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Ali, Tencent "packaging" to lead the cloud computing, the bipolar pattern will be cured on this?

via:博客园     time:2018/4/2 18:05:34     readed:156

题图来自:视觉中国

After the 2017Q4 earnings report of the goose plant, the mysterious “other business” contributed 34.3% increment with 21.2% of the total revenue, exceeding 26.3% of the second-ranked game, which became the hot spot of this wave of financial report analysis.

From the report analysis, the mysterious "other business" principal includes payment and cloud computing. Tencent, which has no first-mover advantage in cloud computing, leverages the business foundation of games and video, and the ability to attract new customers through open ecology. It quickly develops power in cloud computing and becomes the second only to Ali in the short term.

It seems that in the field of cloud computing, where the surface is very lively, more and more people are showing the scenes of both Alibaba and Tencent. The reason is that cloud computing has begun to shift from strong technical attributes to strong corporate service attributes.

Ali, Tencent & ldquo;Packing ” Leading Cloud Computing

From the perspective of business data, corporate development focus and industry performance, Alibaba and Tencent have “bundled” the advantages of the latecomers.

1, decision-making platform, business layer rush to attack

Tencent Cloud's landmark event should be in the mid-2016 Tencent "Cloud + Future" conference, where Madonna personally took the stage and put forward the widely circulated "Cloud" is "Internet + & rsquo; The first element of the "infrastructure" concept "strength Tencent cloud." Subsequently, Tencent’s cloud revenue increased by more than 200% in 2016 (the full fiscal year 2016 disclosure).

Regarding Tencent Cloud’s full-year revenue and financial report for 2017, there is no direct disclosure, so it may be helpful to guess the information of each party.

“Technology Ten Points ” "How much is Tencent Cloud's revenue for 2017? In the article, this figure is considered to be about 4.3 billion yuan after various extrapolations; billion Euronet is referring to Tencent Cloud’s revenue of 4.5 billion yuan in 2017; Business Week’s Chinese version quotes “Technology Ten.” See point of calculation, "" Tencent cloud's annual revenue is expected to reach 10 billion yuan level "".

According to Tencent's projected revenue of 10 billion in 2018 and the estimated 290 billion revenues in 2020 reported by the well-known Deutsche Bank report, the combined annual growth rate of 150% and the figure of 4.5 billion in 2017 are also reasonable. Based on the above, we can conclude that Tencent’s cloud revenue in 2017 should be around RMB 4.5 billion.

The decision-making tendency is even reflected in the direct business. In March 2017, Tencent Cloud delivered the cloud services on Xiamen's city affairs platform almost as cheaply. Apart from enriching the ecological considerations, Tencent Cloud’s “losing blood” of this It is impossible to do without a decision-making force.

Alibaba Cloud can be said to be supported by Ma Yun. In 2008, Ma Yun insisted on valuing Wang Jian in an employee's criticism. An e-commerce company insisted on cloud computing in the early days of disobedience. Now 10 years later, according to Ma Yun, Alibaba Cloud will have a profit of more than 10 billion yuan in 2020, exceeding the profit of 99% of listed companies.

2. Ali's share declines, but the proportion of Ali + Tencent continues to rise

Judging from the global industry structure, Alibaba Cloud has surpassed the top three in google and it is an indisputable fact. In the Chinese market, however, there have been some “interesting” phenomena.

First of all, it is the decline of Alibaba Cloud’s market share. In the 2017 Deutsche Bank report, Alibaba Cloud’s market share has been reduced from 65% (2016 annual report data) to 54%, and it is expected that this share will further decline to 40% by 2020.

Then, the overall share of Ali + Tencent cloud rose. Also in this report, Tencent’s current market share of around 9% will rise to 27% by 2020. This means that the total share of Ali + Tencent will further increase from 61% (54% + 9%) to 67% (40% +27%).

Obviously, on one side is the further narrowing of the gap between the two giants (from the disparity of 45% to the relatively close 13%), and on the other side are both "Bundled" continues to expand market share, occupying the domestic cloud market 2/3 of the country’s many other “clouds” can only share 1/3 of the share that may still fall. From the data point of view, Ali, Tencent's "bundling" and lead the cloud computing has gradually formed.

Returning to enterprise service is the fundamental industry logic of cloud computing

Although Alibaba and Tencent do not have the same style of staking and trapping in the Internet (Ali occupies and operates, Tencent shares and grants), the understanding of “corporate” is a common demand for the expansion of the two territories. From the frequent actions, we can find that corporate services have become one of the giants' strategic focus.

In June 2017 Tencent’s own product WeChat launched online version 2.0 merged with the enterprise product, and its strategic position was further promoted within the Tencent system. In terms of investment, Tencent has acquired shares in Sales Easy (CRM), Fast Legal Services (Legal Services), and Star Ring. Technology services (big data services), 驿氪 (retail marketing) and other enterprise service products.

The same is true of Ali, and its own actions include “20 million yuan start-up privilege”. In addition, Alibaba’s figures are found in well-known corporate service products such as Shang Tang Technology, Qiu Niu Yun, and Alien Digital.

Cloud computing services that belong to the IaaS domain are, in the final analysis, “corporate services”. In the face of 40 million enterprise users, enterprise service attributes rather than the “shared technologies” attribute can better reflect and realize cloud computing. Value, from this perspective thinking about the development of cloud computing may be more reasonable.

1. IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS blur the importance of corporate services

Since its inception, IaaS, PaaS and SaaS have been quarreling about who is the future. IaaS has the fastest growth and the largest volume. PaaS believes that it is important to “up and down” (though its size is not enough). SaaS believes that the former two are all services.

From the perspective of commercialization, all three hope to give customers a better experience and service, and constantly have the upper-level services that are just needed to become the lower standard, and they also continue to have lower-level services to integrate packages for upgrading to upper-level services.

阿里、腾讯“打包”领跑云计算,两极格局将就此固化?

Chart: IaaS, PaaS, SaaS Convergence Trends (Data Source: iResearch)

The fundamental reason for this convergence is that these three companies are all serving enterprises and they are all "business services". A type of product in this industry follows similar logic and goals rather than guarding their independent kingdoms. Technology faction. Services are more important than technology and hardware facilities, and companies are more concerned with the value of the services they purchase for their own success.

Obviously, cloud computing that belongs to IaaS is also in this big framework.

2. Both B and C have become cloud computing service objects

Looking at cloud computing from the perspective of business services rather than shared technologies can lead to different conclusions.

Just as nails and corporate WeChat products are sold to "customers", but they attach great importance to "users" experience, enterprise service products must consider the value of B-side (mainly BOSS and decision-making level of recognition), and To take into account the C-side experience (after all, the product still depends on employee use and feedback).

Contrary to traditional thinking that only emphasizes "customer", cloud computing may rely more and more on the experience of C-side services (although there is a big difference from the C-side service model). We can often hear complaints from programmers and operators on the Internet that the company's post-cloud operating experience is poor. Cloud computing still requires a lot of C-side product experience in terms of how to make users use it more easily and conveniently.

Therefore, the combination of B-side resource integration capabilities and C-side product experience came into being. It seems that Tencent has QQ and WeChat accounted for killer applications of the PC Internet and mobile Internet respectively, and has accumulated deep experience in the service C-side experience. This is also true of Ali and Amazon, which ranks one or two in the global e-commerce rankings. On the other hand, companies such as Baidu and Huawei may not have sufficient product experience on the C-side.

3, cloud computing from the business perspective to the business perspective

Internet products, "corporate services," are themselves undergoing a transformational mentality, not just a new tool under the original business philosophy.

In other words, cloud computing for enterprise services may be expected to be simplified or promoted instead of the overall value of the business. For example, how to serve customers, shape marketing ideas, optimize product design, and enhance organizational management flexibility. After all, under the logic of enterprise services, customer success is the key performance orientation. The highly uncertain environment brought about by the mobile Internet allows enterprises to overwhelm. If the external services accessed can provide more value, its user stickiness is self-evident. This is why the boundaries of IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS have begun to blur.

Obviously, Alibaba and Tencent, which have reached out to every corner of the Internet, are more capable of doing this type of output. When necessary, their cloud computing can provide many related values ​​beyond computing, such as optimizing enterprise technology by adjusting cloud computing setup. The relationship between R&D and the product department, this potential value advantage can often influence the choice of the enterprise cloud.

After the enterprise service is deepened, the cloud computing flywheel effect appears

The flywheel, originally intended to refer to a type of inertial power device that is slow to start but that is difficult to stop once it is turned, is a "flywheel effect" that is equally suitable for cloud computing that is considered from the perspective of business services.

1, the cost: over the "node" after the rapid decline

In many areas of the Internet, there is a non-linear drop in costs. After a user node, the marginal cost of new users is very low or even close to zero, but the benefits created are the same as those of previous users. Especially in the C-side products, due to factors such as social networks (such as WeChat) and functional stickiness (such as payment), new users continue to enter, old users are hard to lose, and the ultimate advantage is even greater.

From a business service perspective, the logic is similar. The relative cost of the marginal cost of cloud computing is shown in the figure:

阿里、腾讯“打包”领跑云计算,两极格局将就此固化?

Business services that are deeply internal to the business and focus on customer success have a strong user stickiness and are difficult to lose (the cost of replacing cloud computing is not low), while the advantage platform relies on resource capabilities and brand potential to attract more customers. The smaller the pressure, the higher the price of Shangyun to give customers more room for adjustment (in fact, the price of cloud computing is still one of the focuses of competition), leaving the living space for later adopters to be smaller.

2. Ecology: Geometrical Business Extension

Tang Daosheng, senior executive vice president of Tencent Group and president of the social networking business group, once said in an interview with the media that after the 3Q World War, Tencent “made awakening” from the bottom up and started to build an ecosystem that provides value to users together with third-party partners. After more and more partners have entered this ecosystem, cloud services have emerged as a platform to build common service users.

This shows that the beginning of cloud computing may have the characteristics of doing business services, and ecology has become one of its inherent characteristics.

This kind of coupled ecosystem is generally started within the enterprise. For example, the earliest use of Alibaba Cloud Computing Services was Taobao-based vendors, and Tencent’s major customers were QQ and WeChat. Subsequently, the cloud computing enterprise service ecosystem is expanding in two directions:

A, vertical integration. Similarly, using cloud computing, the needs of the vertical industry must be very similar. The more vertical companies the platform can integrate, the more able to introduce solutions with industry characteristics to solve customer demand individuation (the greater the volume, the stronger the demand is. ) Contradictions with the standardization of cloud computing services.

B. Associated integration. When the chain of services involves enough companies, cloud computing can integrate the associated services. For example, supply chain financial services and enterprise service ecosystem have a natural connection. The cloud computing platform extends to industrial upstream and downstream enterprises. Cooperation with financial companies can easily involve supply chain finance. Ali Small Credit is a typical representative.

In short, for enterprise customers, once they use a cloud computing enterprise service, data migration costs and interface change costs are very high, and it is very likely to be deeply tied to this cloud platform. Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud can easily consolidate their existing business ecosystem by serving upstream and downstream companies in their own ecosystems.

3, data: corporate services associated with other "B Plan" & rdquo;

BlockChain, Business Service, and Big data are the hottest B-series of Internet companies right now. In fact, whether it is Block Chain or Big data, it is very likely that you will need to use Business Service to realize commercial value. Business services and big data have formed an inseparable companionship.

Big data is the highest net value of corporate services, which can increase stickiness and extend a variety of ancillary services. As a result, Tencent Cloud has launched a “smart strategy” that includes big data platforms, smart recommendations, digital marketing, data visualization and other big data products, providing enterprises and developers with a complete big data solution, Alibaba Cloud launched The digital platform provides big data services.

Obviously, big data has a significant Matthew effect. The greater the amount of data aggregated by cloud computing, the better the analysis results and the easier it is for the followers to follow.

Cloud computing for enterprise services doesn't stop at "lower resources" ”

From the point of view of enterprise services, there is only one standard for cloud computing services for enterprise users: it can help enterprises develop better. The significance of cloud computing, from the current point of view, is to serve the enterprise, so that they can use the Internet to develop their business, support the company's snowball-like growth with continuous iterative Internet products, and support large-scale data analysis to support new customers and retention.

Indeed, in the past and even now, cloud computing's “hydropower coal” is still able to interpret the meaning of cloud services and their usage characteristics (on-demand, pay-as-you-go). However, along with the changes in business needs, cloud computing is also evolving. If only water and electricity are used, the company has only solved the worries about energy and materials, and the processes of production, operation, sales, and service have not undergone qualitative changes.

阿里、腾讯“打包”领跑云计算,两极格局将就此固化?

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