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Millet Baidu triggers CDR Carnival: can retail investors really share the wealth feast?

via:博客园     time:2018/6/12 14:26:15     readed:351


Zhang Fan, author of the Tencent "deep network"

On the morning of June 11th, the securities and Futures Commission disclosed the millet CDR prospectus. In the crowded subway car, Li Ke's cell phone popped several push, and at the same time, many of his stock investment groups suddenly became active. In the past, it was a scene after the opening of the market.

A quarter of an hour after the opening of the afternoon, the China Securities Journal exposed Baidu's choice of Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities as the sponsor of issuing CDR. At this time, outside the East Fifth Ring outside an industrial bank business department, the loan manager Zhu Mingming is busy replying to WeChat. Throughout the morning, customers, relatives and classmates kept asking about the CDR fund's purchase. She had to prevaricate her business.

After the market, 6 strategic distribution funds (LOL), such as Yi Fang Da and China Merchants Fund (LOL), have exploded a circle of friends, including three party channels such as WeChat finance. Zhu Mingming's colleagues in the sales department responsible for CDR fund sales also made friends circle: one head down, one head up, the day of the customer manager passed.

The month of sunset, the CDR fund's Carnival discussion has just started, and the pricing, circulation rules and the CDR enterprise attributes and other unknowns have become a carnival.

According to previous reports, the list of the first batch of enterprises returning to A shares also includes Alibaba, Tencent, Jingdong, Ctrip, micro-blog, NetEase and Shun Yu optics. The train that has pulled millet and Baidu will become another opportunity for the ordinary people to miss the bitcoin and turn the fortune back.

Pricing rules undetermined: price earnings ratio or investment expectation

The SFC has two restrictions on the issue of new shares of A shares, that is, the static P / E ratio does not exceed 23 times, and does not exceed the industry average price earnings ratio. Thanks to this, the new stock market has become an almost safe way to invest. The surplus price earnings ratio released by the post market market is expected to substantially boost the stock price.

Although the CDR fund does not equate with the IPO, investors' investment plans are common. However, such a calculation has not yet been accepted by the SFC.

According to the results, 3 billion 945 million yuan ($616 million) in 2017 was estimated for non net profit, and millet is currently valued at about $70 billion. This value also fits the data given by a number of brokerage firms. With a simple calculation of US $70 billion /6.16 billion, the price earnings ratio of millet has reached 113 times.

At present, the distribution of PE in the three A shares of the three major new Unicorn enterprises of Ming and Kang, the era of Ningde and the industrial rich union are 22.99, 22.99 and 17.09 respectively, and the corresponding industry PE is 65.32, 44.05 and 35.65. Among them, the industry is mainly made of computers, communications and electronic equipment, and is the closest to millet.

If CDR price is still followed by 23 times price earnings ratio, there will be considerable room for growth in the future. According to the "deep network", previously the SFC's Distribution Department said in a communication meeting that the future will be allowed to reach a certain scale for three years without profit, but the future has a future. This is mainly aimed at the requirements of three years of continuous profit for A shares for three years.

In fact, there is no point in discussing the price-earnings ratio at a loss, which means that the SFC's regulation of the price-earnings ratio is

At present, the SFC level has not clearly defined this, and the definition of CDR's future earnings is still unknown. However, it is certain that beyond the definition limit of 23 times price earnings ratio, the expectation space for investors will shrink in the future.

In fact, the CDR fund will include more enterprises such as millet and Baidu in the future. More unicorns will have risks and expectations. Prior to this, the good doctor Hong Kong Stock Exchange broke the market. In addition, Razer, Wen, Mei and Zhong An also rushed back, and the US map even fell to the issue price.

There is also a bubble in the US listed companies. On the 6 day, the standard & Poor's 500 index (PE) was 32.95 times the price earnings ratio, reaching a historical peak, second only to 45 times in 2000.

"Deep web" was informed that, at the same communication conference, the SFC's issuing department said that for new innovative enterprises, valuation methods were not used. This means that there will be elastic space for future pricing schemes, that is, uncertainty. This also increases the risk of CDR fund investment.

The excitement behind strategic distribution

According to the CDR prospectus of millet, this collection will be divided into three parts: 30% for the research and development of self-help products, 30% for the ecological chain construction of IOT and living consumer products, and 40% for global business development.

It is worth noting that the company's real controller has given the circulation restrictions and voluntary locking of shares, that is, three years after the issuance and listing, and does not voluntarily give up the position of the company's real controller.

Li Ke, who is now struggling, is hesitant about this. In fact, the CDR fund also has a similar requirement that the first three years after the entry into force of the contract is a closed operation period.

In fact, the

Among them, the lock-in, as the controlling shareholder, the actual controller (including the affiliated party), is regular for the town within 36 months from the date of the listing, which is applicable to the main board, the small and medium board, and the gem. This commitment in CDR has also been followed by the law, which can be traced to the Shanghai Stock Exchange listing rule (2014), 5.1.5.

The three year closed operation period of the CDR fund has nothing to do with this. What is more clear is that closed operation is not in conflict with the flow.

After 6 months of the purchase, investors can trade the share of the over-the-counter funds held in their hands, only to transact the trans - system transfer service into the field. Of course, like general fund products, CDR fund also has a discount and premium fluctuation in this process. If unicorns perform poorly, there is a possibility of a discount risk.

A broker said to deep web that the fund redemption for three years and the stock lock period is usually the two concept. The fund can be redeemed to the fund manager in the closed period, and the stock lock is simply locked. The former has limitations that can not be exited, while the latter emphasizes that they can not be transferred.

For those who lack the background of economic knowledge, Li Ke's puzzle is the confusion of stock thinking. In fact, the CDR fund is a share of the stock. It is neither a new stock nor a fixed increase. Under the temptation of the purchase fee of as low as 0.6%, the risk of the fund itself has been covered up by full screen strategic placement advertisements.

Zhu Mingming's experience tells her that people with money are

At present, 6 funds are from the south, Huaxia, Yi Fangda, Castell, Huitian rich, investment, the number of fund managers proposed to be more than 11. According to wind statistics,

From the time of purchase, the first quarter individual investor is the national social security fund, the basic endowment insurance fund, the enterprise annuity fund and the occupational pension in June 19th, in from June 11th to 15th.

For individual investors, if the purchase is determined to be the optimal stage, even if half a year, the discount rate is still higher than the subscription price. Last November, the Yinhua Ming selection fund was listed in the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The net value was 1.0991 yuan. After that, the liquidity discount took place, but the closing still remained at 1.036 yuan, although the discount rate was 5.74% compared with the net value, but the subscription price of 1 yuan rose by 3.6%.

In fact, in terms of the current policy tilt and the overall management level of Unicorn enterprises, the market is more optimistic about the CDR fund, and the possibility of a premium in the two level market will be greater in the future.

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