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Lenovo's Normandy

via:博客园     time:2018/6/6 9:02:05     readed:71

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Wen / Zhou dispensers

"We beat the rumors, but the brand is in desperate need of reconstruction! ”

After the polling door incident, a frontline employee of Lenovo's Public Relations Department accepted our interview. It looks like she should not have a good rest for a few days. His face is yellow, his eyes are slightly bloodshot, and she is anxious. As a participant in the external communication project, she is responsible for inviting the media and opinion leaders to visit Lenovo and communicate with high-level officials to introduce the progress of the smart strategy transformation and avoid discrediting the company's news.

In the past month or so, the flooding attacks have caused Lenovo to fall into the most serious public relations crisis in history. The national brand image has been hit hard and it has been associated with the most critical moment. So that many of the company's management will work overtime until after 12 o'clock, cautiously worried about what a bigger accident occurred. Many girls will have a lot of telephone comfort at home, and they may not be able to bear the psychological pressure.

The outside world has mixed doubts and pessimism about Lenovo's emotions. On the one hand, many people do not know that Lenovo Holdings and Lenovo Group are two companies. It is speculation that Lenovo Group's business is blossoming everywhere; on the other hand, they are very sensitive to the decline of the mobile phone business. ,Think that in China's own side, "rarely there are Lenovo mobile phone users," Lenovo is finished, the PC business is seen as a yellow flower, little is known about Lenovo's enterprise-class business, other smart device growth and investment in the field of intelligence is nothing know. In short, all the associations that were once proud of their feelings were getting farther.

However, an interesting phenomenon has taken place. From May 11 to May 25 during the crisis, the stock price of Lenovo Group (00992) of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange not only did not fall, but also showed signs of a significant bottoming out. It rose sharply on May 25th. 6.91%. After Lenovo was removed from the Hang Seng Index constituent stocks in early May, it was seen on the stock market that there was a lot of money being eaten into the Lenovo shares.

The latest update of Lenovo Group's performance verified the “capital” objective calm: In the fourth quarter of 2017/2018, Lenovo’s turnover returned to double-digit growth of 11% after 10 quarters, and the profit before tax was US$37 million, a 143% increase compared to the previous fiscal year. The fiscal year's overall turnover increased by 5.4% to US$45.4 billion, the second-highest level in history (US$46.3 billion in the 2014/2015 fiscal year). This means that if Lenovo really has a turning point in performance and is sustainable, the current share price is greatly underestimated, and this crisis may be the last chance for big money to buy Lenovo.

In this article, the Weekly Manager consulting team will focus on the Lenovo Group, which is not very optimistic about the current situation. We do not follow the trend and do not want to be blindly optimistic. We will continue the analysis of Lenovo's research and the latest developments in the past half year, hoping to show a little emotion. Outside view. Lenovo old? Can you still eat rice? This is the core question in the text.

"The fighting nation" is still there?

Our first concern is whether —— Lenovo culture is deteriorating. If the culture deteriorates, all changes will be empty talk.

In this regard, benevolent people see it. In the interview, most of the old Lenovo people think that Lenovo is "able to fight, hard play and win". Although each company has the possibility of decline, but they think that Lenovo has the ability "cultural rejuvenation" rdquo; .

A legendary member who is now investing believes that Lenovo’s culture originated from suffering and was born of challenges. It has never been a son. He shared a small story: At the swearing-down meeting before Lenovo bought the IBM PC, Liu Chuanzhi, who just walked up to the podium, had actually burst into tears in front of more than 1,000 employees. Everyone waited silently for his reasons. President Liu expressed with deep emotion: He inadvertently saw that the old colleagues sitting in the first row of the venue were very tired. More than half of these entrepreneurs had very bad health and had a variety of chronic diseases, which made him feel very much inside. The embarrassment and self-blame. At that time, Lenovo was on the eve of a glorious career. It was also Yang Yuanqing and many Lenovo executives from the village to the township to the city and Dell and Hewlett-Packard were facing fierce battles. The generation of old Lenovo people are striving to innovate on the Chinese Academy of Sciences system, while facing the global market competition, but also to deal with various challenges and criticisms, most people overdraft family and body. Therefore, Lenovo's resigned employee organization Legend Society is one of the few large companies and the company fully interacts, remembering years of fighting.

Yang Yuanqing said that he has always been seen as promoting the Spartak phalanx to march forward. "Swordsman" has also been the Lenovo Group's strategy "radical". After the success of Lenovo's integration of IBM's personal computer business, many foreign Lenovo executives in the United States have advocated to cut off the non-profitable mobile phone business. Most people hope that Lenovo will steadily guard PCs and enterprise-class businesses to reduce the uncertainty of capital markets. This also caused the mobile phone business to be briefly sold to Hony Capital, a subsidiary of Legend Holdings, in 2008. However, Yang Li’s main mobile phone was incorporated into Lenovo Group to demonstrate greater dreams. Looking at this decision now does put him under tremendous pressure, but he is still willing to start a brand new adventure with All in AI today. Yang Yuanqing also likened this strategic transformation to turning the situation of World War II into a "Normandy landing". He wanted to rekindle the war!

Although both Liu Chuanzhi and Yang Yuanqing are externally regarded as Lenovo's stars and amnesties, they are not universal. In the survey and interview of ordinary employees, we can still feel that “combat culture” is still encouraging the organization to move forward. A bit of understanding of Lenovo:

For one thing, Lenovo is not dogmatic.

According to Qiao Jian, senior vice president of Lenovo Group, when the company went to McKinsey and other international consulting companies to do strategic consulting around 2000, many inside and outside the brain were almost always skeptical about the development of Lenovo Group. Many people suggested that the PC business be sold to IBM or Dell, because they do not see this business to beat the hope of the two giants. At that time, Lenovo resisted tremendous public pressure to complete the upgrade of the business model for consumer PC business, creatively pioneered T model (product retail transaction model) and R model (relationship model) dual model and Dell competition, obtained Great success. In 2004, Lenovo adopted elephants to acquire IBM's PC business. There are still many people in the industry who also believe that it is difficult to succeed. There is a high probability of being “deadly killed” and other irresponsible comments. This is exactly the same question as today’s smart transformation. She also talked about Lenovo's current mobile phone business culturally breaking the traditional "wear shoes" "great pot of rice" changes, the form of fee bonus incentive sales personnel. "The history of Lenovo's development has spent most of its time pushing forward with stress and seeing solutions to problems," she said;

Second, Lenovo does not drill camp.

Several details touched the author very much. The first one is about the story of dealing with customs at the beginning of the venture. At that time, Lenovo did not have any personal support in a customs office in the south, and did not understand how to communicate and survived. Later, it was not allowed to invest in a city. Lenovo's long-term investment principle is not to blend with officials. They feel a kind of inner feeling. Although the company grows in the system, but many environments are more difficult than private enterprises, so Lenovo's internationalization "According to the rules" & rdquo; very eager. "What we have not changed for more than 30 years is to respect competition. We haven't made any quick money," said one legendary member. The second story originated from the memory of a associate financial officer and the clerk of the tax bureau. At the time, the newly recruited clerk was somewhat in conflict with the request for CEO Yang Yuanqing to appear on a small event. As a result, his speech was not moderate enough, causing the entire company including Yang Yuanqing to apologize from the top to the bottom. Similar to many, a former senior executive of Lenovo also disclosed an unspeakable fact: In the past 30 years, there have been thousands of reports that have been falsely accused or attempted to kill Lenovo, and have been delivered to almost all state ministries and commissions and central leaders. After numerous rounds of investigations, Lenovo proved its innocence. Perhaps the "obituary" is the one that Liu Chuanzhi said in an open letter. "The enemy", from this point of view, "the enemy" is not the public, is the objective existence or is Political views are different or do not want to associate with a particular group of people. These are three early episodes that reflect Lenovo's not being a nobleman. There have been a lot of unsuspecting sorrows and vacillations. From another perspective, Lenovo's people do not have any camps or shortcuts under cruel circumstances. Space;

The third is that Lenovo people are not tired.

This point has been analyzed in Lenovo's Strategy Paradox. The most important point in the article is that criticizing Lenovo's globalization has laid a bureaucratization and suggests that Lenovo focus on using the high growth of the Chinese market to temper its teams. After that, Lenovo opened up information on many of our domestic and foreign market teams and supported in-depth research. This gave us a new understanding of Lenovo's global capabilities. At the same time, we also witnessed the whole process of Lenovo’s counterattack in China. In 2017, under the leadership of Liu Jun in China, major customer turnover historically exceeded 60% of the market share, and members and users operated and new retail sales. Customer-oriented new models and new channels such as the SMB platform and the SMB platform were quickly established. Although Lenovo's "China rebalancing" strategy took off in many places, it was very resolute.

The above three points are our observations from the human point of view on the "combat culture" heritage, but also lead to thinking about the long-term development potential of Lenovo: Some people think that Lenovo is a rusty iron sword, but the real association of "defense" Culture ” still have the same resistance to decay as the alloy, Lenovo people's "proud ” Vigorous, intuitive, and reluctant, neither pampered, small rich is safe, not aristocratic feelings. The essence is still the defeat of the soldiers, and the longing for the battlefield.

In the interview with Yang Yuanqing, he did not evade the issue.

First, he believes that since Lenovo acquired IBM's PC business, although it has achieved a phased success in its globalization strategy, it has indeed failed to strengthen the "engine" status of the Chinese market.

Secondly, Lenovo’s strategy was previously narrow on the hardware itself, but for “service innovation” and “software innovation” lack of attention, which led to the company’s strategy does not lock in the future-oriented ecosystem around world-class shipments. Competitiveness;

Third, in a number of periods, the investment in R&D of the Internet, mobile Internet, and basic software and hardware of smart phones is not firm enough to remain financially successful. Therefore, he advocated "Three Waves Strategy" to face innovation!

After returning to Lenovo, Liu Jun revived the old association's "no dogma, no drilling camp, and wary" battle culture, while presenting a 32-word "new entrepreneurial culture." An executive from China’s Lenovo Group shared several details: Liu Jun’s internal bombardment “had a bureaucratic style” on many internal conferences and stressed that “deep muddles with hands” and “demonstration” and “ldquo; To subvert the conventional "rdign" and "decision" and other "new entrepreneurial culture" points, eradicate self-righteous multinational inertia. He often holds office meetings at around 8 o'clock in the morning and meetings at 10 o'clock in the evening to discuss strategic deployments. Some of Lenovo's new employees began to discuss overtime meals at 8-10 in the evening. The entire Lenovo seems to be returning from the previous internationalization strategy to the efficiency, method, and rapid decision-making of Chinese companies.

"The fighting nation" begins to return to China, it does not seem to be a virtual slogan, has become a self-innovation appeal from the heart. "Individual approaches" began to replace the multinational corporation's red tape-based process control. "Back to China" resolutely resolves the determination of local competitiveness so that Chinese employees no longer struggle with how to write PPT in English. R & D personnel receive great attention. . From time to time, Yang Yuanqing and Liu Junshi will give senior executives exams on the new culture at the conference. “General Assembly of Liu is very real face-to-face so many people recite memorable words.” New entrepreneurial culture ’, not a single word! ”

There are many indications: Before the business rebounded, Lenovo's "spiritous spirit" has taken a new look!

“ Lenovo inflection point & rdquo; sustainable?

The inflection point of morale and the inflection point of performance obviously cannot explain all the problems.

Strategic rivals have changed, and companies such as Xiaomi, which has rapidly emerged from the smart phone business, are undergoing profound cross-border innovations. The business model has changed, and Tencent and Ali, who aggressively cut into enterprise cloud services using the Internet model, are establishing agility. Efficient enterprise-level service barriers; organizational needs have changed, and whether or not Lenovo can win the future high-tech competition is more dependent on whether the organization can be strong and integrate talented fighter. The most fundamental issue facing Yang Yuanqing is not to change public opinion, but how to let Lenovo lead the next growth cycle under the leadership of smart strategy.

“As a super giant with an annual revenue of RMB 300 billion, Lenovo’s strategic rivals are global giants, and they conduct cross-cultural business across the globe. They are also listed companies and are subject to short-term fluctuations in their performance. Lenovo turned around. It's not easy. Liu Jun's views on the difficulty of Lenovo's transformation are very pertinent.

But at the same time that most Lenovo executives are cautious, Zhou Chang's team found that Lenovo’s business is quietly changing. “The Lenovo Turning Point” is turning from expectation to evidence. There are several remarkable facts and our analysis. Judgment:

First, the equipment business bottomed out.

Even if the equipment business includes mobile phones, Lenovo Group has no room to fall down, but there is a lot of upside. Taking a PC as an example, for every additional point of penetration, it will bring in $330 million in turnover and $130 million in profits. Today, Lenovo's penetration rate is only 2.8%, while HP has 4.8%, and DELL is as high as 7.3%. The business PC cloud services and other services of the existing equipment still have long-term market potential. From a dialectical perspective, Lenovo’s PC business does not have the “sunset” that some radical analysts have criticized. Instead, it is likely to usher in the “redundancy is the king” of the dividend period, just like the US, Gree and other white goods. Criticized without technical content, Lenovo, as the king of PCs, still has a stable profit return on the main position. “Black & White” may also allow Lenovo to replicate the growth of Bomer and Gree’s stock prices. .

In addition, in the enterprise market with higher profit margins, Lenovo Group PC overtook HP to return to the top spot in the world and achieved a double-digit global championship in PC sales and sales in the enterprise market. This objectively has a huge business opportunity of detonating cloud services and enterprise-class data center services. Lenovo, PaaS, and SaaS will add a new strategic engine from the perspective of the industry. This is also a brand new "device + cloud". Business opportunity. According to the data, Lenovo’s total revenue from the mobile business in the latest fiscal year reached US$7.2 billion, and sales growth in North America reached 57%. The turnover of all new types of equipment has increased by about 50% year-on-year. There should be sufficient reason to believe that the equipment business is bottoming out and in the shift stage;

Second, "cloud services" and "business services" capacity is greatly underestimated.

Although Lenovo did not appear to be cutting-edge under the momentum of cloud services from Tencent and Ali, Lenovo Group’s long-term company-owned service genes demonstrated “cloud service capabilities” in 2017. It is still prominent, including data centers. The enterprise-class services also include PC application services for the smart IoT platform. From the accumulation of technology, Lenovo’s supercomputer capacity is the second largest in the world. In application, six of the world's largest data centers and six of them use Lenovo's solutions.

In the university cooperation at the forefront of R&D, Lenovo has obtained comprehensive applications from universities such as Peking University, Oxford University, University of London, University of Chicago, and North Carolina State University. "In terms of institutional and enterprise services, we are not afraid of any competition. The fighting has just begun!" "Tong Fuyu, president of Lenovo's data center business group in China, said that he also believes that Lenovo's B2B and B2C businesses have unlimited space for collaboration. This can even provide new opportunities for the re-emergence of mobile services from a business perspective. It should be said that this business is Lenovo's anti-risk ability, and the long-term sustainable growth of the stabilizer;

Third, “Smart Ecology” clearly points to the upgrading of consumer-grade businesses.

Lenovo is, after all, a company that has been making B2C consumer electronics products for more than 30 years and is extremely sensitive to smart device trends. Lenovo's "Smart Ecology" layout began to accelerate in 2018, summed up to include "New Devices", "New Platform", "New Retail" three levels.

"New equipment", you can already see the release of a series of smart devices, including AR helmets, VR headsets, smart meetings, as well as consumer electronics products promoted with partners; "New Platforms" More Reflected in the use of Smart IoT platform to provide users with rich video, audio, games and other content services, the daily live users reached 3.4 million, "New Retail" is Lenovo learns from the exploration of new corporate retail terminals.

Among them, Mirage AR headset has already become the global sales champion. Lenovo's product manager is confident that the AR helmet is the next PC-level "big box" and he cares more about the possible breakthrough of Lenovo in the field of smart devices. The outside world widely criticized "no core technology", "" to the Wintel Alliance to do coolies "". This is the shame of his heart.

In other words, Lenovo has not only greatly upgraded its consumer-grade business, but its own adjustments and evolution have created a new window of strategic opportunities surrounding "Smart Cloud Services." In Yang Yuanqing's words: "The first wave is to upgrade the Lenovo's transformation into Lenovo's past, the second wave is to build infrastructure to strengthen its core competitiveness, and the third wave is to reshape the new competitiveness in the industry solution." This new strategic thinking has many similarities with Microsoft's transformation. The reason why Microsoft can rise up again and Microsoft's Azure cloud performance rebounds in the past has pushed the market value to a record 740 billion U.S. dollars in the past 4 years, not to 7.17 billion U.S. dollars in 2013. The dollar’s ​​acquisition of Nokia’s mobile phone division has been revitalized. Instead, it has become a world’s largest commercial cloud service company in addition to Amazon because of its competitiveness in the area of ​​commercial cloud services.

Lenovo is intentionally or unintentionally embarked on the road to Microsoft's renaissance. "All in AI" is essentially sworn by a systemic change in strategic thinking and direction. Although the "fighting ethnic" personality does not like to admit defeat in the mobile phone business, but the real situation is that the valuation model of Lenovo Group has changed, Lenovo's latest financial report on May 24 shows: Lenovo Group It has already moved from a well-known consumer electronics company to a new strategic direction for smart solution providers. That is to say, the outside world is behind Lenovo's "equipment-type" company and it is transforming into a service-oriented technology company.

On the whole, "Normandy landing" is a back-to-back battle for intelligent innovation. This battle is arduous and systematic and requires miracles. During the survey, we discovered that there are many secret weapons in the “landing war”: Lenovo Venture Capital has invested in a cumulative total of 85 companies and completed the independent spin-off of eight innovative businesses. Accurately identify cutting-edge investment companies in the areas of artificial intelligence, face recognition, gait recognition, smart security, and smart medical, with 1.5 billion accurate recognition of cutting-edge technology companies such as Face++, Cambrian, China-Austria Technology, Droplet Technology, and Vision Medical. The U.S. dollar innovation fund is carrying out special operations for the "new Lenovo" strategic remodeling.

Perhaps all the pessimism of the outside world has already reflected the low stock price. Looking ahead, more positive factors are accumulating, and the dawn of Lenovo has already emerged. At this moment, it is Lenovo's worst time. In this regard, Yang Yuanqing's statement at the Legend Swearing Conference of the Diamond Court in 2018 was of great significance: Nadal, who ended the season prematurely due to injury in 2016, was once degraded by many people, but in 2017 he returned to the top.

In his view: the landing of the Normandy has already begun, "The fighting nation" is still very good.

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