Original title: Market value evaporated 1.6 trillion! Game stocks to dark moments? Some analysts say that oversold brings buying opportunities
According to the number of game version approvals issued by the State Administration of Radio and Television in January and March 2018, 716 were issued in January this year, 484 in February, and 727 in March. At present, there are more than 3,000 games waiting in line for approval, including Tencent's "Jesus Survival" and so on.
The regulatory winds have been blown, and game stocks are experiencing a baptism of a stock price crash.
The strongest regulation is coming, the dark moments of game stocks
If a game company wants to launch a new game, it must obtain the game version number that the National Radio and Television Administration has filed. At present, the online path of online games in the Chinese market is generally like this: filing - getting the record number - the version of the submission for review - audit pass - the board of directors - get the version number.
But now, the approval of the State Administration of Radio and Television has been suspended for more than four months. The recovery time is unknown. We have seen that the State Administration of Radio and Television has approved the game as follows:
In addition to the version number, the regulatory winds continue to be strong. On the evening of August 30, the Ministry of Education and other 8 departments issued a notice on the implementation plan for the comprehensive prevention and control of children and adolescents' myopia (hereinafter referred to as “the program”), indicating that the National Press and Publication Administration will implement a total amount of regulation on online games. Control the number of new online games online operations, explore the age-appropriate reminder system in line with national conditions, and take measures to limit the use time of minors.
According to Nandu, in addition to the implementation of the total regulation of online games, the future regulation of the game industry also includes the game version quota system and the game industry special tax, the latter is similar to the tobacco tax, each game will be levied a 35% tax And the chess game will be regulated first.
This is really a heavy hammer for game companies. At present, the games released by Tencent platform account for more than half of the entire game industry. Whether it is Tencent's own R&D or Tencent's promotion, in short, it is inseparable from the carrier of Tencent. The industry is rumored to be saying: Leaving Tencent. Don't think about selling the game.
According to the data, among all game distribution companies, Tencent has almost occupied the top20 pay list with absolute overwhelming advantage. In the 2014~2018 Q1 pay list, Tencent’s games accounted for 50%, and the second NetEase accounted for 18%. Game companies account for a single digit. Tencent and NetEase have occupied an unassailable “hegemony status” in the game market. In recent years, although iQiyi and other companies have also greatly strengthened the game development efforts, they still have gaps with the first echelon of Tencent and NetEase. .
According to the "China's Game Industry Report for January-June 2018" jointly released by the Game Working Committee and Gamma Data, the overall revenue of the domestic game market in the first half of this year was 105 billion yuan. According to Tencent and NetEase's earnings report, the total revenue of the game in the first half of the year was as high as 72.9 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 70% of the game market revenue. The remaining hundreds of game companies divided the remaining 30% market share.
However, if the version number is not available, the game will not be able to go online. If the game cannot be launched, it will directly affect the operating performance of the game company. Once the profit growth is not up to expectations, the stock price will fall.
Game company stock price plummeted
The market's response rate is the fastest, and most of the game stocks have already fallen since the beginning of the year. Tencent, once sexy and awkward, is not a stock, but a value investment belief. It is the legend of Hong Kong stocks: In 2017, Tencent rose 115.25%. However, even if the elephant dances, it still has gravity.
According to Wind data, Tencent's share price has fallen by 31.52% since mid-March, and the market value has evaporated by 1.4 trillion Hong Kong dollars. As of today's close, the share price closed at HK$316.8, up 0.7%, with a total market capitalization of HK$3 trillion.
Similarly, let's take a look at Netease. The stock price has fallen by 39% since mid-March 2018, and the market value has evaporated by 17.7 billion US dollars (equivalent to RMB 120 billion).
Times Statistics found that since March 15 this year, the overall performance of Hong Kong stocks has declined to varying degrees. Among them, the game company Lianzhong shares have fallen more than 65%, Jinshan Software has fallen more than 53%, Shenzhou figures have fallen more than 48%, and the market value has evaporated. HK$1.5 trillion (about RMB 1.3 trillion).
Let's take a look at the situation of A-share game companies. According to statistics from Times Times, there are 35 companies that mainly play games in A-share business. Among them, the 35 game companies have not seen any increase since March 15th. For the Yingying network, the decline reached 63.41%, the decline of Tianshen Entertainment was 61.98%, and the market value accumulated a total of 192.4 billion yuan.
If Netease, a game company listed on the US stock market, is added, the total market value of game stocks has evaporated by more than 1.6 trillion yuan since mid-March.
Some analysts suggest over-matching Hong Kong game stocks
Wang Xu, the founder of gamma data, said that the domestic game companies will accelerate the pace of going to sea. With the saturation of the domestic game market and the escalation of competition, the overseas market will naturally become an important direction for the next step of development.
Internet observer Luo Chao analyzes that 2018 will be the watershed of the Chinese game industry: on the one hand, the game industry has entered a strict regulatory era, game companies must have an insight into the purpose of regulation, compliance through technology, management, operations, etc.; On the other hand, game companies have to produce more quality games, which means that the era of profitable games industry may end.
For game stocks, brokers have different opinions. CITIC Jiantou analyst Wu Chao believes that the leading game's stock-earnings ratio has been adjusted to 15~20 times, which has the value of medium and long-term layout. It is recommended to pay attention to the new game in the second half. The company's recommended targets are Perfect World, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment, and Kunlun Wanwei.
Guoxin Securities (Hong Kong) pointed out in the research report that the impact of the current total regulation on the leading mobile game companies is gradually weakening, and the quality games are expected to lengthen the life cycle. The market concentration will be beneficial to the industry leader. Therefore, it is not pessimistic about the game industry, but it is expected that the eventual oversold actually brings a buying opportunity. Since the release of the version number in March, the Hong Kong stocks have retraced sharply and it is recommended to overweight.
Ping An Securities believes that from the perspective of revenue, most of the game companies' net profit declined significantly in 2017, which is related to the slowdown in the growth of domestic game users. As the demographic dividend gradually subsides and the competition for purchases intensifies, the cost of user acquisition will gradually increase, and it will face greater profit pressure in the future.