of millet phones last year was the overseas markets, and the Central Indian market played a crucial role. It is a well-known fact that the Indian mobile phone market at this stage is definitely not a high-value market driven by innovation and quality, that is, the rapid growth of millet mobile phones in India depends on their cost performance. Therefore, even if Lei Jun explained how its mobile phone market in India is relying on innovation and quality to achieve rapid growth, leaving the low-cost millet phone will never achieve such rapid growth. But the current and future domestic handset market is very different from India.

According to market research firm GFK statistics show that despite the global smart phone market last year, the overall shipments growth slowed sharply, but mobile phone ASP has risen, especially in the Chinese market, more than 2,000 mobile phones are becoming the main shipping , Which is consistent with the conclusion of "China Unicom Terminal Big Data Report 2017" released by China Telecom recently.

The report said that last year's Chinese mobile phone market, 3000-6000 yuan share of nearly 4% growth has become the most varied part of the price of all segments, the major Chinese mobile phone brands finally stand on the 2500 yuan price segment, And continue to 3,500 yuan price of more than tempted. At the same time, the market below 700 yuan and 1000-2000 prices continued to shrink, while the share of the price segment of 700-1,000 yuan remained stable at a low level at 5%. The industry know that the following 700 yuan and 1000-2000 yuan price segment is exactly the main price segment supporting the shipment of millet phone.

In view of this trend of China's mobile phone market and after the defeat with Glory, Leifunh understands that in order to eventually return to the first place in China's smart phone market, only by complying with the above market trend changes and advancing to higher price segments, Whether it is a gimmick or substance, innovation and quality are millet out of cost-effective, high middle and low premium choice.

But the attendant problem is that Huawei and OV will be their biggest competitors when Xiaomi enters the middle and high price segment, and these rivals have established their own brand image and have mature and strong products in these price ranges combination. Therefore, Xiaomi wants to really defeat OV in the competition in new fields, especially Huawei (Huawei, after all, is the leader in China's smart phone market), which not only needs innovation and quality, but also needs better capabilities in this area. Small wood with this ability?

From Lei Jun's speech, the self-developed surging S1 processor chip, millet MIX 2 full screen and patents to prove Xiaomi's innovative ability. However, the actual situation is that since the release of the surging S1 processor chip last year, it has been in a silent state. At least, it has not seen any Xiaomi cellphone that brought the Xiaomi mobile phone business due to its sales volume or brand premium Substantive positive impact and promotion, and surging S1 processor chip since its inception, because of its birth background, innovation has been subject to the industry's question.

As for the full screen, in addition to its first proposed name, the advent of a large number of full screen mobile phones on the market and the rapid decline in the price of full screen mobile phones appear to prove that full screen is at best a marketing selling point rather than a high threshold innovation. As for patents, although Lei Jun claimed in his speech that millet had accumulated more than 24,000 patent applications in the world and the total number of authorizations reached 5,920, of which about half were global patents, the courage that has been declining recently dared to first patent Take the millet "knife" (filed a patent suit against millet) to see whether millet patents reflect the true ability to innovate millet also have questions. The fact is that a considerable portion of the patents in millet from Broadcom, Intel,Microsoft, Nokia and other manufacturers purchased, rather than their own truly innovative income.

As we all know, 5G and AI will be the future development trend of the smart phone industry and a new focus of competition. For this reason, Huawei, OV, etc. all have their own layout. Huawei, who started as a communications company, should not have to elaborate. As early as the beginning of 2015, OPPO has formally established a communication standard team and started to participate in 5G R & D work at the beginning of the 5G standard formulation. Currently in all 5G related areas, including the network, terminals, business and other aspects of the deep technical reserves. OPPO in the world-renowned standards organization 3GPP, the number of contributions submitted by the OPPO in the forefront of global terminal companies, and in addition to their own accumulation, OPPO in many aspects, including China Mobile, including a number of carriers also conducted in-depth cooperation with China Mobile, for example, OPPO assisted Mobility in resolving a number of key network operation issues in the 5G standard-setting process and helped develop the 5G terminal specifications and test specifications. After Vivo was unwilling, a 5G R & D center was set up in Beijing in 2016. The R & D team consists of industry experts and senior personnel in relevant fields. In 2017, it submitted over 600 technical contributions to 3GPP and became the most influential 3GPP One of the terminal companies.

As for AI, with the announcement of the glory of Magic in the end of 2016 and the release of Huawei Mate10 and Glory V10 last year, Huawei has not only become the first mobile phone manufacturer in China to use AI for smartphones, but its AI has evolved from system-level AI to the lower chip level AI. Similar to Huawei, despite OV's AI innovation and capabilities less than Huawei, but they have the AI ​​as the focus of its future smart phone technology innovation field.

Compared with the Huawei and OV innovations in 5G and AI and some achievements that have been made, we did not see Xiaomi's innovation and layout of 5G and AI in Lei Jun's speech. Even the 5G and AI words did not appear. This is for innovation and quality to re-show people in the future Chinese mobile phone market directly against Huawei and OV millet I do not know whether it is negligence or irony?

In summary, we believe that from the strong rebound in millet last year to the next 10 quarters to return to China's mobile phone market first, whether in the past or the future trend, Xiaomi failed to show that they have more than the Chinese market rankings in Before the innovation and quality strategy advantages, coupled with these rivals in the current market accumulated brand and product advantages itself in line with the future trend of China's mobile phone market, millet 10 consecutive defeat OV and Huawei in the next quarter, to re-issue the first Chinese mobile phone market The goal of winning is unpredictable.

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