Figure: Ericsson Chief Market Officer for Northeast Asia Zhang Zhiwei
5G is accelerating.
Among them, North America will expand to mobile terminal use cases and start commercial scale by 2019 after the 5G commercial use cases of FWA were opened in 2018. In Northeast Asia, represented by China, Japan and South Korea, South Korea is expected to announce commercial use by the end of 2018 and start commercial scale in 2019; China has already announced that it will start commercial trial in 2019 and promote commercial scale in 2020. The European region will focus on industrial Internet exploration, and it is expected that individual radical operators will be tested for commercial use in 2019.
"The commercial rhythm of 5G is closely related to the progress of terminal industry." Zhang Zhiwei said that the first 5G smartphone that meets the 3GPP standard is expected to be on the market in early 2019, and the 5G smartphone that supports medium and high frequency bands is expected to be on the market in the second half of 2019.
Ericsson expects that by 2023, the ratio of 5G users in North America will reach 48%, making it the most penetrating market in the world. But in terms of absolute number of users, Northeast Asia will be the world's largest 5G market.
Zhang Zhiwei emphasized that 5G and 4G are not alternative relationships, and they will coexist for a long time. "There is no need to develop 5G by converting 4G users into 5G users. Even without replacing 4G, 5G will find its own differentiated place to live. He analyzed that many of the existing 4G capabilities are sufficient to support MBB applications, which should be supported by existing network investments as much as possible to reduce costs.
How Operators Dig 5G
The industry agrees that 5G will open up unlimited business opportunities, and the biggest business opportunity is to open up the industry Internet of Things market.
According to Ericsson's expectation, by 2026, the digital economic income of all ICT participants will reach $3.458 trillion, 38% of which will be 5G-driven. Up to 47% ($619 billion) of the $1307 trillion in 5G-related revenue will be earned by operators.
"But out of the $619 billion, operators can only get one-third of their revenue if they only do pure carrier business. Operators need to use 5G for transformation. As service enablers and service creators, telecom operators can gain an additional 36% growth potential from industrial digitization. Zhang Zhiwei pointed out that 10 vertical sectors with additional growth potential for operators are manufacturing, energy industry, public safety, health, public transport, media entertainment, automobile, financial services, retail and agriculture.
In Ericsson's survey, two-thirds of respondents believed that industrial digital income would exceed connected income in 2026. Sixty percent of respondents believe that operators today are just providers of networks and connections.
Zhang Zhiwei said that 5G is a use case driven transformation, operators can confirm the priority of investment as long as they find use cases, and all the problems will be solved. "To dig up gold after 5G arrival, operators have to upgrade their value chain," he said. If the operator stays on the networkDevelopmentAt the human level, they will be in trouble. To solve the problem of where 5G can make money, we need to jump out of the framework of network developers.
Promoting 5G Industry Chain Cooperation
It is reported that Ericsson has signed 40 5G pilot contracts worldwide, and has jointly explored 5G use cases in various fields with 45 universities and research institutes and 22 industry partners.
In promoting 5G industrial chain cooperation and interoperability, Ericsson and Intel cooperated in the European market in September 2018 to complete 3.5GHz band NSA data call based on 3GPP standard, which is the first time in European market. In October 2018, Ericsson and Qualcomm announced the first use of mobile terminal size in 3.5GHz band to complete 3GPP standard. 5G OTA calls; in November 2018, Ericsson signed a contract with Kaiji Technology Co., Ltd. (WNC) to launch 5G mobile hotspot routers for 5G pilot customers.
In terms of accelerating the commercial deployment of 5G network, Ericsson won the first 5G commercial contract from Verizon in December 2017; in February 2018, Ericsson released 5G commercial platform to provide software upgrading solutions; in September 2018, Ericsson won a multi-year contract from T-Mobile US $3.5 billion; in the same month, Ericsson worked in China. In the third phase of 5G testing organized by the Ministry of Information, NSA and SA testing projects were successfully completed; in October 2018, Ericsson assisted Verizon Commercial 5G FWA services.