On October 23, Apple analyst Guo Mingli, who is also an analyst at Tianfeng Securities International, said that the sales of the iPhone XR were "better" than the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus models of the same period last year in the first three days or even the following days after the pre-order was made available.
In his latest report, Guo Mingli said that although the demand for the iPhone XR is lower than that for the flagship iPhone XS, the high-end line is built specifically for Apple fans and will be heavily pre-ordered once released, resulting in delays in shipment, but the iPhone XR LCD model Shipping momentum is "more stable" and over time, the model is bound to drive more users to upgrade, more than the previous iPhone 8 series.
Guo also said that the time of shipment of the iPhone XR, Apple's official online store, did not indicate the exact demand for the model, which came from the superficial phenomenon of retail channels and the scattered data obtained from the supply chain simply did not accurately determine consumer purchasing behavior.
Guo explains that in fact, the buyers who are really interested in the iPhone XR device are more ordinary consumers, who don't usually participate in the rush buying, and many consumers order directly through the operator channel, mainly because the operator channel usually provides more promotional activities, and consumers are willing to participate in such activities. Activities, due to the increase in pre-order offline channels, many operators have been postponed to the current delivery time of about two weeks.
Guo Mingli said in his report: "Because the iPhone XS and the iPhone XR have different target customers, we are not surprised that the initial delivery time after the pre-order of the iPhone XR is open is shorter than the iPhone XS series. The former is targeted at Apple's devoted fans, who snap up new models immediately after booking starts, while the latter is used to iOS by the average user, including customers who simply support the Apple brand, have a limited budget, or have no urgent switching needs.
Unlike the Guo Mingli report, many analysts expressed concern that when they saw the delivery time was so short, it meant that sales of the $749 iPhone model were not strong enough, or even tended to be weak. However, these analysis reports ensure that the background and key data references, simply through a variety of supply chain channels to inquire about Apple's order requirements.
For example, Taiwanese media have pointed out that Apple orders from some local parts suppliers have been cut, a seasonal cut that is extremely unusual because it is bigger than usual. There is also a report from another well-known analyst, Gene Munster (Gene Munster), released on Friday, saying that all color and storage models would be shipped very quickly after iPhone XR provided advance orders.
Guo pointed directly to the errors in such reports, saying that it was not accurate to extrapolate demand based on "short delivery times" because no one knew how many iPhone XR, Apple produced in total, nor could it be judged solely by color matching and capacity. In addition, although the first few days after opening pre-orders until October 26 to ship, but now most countries or regions have been postponed to 1-2 weeks of delivery, which also shows that the purchasing power of iPhone XR is not poor and more stable.
As early as last week, Guo Mingli said in another analysis that demand for the new iPhone XR would be higher than last year's iPhone 8 series. He also believes shipments of the iPhone XS are expected to increase from 33 million to 38 million in the fourth quarter of 2018, up 10% from the initial estimate.