Wen / Wu Bingjian
Source: 42 chapters (ID: myfortytwo)
This year's investment market can be said to be a "track" opportunity is the so-called small program, but we believe that the small program is too narrow, in fact, the nature of WeChat ecology.
Moreover, when you find out that people around you are watching this track, most of the very early investment opportunities have passed and the growth fund has entered, so we should try to dig out some of the new categories and new ones in WeChat. law?
The following is a summary based on a report I shared within Xianfeng. By reconsidering the nature behind this wave of WeChat ecological opportunities, perhaps we can draw some different conclusions and discover new opportunities.
First of all, why do we think WeChat has systemic opportunities? In the PC era, the browser accounted for 55% of the time, and on mobile phones, WeChat accounted for more than 55% of the time. In addition to chat, the consumption scenarios of reading and trading are also migrating to WeChat, which has caused content producers to start migrating to WeChat. Developers gradually regard WeChat as the first stop for publishing applications, and WeChat becomes an infrastructure and becomes a new one. Browser.
(Only represents the approximate magnitude, the market is changing rapidly, and the report cannot keep up with …)
The top ten companies in Wechat's valuation are the top ones. Nine of the ten households are involved in front-end new-style traffic play. They are teaming, distribution and fission. The commonality is that the front-end quickly starts to take off through these new games, and the supply side upgrades.
The reason why these opportunities appear is whether or not the essence is WeChat's traffic bonus? What is the reason behind the flow of dividends?
From PC to Mobile, the big opportunity is often brought by the new dimension of the smart phone. LBS brings opportunities for DDT and the U.S. group. The address book brings opportunities for WeChat, and the camera brings opportunities like this, voice belt. Come to Himalayan for such an opportunity.
If we consider WeChat as an independent terminal, what new dimensions does it bring? ——WeChat's address book is greatly enhanced.
In fact, our mobile phone's address book is no longer the phone's native address book, but WeChat address book, the relationship between the richness of the chain has also increased a lot of——Original number of contacts is only a few dozen, there are now Hundreds and a few thousand; originally we only had acquaintance relationship, there is still a half-acquaintance relationship; originally only point-to-point communication, now can communicate through groups and friends punctuality.
Based on the propagation of relationship chains, it brings opportunities such as “playing together”, “gathering” and “fun headlines”. Behind this is actually two types of traffic opportunities:
The first opportunity is to obtain cheaper traffic. At present, there are four kinds of gameplay, a lot of fights, gatherings, fission of mint reading (that is, the mode of people pulling people), and bargaining of enjoying things. There may be even more innovative gameplay, and we are constantly watching.
The second opportunity is more sinking channels, covering the incremental population. WeChat covers 1 billion monthly active users and has become an App Store covering different levels of users. Through WeChat communication, applications can more easily reach the sinking crowd and then develop their usage habits through the operation of WeChat Group.
WeChat's relationship chain makes it a natural fit for the distribution model.
The first batch of micro- merchants actually came from Amoy. Amoy offgraded the proportion of shares before and after 2013, and some of Amoy's customers started to transform into micro-business. The beginning of micro-business to sell mask-based, whether it is to the user's product quality, or to the owner of the benefits of sharing, are cutting leeks.
Gathering is the first to use the regular army to do micro-business. Although it used a very wild three-level or above distribution method, it has been doing compliance afterwards. The company still insists on two adherences, insists on deep supply chain, provides good quality goods, and insists on recruiting positive values. Gathering in 2017, GMV has increased 5 times compared to 2016 to reach 10 billion RMB.
The second wave of players using the distribution model is onion overseas warehouse and there are good things, are the formal two-tier distribution, onion overseas warehouse cut is the cosmetics category, there is a good thing cut is a fresh category, cut the category compared to gather More vertical. Vertical e-commerce in the PC era rarely ran out, so is it possible for vertical e-commerce on WeChat?
Because Wechat's periodical flow dividends, it is possible to increase this possibility. In the PC era, we assumed that the user acquisition cost (CAC) is 150 yuan, but the ARPU is only 75 yuan, which makes vertical e-commerce only two possibilities, one is to expand the category, ARPU is high, and he makes himself into Jingdong. One kind of account is always too late. When VCs do not invest money, they are hanging.
However, on WeChat, the user’s acquisition cost may have become only 30 yuan, and the account is naturally calculated. This gives the time window of the WeChat vertical electricity provider to run out.
The third wave of players may be large players, such as micro-election. Chen Qi and Jingdong of Mushroom Street jointly established a micro-election. Open the Jingdong page in WeChat, and you can see it in the second channel. At present, it is a micro merchant shopping channel, but in the future it is possible to do a large-scale micro-business platform. A large number of shopkeepers are organized for distribution and the back end is selected for supply chain supply.
When the distribution model is used universally, it means that the flow bonus will also start to fade. Players who come in later may have to pay attention to it. Walking the same path does not necessarily have a bonus.
In addition to teamwork and distribution, we also see some new product categories emerging, such as SouFeng said, a second-hand trading platform based on small programs to buy and sell products through virtual points. Dangerous Peaks has invested in the angel wheel and said that when discussing it internally, it will also make this a very interesting project. Where is the interest?
There is a good match between second-hand transactions and Wechat. There are often various second-hand items in the WeChat community. Sending and throwing away unnecessary items has become a new way of life, but it has always lacked a good carrier.
There is an essential difference between the second-hand trading platforms, such as enjoyment and leisure fish. The items in the spare fish are still positioned at more than 100 yuan, and the items on the shelf are cheaper and longer. 80% of the free fish items can't be sold within a year, and 70% of the items can be sold within three days, forming a strong enough differentiation.
Buying and selling does not require renminbi. Only points are required. The use threshold is low, which means very low traffic acquisition costs. And in the long run, there will be some network effect, which is the most sensitive thing for VC.
Previously on PCs and Mobiles, it was often the first to get traffic and do transactions. However, on Wechat, some trading platforms have reversed the order. For example, the game itself has become a highly efficient way to get traffic. It is the establishment of a traffic pool for price-sensitive users. Is the second-hand transaction flow pool, then the platform will guide these traffic to buy high customer price products, or to other transactions.
Therefore, in the final analysis, what is the secondary trading platform? Or a traffic pool with community attributes? Difficult to distinguish.
The above are all trading platforms. We can discuss three opportunities here:
First, WeChat is better able to divide people into groups. Is there an opportunity for a membership-based electricity supplier based on the crowd? There is a good thing for the first and second tier people. Many people who gather and fight for more are going to sink, but there are still vacancies in the more submerged towns of the five lines. For example, the V Xiaoke we exchanged hopes to hit this market. .
Second, vertical e-commerce and micro-branding opportunities. Because of the decrease in user acquisition costs, the probability of vertical e-commerce in WeChat has increased a lot. Many players use the distribution model. Only high-margin products are suitable for distribution. This can give enough margin to one or two agents, such as cosmetics, mothers, babies, and households, such as long tail non-standard products; One or two percent of the purchase, three or four percent off; there are labels, Maori space is also very impressive. When the channel is established, there may be micro-brand opportunities here.
Third, besides spelling out many such physical goods e-commerce providers, in the end, WeChat still has the opportunity of e-commerce platform for virtual goods. The previous knowledge payment is closer to CP and there is no opportunity for the platform of knowledge payment. Is there an opportunity to serve the e-commerce platform? From the different entry points, the markets of the United States and 58 cities were cut.
At the user end, we are seeing new traffic patterns brought about by the increased dimension of the address book. The biggest opportunity this brings is the trading platform. The forerunners have reaped the flow dividend, made many users, and also reaped the capital dividends. , melt a lot of money.
This bonus is a time window. From the aspect of user behavior, when we were pulled into the group by a WeChat e-commerce platform, we were willing to pay for it at a reasonable price; when we were pulled into the group by 20 such micro-business platforms, we were the first The reaction is to mute the group. At this time, the purchase conversion rate is bound to decrease, and the traffic acquisition cost is bound to increase.
Later development, these trading platforms still have some hard power. Either do heavy supply chains, control the quality and price of goods, or even do channel brands; or do heavy front-ends to form their own unique content and community, make a membership-based electricity supplier, stick to users, and better understand users.
Regardless of whether it is the former road or the latter road, it is phased to collect wool from WeChat traffic. Users will eventually settle on a carrier, and some will be deposited on their own apps, and some will continue to stay in the game. Wechat. Plenty is already conducting its own app, and it is said that half of the deals are coming from its own App.
In the end, does it really matter whether it is centralized or decentralized? Users are also concerned about the quality and price of goods, purchase efficiency and experience, how to engage in traffic in the previous period are tactics. For some players, decentralized e-commerce is a staged product that eventually becomes centralized.
Having said the user side, what new features do we see on the liquidation side?
In the past two years, we have witnessed a rapid increase in the revenue of these ten-point reading and mint reading programs. They also have high gross profit and net profit, compared with Baidu’s advertising business, Perfect World’s gaming business, and Jingdong’s electricity. The gross profit and net profit of the commercial business are both high.
We make a conjecture that whether the realization of knowledge is not a product, but a way of realizing it based on WeChat. In addition to advertising, e-commerce, games, and finance, WeChat generates the fifth realization method.
This kind of game of paying for reading and buying knowledge has been tried for a long time, but no one has grown up. What unique soil does WeChat have brought to fruition?
The circle of friends is the most crucial factor. The circle of friends is a container for the management of impressions. The friends we send out are always trying. When we send keep cards, we tell people that I am a very healthy person. At the same time, the circle of friends is also the place where anxiety is most likely to occur. When many people around you are reading mint, some people will feel that the people around them are making progress and anxiety. The payment of knowledge starts quickly in WeChat and is inseparable from the catalyst of friends.
Then the public number has accumulated a large number of fans. These fans have only paid attention to trusting authors. This is a natural flow of trust. When authors start selling knowledge products, the payment becomes natural. Of course, the formation of micro-payment habits is also a factor.
The summarization of the knowledge of realizing knowledge is a 4 * 2 octagonal grid.
There are four ways for the front-end to obtain traffic: getting traffic through personal IP, reading traffic through content at ten o'clock, getting traffic through tools, and reading traffic through fission by mint reading. There are two types of play in the backend change, either through proprietary content, gross profit above 80%, or through contracted authors' cooperation to make money, gross profit 50%.
In our view, what is the essence of the product of knowledge realization? It is a new type of publishing house. Where is the new? Content that is more in line with the user's tastes, previous books were tens of thousands of words, now turned into thousands of words, the reading threshold was reduced a lot; faster iterative cycles, a book was published a year ago, and now is released every few days new content.
Can the realization of knowledge become a way of realizing it for a long time? We are also observing. After all, learning is an anti-human thing. Can the user persist for a long time? Most of the knowledge realization is not for the purpose of the effect, but exists as a placebo. Can the user survive long after the trial has no effect?
If knowledge realization is established as a basic monetization method, there should be more than ten players reading and mint reading, and more players will emerge later. After everyone learns how to model, who better understands how to obtain users, and who has the ability to do content retention users. Players with unique traffic at the front end may become “back waves”. For example, we see that the New World has also started to do book reading.
At the same time, there will be different players extending to more vertical areas. For example, when a baby plays English, he or she grasps that parents want to give them English enlightenment, but they don’t know how to teach this demand. Chic’s drunk is to catch the girl’s desire to find Gao Fushuai. This is just needed. (smiling face)
Most of the existing knowledge-recovery projects are like CP. Is there a platform for this opportunity?
We talked about changes in front-end traffic and changes in back-end cash. The opportunity for the earliest wave of WeChat was brought by the public number, and the public number brought a new batch of content, replacing the old media.
Since 2017, WeChat has started to push small programs. In fact, the earliest benefit from the small program is the public number, the public number + small program electricity supplier has become a very good form of realization, many of the public number achieved a wave of cash after the realization of the small program; after the small program is the tool , community and game opportunities. Tooling is often faster, but in the tool-to-community, or tool-to-electricity business, it seems that we haven't seen players who have run out of them.
In addition to these, is there any other great opportunity? Can WeChat reshape some of the vertical industry scenes? Examples include education, finance, and corporate services.
Taking education as an example, there will be such a map. Horizontal is the most likely category for several categories. Over 80% of large projects are in the K12 and English categories. Vertical is the result of different technological and business model changes. Opportunity.
The chain model brings opportunities for New Oriental and a good future; live broadcasting brings opportunities such as VIPKid, coaching and one-on-one; O2O also brings a wave of opportunities, but most of the economic model of the unit does not work and there is a problem with user needs. Later, they all transformed or retired from the battlefield; AI brought a wave of fluency and job-box opportunities; on WeChat, are there any educational scenarios that can be remodeled? For example, Park nailed the scene using WeChat to remodel the home school.
The applet attracts too much attention. In fact, the applet and the opportunity in the WeChat cannot be equated. The applet is just a carrier. It is meaningless to discuss the applet itself. What should be discussed in the WeChat? Needs? What kind of scene? What kind of combination of small program + public number + group + circle of friends can have a chemical reaction with this scene?
In addition to the WeChat e-commerce and WeChat content that we have already seen, apart from the small games that everyone is investing in, will there be some opportunities in Sham Shui Po? Apart from physical e-commerce, is there a possibility for virtual goods e-commerce and life services e-commerce platforms? What are the opportunities for education and financial segmentation in WeChat? What opportunities will be created after the opening of corporate WeChat and personal WeChat? And, besides the WeChat's wool, how can we shake the sound and how can we pick wool?
Compared to the opportunity of e-commerce, which has already entered the mature stage, I believe these problems will have more impact on the market in the next six months to one year.
The author describes: Wu Bingjian, vice president of Evergreen Evergreen Investment, focusing on investment opportunities in the 2C trading platform, WeChat ecology, and education. It is an early investor in projects such as Job Box, Yunding Technology, Whole House Premium and Blue Finance. He previously served as a director of investment in Lenovo Star, and previously worked as a product manager in Baidu and a business analyst in Baidu Strategy.