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Tencent's 2B anxiety

via:博客园     time:2018/9/26 14:03:52     readed:1731

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Author Guo Yidao

Editing Qin Jian

Tencent is brewing to make the Tencent cloud business under the SNG social network business group a new business group (BG), juxtaposed with seven business groups such as the WeChat business group. Behind this big move, Tencent will further strengthen its position in the 2B business.

In 2018, there was a clear trend in the Chinese Internet. The demographic dividend was really going to be eaten up. Even the landlord’s family had no surplus. Even Internet giants like Tencent and Jingdong began to experience user growth or business growth. The situation of rapid decline. That is to say, the 2C road has become more and more difficult to go. The front is not far from the ceiling. The only way to break the ceiling is to go out to sea and copy the Chinese model abroad.

For Tencent, it tried to open overseas markets through WeChat, but since Facebook entered these overseas countries earlier, WeChat missed the time window. Later, Tencent had the opportunity to acquire WhatsApp, and because Ma Huateng couldn't help seeing the WhatsApp founder led to the bankruptcy, the company was eventually acquired by Facebook. To this day, Tencent relies mainly on investment layout overseas, and rarely does business on its own.

If 2C is in trouble, then 2B is bound to become the next important growth point.

one

In 2011, at the end of the 3Q war, Baidu surpassed Tencent with a market value of US$46 billion.

Zhou Hongyi used the means of “touching porcelain” to make 360 ​​famous, leaving Tencent, which is deeply immersed in public opinion, whatever it is considered to be wrong. Wu Xiaobo wrote in "Tencent Biography": "Ma Huateng was energetic and even began to doubt his own < product belief & rsquo;. ”

This heavy punch has played an open Tencent.

At a general meeting, Ma Huateng organized 16 executives to discuss a question: “What is Tencent's openness? “Everyone on the scene wrote down what they considered to be Tencent's core competencies on paper, and got a total of 21 answers. At the end of the meeting, 17 people set two core competencies: one called capital and one called traffic.

In the following six months, it became the preparatory period for strategic transformation, and ten experts discussed and jointly worked for Tencent to “diagnose”. In the end, both traffic and capital are open at the same time. Tencent decided to “deliver half of its life to partners”, “for pure financial investment, we will not do it. To do, just do the source & rdquo;.

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In May of this year, Goldman Sachs James Mitchell aired Tencent as CSO (Chief Strategy Officer). This move is similar to the introduction of Liu Chiping in 2005, but James is more crazy than Liu Chiping. The search for Sogou, Public Comment, and Jingdong is hundreds of millions of dollars. “Don't cut off duplicates, unprofitable, bad prospects, and not good at them, and hand them over to the vertical giants of strategic investment. ”

The birth of WeChat allowed Tencent to get the mobile Internet "tickets", QQ and WeChat helped Tencent establish an account system, and eventually grew into a core asset in the C-end. Through the realization of user resources, games and social networks have become Tencent's main performance growth points. On the other hand, with the mobile phone Taobao also got "tickets" Alibaba continued to dig deep into the B-end. Baidu, which did not get the tickets, has gradually begun to break away from the BAT pattern despite gaining revenue through the B-end.

At the beginning of 2018, Tencent's market value exceeded 500 billion US dollars, surpassing Facebook in one fell swoop. In China, the only Internet company that can compete with Tencent in the same volume is Ali.

However, in the next nine months, Tencent, which is triumphant, began to fall into a weak state: due to the “funny chicken” policy limitation, Tencent’s net profit growth slowed down and game revenue fell for the first time. The most obvious response comes from the stock price. Since January this year, Tencent's share price has fallen from a peak of HK$475.6/share to a low of HK$305.2/share, and the market value has evaporated by more than US$150 billion. In addition to the difficulties encountered by the game, Tencent 2C base camp also suffered a cross-border blow from short video, the use of WeChat friends circle was greatly shortened, Tencent had to add micro-vision to fight back.

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At the end of 2017, Ma Huateng admits at the annual staff meeting: “Now Tencent needs more To B capabilities. & rdquo; Liu Chiping also added: "Many people say that we only have the genes of To C, there is no To B gene, I do not believe this. ”

A little further: in the past two years, whether it is Ma Huateng's products or activities attended, almost all related to 2B business. In foreign countries, the logic of Amazon, Google, and Facebook is to use the 2C foundation to erode the B-end market. After the guerrilla warfare is over, it is necessary to fight the battlefield. Tencent is trying to use the payment and cloud computing to compete for the 2B market. But with the rise of Ant Financial and Alibaba Cloud, Ali has built a solid barrier in 2B.

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At this time, Tencent internally brewed a third structural adjustment in an attempt to adapt to the development of the B-side business.

Ali’s Cai Chongxin once commented on Tencent: In addition to the low cost of obtaining customers, others are not afraid.

In recent years, the cost of Internet traffic has been increasing, and the traffic dividends in first- and second-tier cities have been basically exhausted. The sinking market represented by the 3rd and 4th lines has become the new blue ocean of the current incremental dividend, and it has long been the battlefield of the headlines.

In June 2018, it was praised by the industry as "<3Q Wars One Level" "Tanteng Wars", officially opened. After the mutual escalation of the squad, "Unfair competition", Tencent and today's headlines all claimed to have encountered "black public relations" and reported the case.

During this period, Wang Shuai, chairman of the Ali Market Public Relations Committee, publicly announced on Weibo that “water release”: “This lawsuit is to make people shut up. According to the law is the law of WeChat. ”

20-year-old Tencent war 6-year-old headlines today, the volume is not at the same level, but today's headline, vibrato, volcano video, watermelon video and other product matrix has been able to coincide with Tencent's WeChat, QQ daily users.

Everyday Express is Tencent's first information flow product that is mainly supported by the name. From the point of view of the name, it is necessary to mark the headlines today, but today it still fails to threaten the status of the headlines. According to research institute data, Tencent News APP is more than headline and created 2.4 billion annual advertising revenue, but it is only equivalent to two months of vibrating.

In the article "Youth headlines against middle-aged Tencent", "Finance" is specifically for "The Teng Teng Battle" P picture: a sword separated, the left half is Ma Huateng, the right half is Zhang Yiming, Yi Yi It’s really like watching it. According to media reports, the public relations team such as Li Liang, who was recruited by the headline, was the main public relations force of the 3Q War Digital Corporation.

Micro-vision has already entered the game very early, but now it seems that it has caught up early in the morning. As early as the rise of 4G in 2013, Tencent launched a short 8-second video app “Micro-vision”, which was once up to 45 million. However, Xing Hongyu, who was the early head of Gao Ziguang or the follow-up, could not figure out the business model of this “8 second product” business. In the early days, Grandy (Gao Ziguang) always said that he would recreate a Vine, but when asked about the specific ideas, the answer is only “foreign, we must also have”.

The same tragedy was Tencent Weibo, and later it became a project that could be cut and cut. Zhang Xiaolong made it clear that he could not see the product form of Weibo, and Ma Huateng made a judgment at the end of 2011. “Because of WeChat, the war on Weibo is over. ”

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Chen Lin, the product manager of today's headlines, commented that cutting Tencent Weibo and microvision is two big mistakes made by Tencent.

In April 2017, Huaxing Capital Baofan talked to Zhang Yiming and Wang Xing. When asked about why the TMD in the second half of the Internet could get out of the BAT shadow, Wang Xing quoted General MacArthur's farewell speech at the West Point Military Academy: "Only the dead can see the end of the war, and the Chinese Internet is also." "Zhang Yiming said, "This is because the companies were competing around some old battlefields or transitional stations, or they were too obsessed with the old battlefield or old things, and did not look forward." ”

Tencent, which has always used investment to defend itself, is the one who is obsessed with the old battlefield: “You can invest, but don’t hold it”. The difference is that from the defense of Ali to the anti-headline, "toe war" is dead, but far from over.

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C-end consumption growth slowed down, and B-side growth just started. Competing for the market in 2B business means that Tencent can continue to do business in incremental markets.

At 2 pm on January 11, 2017, at the entrance of Kaide Plaza in Wuhan, “Mei Tuan” and “Hungry”, the food delivery personnel broke out collectively; at 4 pm on February 13th, Zhangpu County, Zhangzhou The two sides held a large number of flagpoles to open the roadside; on February 20th, a group of weapons broke out at a US Mission in Tangshan, Hebei. This is the last "in the ugly state" of the incremental market in the take-away industry. If you step into the stock market, there will be no more dancing flags.

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In the incremental market, it is the best interest to get the most out of the user. After entering the stock market, enterprises should try to increase the contribution value of individual users after the growth rate slows down. The payment and gaming business has a mature and fixed business model in Tencent. It is not difficult to continue to maintain rapid profit growth without the user's difficulty in growing. The 2B business, in Tencent, means the next incremental market, and even a larger source of profit growth.

The right focus will eventually fall into the three blocks of finance, cloud computing and AI. In recent years, the increasingly low-key and mysterious Ma Huateng has basically been used for these business platforms in public. The profit of these businesses, which has been classified in Tencent's financial report so far, is also attributed to "Other".

Zhang Zhidong, the designer of the last organizational change in Tencent, recently stated that Tencent’s organizational changes are lagging behind. Tencent's current organizational structure was formed after the company's second organizational change in 2011 and 2012, with the aim of moving toward mobility. Seven years later, Tencent’s market value has risen tenfold, surpassing Facebook by $500 billion in early 2018.

The existing organizational structure has enabled Tencent to form an internal competition and product culture. The internal environment is open and there are many teams, but there is no summary of information throughout the organization. Zhang Zhidong regretted that he could not help Tencent's construction in China. Ali implemented the strategy of China and Taiwan in 2015. All of Ali's data is integrated internally and provides data products for service providers. Tencent's customer data is scattered in various departments, and there is no openness. The lack of data mastery also leads to Tencent's disadvantages at the algorithm level.

In the ability to compete for the 2B market, Tencent's inferiority does have the influence of the “gene” factor.

Alibaba's riverside park has stood up with a statue of a cow, which symbolizes the “Chinese supplier”, the early positioning of member services in Alibaba —— cash cows. The salesmen who are responsible for selling the "supply" are most afraid of being bitten by the factory dog. “Middle confession” is the task of the Iron Army: go down to the county, township, and persuade the business owners who have never seen the Internet before, and believe that there is a kind of “network” in the world that can help them not have to accompany their customers. Make a business. The premise is to buy an Ali's "Medium" members, the cheapest is 18,000. The main dog of the enterprise is the normal state. The first person to take the order is the famous Jiawei.

This Alibaba pioneer is especially good at cultivating sales and pushing the team, so he has gone out of the COO and CEO of the Internet circle. According to the 36-year-old news, Tencent Cloud has recently started to sell in all parts of the country, ranging from 2 to 10 in each place. In the process of business development, it is precisely the sales of Ali, which has the “China Supply” and the Iron Army Gene.

Tencent, a part of the market competition, is in a natural disadvantage, but this is not the most pressing difficulty. Ultimately, the competitiveness of cloud platforms and AI businesses depends on their own technical strength and requires a concentration of input. Tencent, which is even later, and Tencent, which has dispersed power, the first step to improving competitiveness is to build its own team.

Another interesting phenomenon in 2018 is that the 2B business began to re-certify itself. The first is Lenovo, which has been squandered by the outside world for many years.

At the beginning of May, Lenovo Group was kicked out of the Hang Seng Index stocks because of its low share price. Soon after, the "voting gate" incident was raging. In the end, Lenovo

Relying on a strong financial report saved the image. Although the mobile phone-based mobile business still suffered a large loss, Lenovo's total revenue hit the second highest in history. One of the most important factors comes from PCs, and more than half of Lenovo's PCs come from the 2B enterprise market.

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However, for Baidu, which relies mainly on enterprises rather than users to contribute revenue, it has not been re-certified by 2B business, but it has been criticized for not being able to give up some income from the B-end. Shortly before the writer Liu Liu, Li Yanhong called out Baidu's search engine, "The Liar Ad" and "The auction ranking" was re-raised by the old things. As usual, the apology, as usual, is not rooted in chaos, and is highly dependent on ranking gains. Determined Baidu's trade-offs.

Baidu also thought about finding other sources of profit. It has been transformed into a C-end, and the comprehensive acquisition of glutinous rice has failed. The big-selling All In AI has had little effect for the time being; on the contrary, the search business revenue of “unknown” is still its The core pillar, and the total revenue and operating profit margins have maintained good growth.

Knowing that the bidding ranking has original sin, but in order to survive, Baidu can't break its own way. For Baidu, most of the revenue comes from the B-side, and the bidding advertisement is its moat.

2B Business and customer are more sticky. Once the trading relationship is established, the transaction will continue, and the income will be more stable than 2C. Compared with 2C, 2B business barriers are higher, and with the nature of the moat, how can Tencent not be embarrassed?

In the 2C business, user stickiness is also the most important ace of Tencent. In the early years, there was a paragraph about Tencent and Sina:

Sina: We started early. Tencent: I have 600 million users.

Sina: We have many stars. Tencent: I have 600 million users.

Sina: We are of high quality. Tencent: I have 600 million users.

Sina: We lead the paradox. Tencent: I have 600 million users.

Sina: ……

From June 2017 to June 2018, the headline-based APP usage time increased by 6.2% of the user's total Internet time, and Tencent's department decreased by 6.6%. Tencent has never suffered such a big loss before today's headlines. In order to regain the user's stickiness, Tencent is also a sniper headline, but also a small program ecology, but also used big data means.

In fact, a major feature of the 2B business is long-term stability and high viscosity. Once signed, customers usually continue to trade and their income is stable.

Another big advantage of the 2B business is its direct revenue, as the customer facing is paid. Baidu, which broke out in the battle with Putian in 2015, was accused of 999 yuan for a single click. The Baidu annual report showed that the company's total revenue for the year was 66.3 billion, of which network marketing accounted for 64 billion.

In addition to investment income, Tencent's main profit model today is to precipitate users, turn them into traffic, and make profits through games, user fees, and advertising. The process of realizing the flow of money and letting users pay for it can be said to be a long twist. In contrast, the revenue of the 2B business appears to be more direct, saving the steps of conversion.

Wu

There was a media report that Ma Huateng said at the internal meeting "to get rid of the nails". However, at least until today, the company WeChat has not been able to achieve the results he longed for. Nail CEO CEO Chen Hang’s flower name is no move, and there is no trick in playing. Nail Marketing Director Ke Lin said such a detail: No move had to meet the head of a company at two in the morning, and finally came out of the company two hours later, the cooperation has been reached.

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No move was once a veteran of Alibaba, "18 arhats" when the intern. “It may be the vanity of going abroad.” After graduation, he accepted an invitation from a Japanese company and spent 11 years in Japan. After returning to Ali, I first made a scouring failure, and led the traffic that was "killed" and finally made a nail. According to data from Quest mobile, as of the end of last year, China's smart mobile office products ranked first in the number of active users, and exceeded the total number of second to tenth active users.

However, the success of the nail may also encourage Tencent, which can prove that the company's genes may be overcome. The nailing team was originally doing 2C business. Just like the president of Tencent, Liu Chiping said, “Look at the successful species in evolution, not the kind of genes that have evolved from the beginning. ”

At present, the public cloud market is still in a weak position compared to Ali. According to the IDC report, in 2017, Ali accounted for 45.5% of the market share, Tencent 10.3%, China Telecom 7.6%, and Jinshan Cloud 6.5%. The current backwardness is not shameful. What is really worth worrying about is the future development.

The traffic dividend will be exhausted, and the current situation of the Internet is basically fixed. It is imperative to adjust the organizational structure and change the strategic focus. It is understood that if you want to integrate Tencent's 2B business to establish a new structure, the leader may be Tang Daosheng, senior executive vice president of S10 Group and president of SNG.

In 2010, Chen Lei joined Tencent to establish Tencent Cloud and implemented a strategic strategy of occupying the market: providing free cloud services to early-stage startups through venture capital, etc.; providing cloud service packages to medium-term and mature entrepreneurial teams through media platforms. Providing free, large-scale computing power to the society while opening up Tencent’s own data model for running games and social.

But at that time, Tang Daosheng, the head of SNG, advocated profit first. In 2014, Chen Lei left the company. In 2016, Tencent began to pay attention to cloud computing, and began to grab the market with Ali and returned to the old road of Chen Lei design. Tang Daosheng said, “It is very clear now that the cloud business is the position that Tencent must win”.

Baidu and Ali's revenue model is essentially a search engine model, and its revenue and profit sources mainly depend on merchants. For Baidu, it is the enterprise that buys the keyword rankings; for Ali, it is the small shop owner or enterprise that buys the ranking under the Taobao Tmall system. Therefore, among the three BAT companies, only Tencent has been lacking in B-end sales capabilities and genes. Although there are online advertisements, such as revenue from corporate launches, it is not the company's focus and strength. At the end of the traffic dividend, forced to open up the B-side business, some difficulties will be difficult to avoid.

At the employee conference at the end of 2017, Ma Huateng said: “In management, the biggest problem we face is the internal organizational structure. Now Tencent needs more 2B capabilities, and it must be systematically implemented from the inside out. Combing & rdquo;.

Such organizational restructuring will inevitably encounter many pains: such as short-term conflicts of interest, departmental team security, inexperienced damage, etc.; and how to coordinate 2B's natural medium- and long-term attributes, and the current pursuit of KPI The contradiction formed by the organizational culture. The biggest source of resistance for corporate change is the private rights of employees. Adjustment and empowerment are an unacceptable process.

Alibaba Cloud has long since set up a company, and Tencent Cloud is just a business of SNG, one of the seven business groups. In the QQ era, in order to solve problems with the traditional Web-based business architecture, Tencent has accumulated experience in mass storage, so the cloud business is affiliated with SNG. The transformation of the enterprise will inevitably bring about the pain of personnel. However, SNG has a large number of 10 or even 15 years old employees, and no one is suitable. “Their merits are established in the battle between QQ and MSN”.

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The adjustment of the AI ​​team is also not an easy task. Baidu All in AI, Tencent AI in All, just a less than two days after leaving the company, the company has shrunk 90 billion Lu Qi, it seems a bit dwarfed. More complicated, Tencent currently has three major artificial intelligence teams: Tencent Excellent, AI Lab, and WeChat AI, each of which is affiliated with a different department. In a certain product field and trial and error time, the company can allow different exploration directions, but in the basic research level of AI and data, it is not ideal to be too scattered.

How on earth should we accomplish the necessary organizational restructuring and build our own moat with 2B business? It's time for Tencent to make the right decision because the market is changing so fast that the company doesn't have much time to think about it.

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