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One picture read: why SpaceX is worth only 0.2 millet at the present value of "breaking through the sky"

via:博客园     time:2018/2/13 12:50:48     readed:885

Space pioneer Constantine


Sohu Science / technology / Cui Peng cartography / Han Zhao

On the morning of February 7th in Beijing, the Falcon Heavy, the most powerful human rocket, has completed the first flight. It will send a Tesla Roadster to the Earth Mars transfer orbit. Mask said the vehicle will fly in the universe for more than 1 billion years.

SpaceX and Elon Musk succeeded in detonating a circle of friends again.

Public information shows that SpaceX completed 18 launches.


That is to say, SpaceX has completed more than half of the US launch, equivalent to China's launch, two times that of Europe. In 2018, its target was 30 launches.

Oracle founder Ellison says he will donate all his money to Musk after his death to explore the future of mankind. The New York Times calls Musk a

As a family,

If we move our gaze back to China, the valuation of the US group has exceeded 30 billion dollars, and today's headlines are worth more than 30 billion dollars and the value of millet is over 100 billion dollars.

That is to say, SpaceX is only 0.2 millet at the moment, even lower, why? Sohu technology has carried out some visits with curiosity.

Looking for reference

An investor told Sohu technology that the valuation of cutting-edge technology companies can not be compared with those facing C users. For example, the annual output value of AI industry is also less than that of shampoo companies, and the volume of consumer company facing mass users is larger.

Sohu technology further inquires the market value of some of the B leading companies.

First, BHP, a global mining sector that operates oil and minerals.

Its revenue in the 2017 fiscal year is 38 billion 200 million yuan, the profit before tax is 10 billion 300 million dollars, and the latest market value is 121 billion 800 million yuan (the closing time in the eastern time of February 9th), which is 6 times the SpaceX valuation.

Followed by Caterpillar (Caterpillar), it is the world's largest manufacturer of construction machinery and mining equipment, and is also one of the largest diesel engine manufacturers in the world.

According to the latest results, Caterpillar's annual sales revenue was $45 billion 500 million in 2017. Its latest market value is $88 billion 770 million (as of the February 9th stock market closing in the east of the United States), more than 4 times more than the SpaceX valuation.

While the world's largest electrical equipment General Electric (GE), also has a manufacturing jet aircraft pilot navigation system, radar and space flight operations, can carry the atomic bomb and hydrogen warhead Atlas rockets, rocket general production from thor.

Since the company divested many businesses, its market value continued to decline in recent years, but it still has 129 billion 500 million dollars at the end of the eastern time February 9th, which is 6 times the SpaceX valuation. ,

If the company area is refined again and the leading aerospace company is selected as a reference, Sohu Science and Technology has found two other companies: Lockheed.

SpaceX and the former have a strong connection. In 2014, SapaceX filed a lawsuit against the United Launch Alliance, by Boeing and Lockheed, in the United States Federal Court.

All along, Lockheed.


Lockheed Martin is the main arms business, have a certain particularity, Boeing business for large B end users, and civil project, we take this as a reference object.

According to the latest results, Boeing received $9 billion 100 million in cash flow in the first nine months of 2017, and revenue in 2017 would be between $960 and $98 billion. Boeing's defense business includes Boeing's space and security services, delivering 42 aircraft and a satellite at the four seasons.

Boeing's current market value is $196 billion 586 million (as of the February 9th stock market closing in the east of the United States), nearly 10 times the SpaceX valuation.

But a well-known American hedge fund investors to remind the Sohu of science and technology in 2017, Boeing's commercial aircraft, defense and global services three business backlog amount has reached $488 billion, and $10 billion of SpaceX this order does not belong to the same order of magnitude.

He thinks

How to evaluate SpaceX in the end?

At the beginning of December 2017, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a report, SpaceX will become a $50 billion predators ($50 billion juggernaut), this estimate is based on the SpaceX has been completed within one year of 15 successful launches on.

In the report, Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the elevator invented by Elisha Otis has directly changed contemporary architectural design and, in turn, affected the face of all major cities, using the

Most of the three first-stage arrows launched this time have been recovered, and two of the booster rockets have been used before.

Mature recovery technology will lead to a steady drop in launch costs, the Falcon 9 rocket can be reused, a single launch price will be reduced by 30%.

But the analysis reported that even if SpaceX reduced the cost of a single launch to $5 million, the operating revenue from the launch of the rocket was still upper limit.

The launch manifest SpaceX show that in 2006 the company has completed a total of 45 flights, the company also plans to launch another 70. In early 2015, it received an order of NASA worth 4 billion 200 million dollars, sending astronauts and supplies to the international space station. Now the order has been accumulated over 10 billion dollars, and it is expected to get the multi billion dollar contract of the US Department of defense before 2020.

The Wall Street journal has disclosed a financial document within the SpaceX, showing the company's financial situation in 2011-2015.


上述对冲基金的投资人告诉搜狐科技,SpaceX 目前一共融到了 15 亿美元,预计其 16 年的收入在 18 亿美元左右,17 年不会超过太多,加上其较低的利润率,目前 210 亿估值大概是 10 陪的收入和几百倍的利润,估值比较合理。

For Wall Street, this part of data is obviously not enough. They tend to think that SpaceX's potential cash cow potential is more reflected in its plan to build Satellite Internet in the next 2 years and to send humans to Mars in the next 7 years.

Among them, SpaceX's satellite Internet program plans to launch 4425 satellites and provide high-speed Internet services to the whole world, which will cost more than 10 billion dollars. It is regarded as an important business to drive the company's future revenue growth.


SpaceX's internal report predicts that by 2019, the company will be profitable from satellite Internet services and that revenue from that segment will exceed that of the current core rocket launch industry by 2025, which will cover more than 40 million users. And bring in $30 billion in revenue.

At the same time, manned space travel is also a more feasible project in the civil field. Liang Xiaohong, the former party secretary and vice president of China Academy of launch vehicle technology, said that 2018 is the first year of commercial space, and there are huge business opportunities in the field of commercial launch and space tourism.

Virgin Galactic, founded in 2010, has been working in this area for many years, and more than 700 people have paid down $250,000, including Stephen

Space X is scheduled to launch on 2018 with a new Falcon heavy rocket

These two businesses should push the SpaceX valuation to continue to rise.


One investor, who asked not to be named, told Sohu Technology











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