Yesterday, UBS issued a report saying that the price of the 5.8-inch iPhone X in 2018 will start at 1099 yuan, which may make many people unhappy. However, the bad news does not stop there. UBS made it clear in its second report that Apple’s dominance in China has ended.
Analyst Steven Milunovich said that since the iPhone 6/6 Plus changed its design, used a large screen and supported 4G, the iPhone’s influence in China peaked in 2015, and that year’s shipments accounted for the entire Chinese smartphone market. 25%. It can then start to decline. Now that there is only 19% of market share, the future sales of the iPhone in China will be flat, and growth in the long term will be very small.
UBS gave three reasons for the decline in iPhone share:
First of all,Huawei has put a lot of pressure on the high-end market and the mid-range market where the iPhone 6s is located. Although the iPhone still has dominance in the ultra-high-end market, it still cannot avoid the overall shrinking of Apple, and as the price of the iPhone becomes higher and higher. There are fewer and fewer people who can afford the new iPhone.
In 2015, we can fully believe that Apple's share in the primary and secondary consumer markets (on behalf of the high-end market) reached 40% to 50%, but now this figure has dropped to 20% to 30%. It can be seen that the total potential users of the Chinese smartphone market are 1.3 billion, and the total number of users in the Class 1 and Class 2 market is about 300 million. Apple can play between 1.5 and 220 million people.
Second,Apple has always adopted the old model iteration method for the low-end market. For example, now that the iPhone 8 is in the mainstream, 6s and 6 have become the mainstay of the low-end market, but UBS believes that Apple’s strategy is in China’s 3rd and 4th. Line cities are meaningless because their sales system in these cities is incomplete, and for these users, the functionality of the old model is already too backward.
Compared to the old iPhone, the new Android mid- and low-end models have larger batteries, newer designs, and better cameras... Obviously, Apple’s old models that are very popular all over the world occupy the low-end market. Occupation does not apply in China. The figure below can reflect the enormous pressure Chinese brands have brought to Apple and Samsung in recent years.
At last,The smart phone market, which generally slowed down the upgrade cycle, has also affected Apple. Now that the replacement cycle of Chinese smartphone users is getting longer, Apple has to face the same problem as other manufacturers.
In a previous Morgan Stanley report, they pointed out that Apple has seen slowdown in sales of devices such as the iPhone. The company is turning to software and other service businesses to ensure revenue and profit growth, such as Apple Music, App Store, etc. According to forecast, Apple's growth in 2018 will reach 2%.