In the face of ARM, Google, Qualcomm, Intel and other US companies are about to terminate cooperation, Huawei is ready to respond to the "dark moments".
A ban on the United States has ushered in its dangerous moments. ARM, Google, Qualcomm, Intel and other US companies have been smashed out and will terminate cooperation with Huawei.
Losing ARM is equivalent to cutting off the chip source, and will even affect Huawei's spare tire program. Many of the chips designed by Huawei HiSilicon are based on ARM.
Losing Google Huawei lost all access to the Android operating system, Huawei can only use AOSP to continue to develop new Android system, can not use other Google services such as Gmail, Google Play, YouTube and so on.
Losing Qualcomm, "Huawei" brand and "Glory" brand mobile phone product line will be affected by the adoption of the modem chip provided by Qualcomm.
Losing Intel, Huawei's PC business will suffer from the impact of using its processor.
Chess to this game, what should Huawei's crisis be?
On May 22nd, Ren Zhengfei issued an e-mail "People who don't understand the strategic retreat, they will not be strategic offensive", and carried out a series of strategic adjustments, and said that the adjustment of individual places does not affect the big pattern, and it is necessary to protect the adjustment part. Staff.
Ren Zhengfei mentioned: “In the next five years, we will invest 100 billion US dollars in research and development funds to solve credible problems through network architecture reconstruction. We need to expand to the parts we serve, to the large parts we need, to master the design and production process. Internet of vehicles, artificial intelligence, and edge computing are our three major breakthroughs in the future. Huawei's industry portfolio needs to be balanced. ”
When the US government deployed Huawei's global 5G network to gain first-mover advantage, it began to take the lead in curbing behavior. For Huawei, its supply chain will bear a lot of pressure in the short run. But in the long run, after the robbery, Huawei will be even stronger.
ARM: Breaking the chip source?
ARM's ban on Huawei has caused industry shocks, and it is a giant in the field of mobile terminal chips. Samsung Exynos processor, Qualcomm Snapdragon processor, Apple A11 chip, Huawei mobile phone processor, etc. all adopt ARM technology, and need to obtain ARM technology license. ARM's move means to cut off the chip source. Many of the chips designed by Huawei's HiSilicon are currently manufactured using ARM's basic technology and require a patent license fee.
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reported on May 22 that its internal documents showed that ARM, a UK-based chip design company, had informed its employees on the 16th that its design contained “technology from the United States”. Suspend business with Huawei. ARM also stated that it “obeys all the latest regulations set by the US government”.
ARM, formerly known as Acorn Computer Corporation, was founded in 1978 in Cambridge, England, and it contributed to the PC revolution in the early 1980s. In 1990, in search of low-power chips, Apple found Acorn and funded the Acorn chip division. It was led by 12 engineers responsible for chip architecture. Since then, ARM has been established.
In the future, ARM has created a completely different business model from Intel, the chip's predecessor.
As the overlord in the chip field, Intel is all in one place from research and development design, manufacturing chip to sales, and ARM is relatively lighter. It is a chip maker that neither produces chips nor sells chips. It only sells chip technology licenses. The customer is charged an authorization fee, and the ARM can then draw the customer for each chip sold. At present, Intel is the chip giant in the traditional PC and server market, while ARM is the giant in the field of mobile terminal chips.
According to ARM's financial report, in the fiscal year of FY18, sales in China accounted for about 20% of ARM's global sales, and most of this figure was contributed by Huawei HiSilicon.
Jeff · Geoff Blaber of CCS Insight, a market research organization, believes that: "ARM is the basis for Huawei's smartphone chip design, so this is an "insurmountable" barrier for Huawei. ”
A chip industry analyst said to the investment network that ARM is very important to Huawei, and all smartphone tablet architectures are ARM systems. However, many important copyrights of ARM, Huawei bought for a long time, even for life, so this part of the problem is not big. But there is a big problem. Now that copyright can last for two or three years, after two or three years, ARM can update data or architecture. Can it still be used? At that time, if you buy new ones, you can't buy them.
According to media sources, Ningnanshan said in its public account that even if ARM no longer authorizes a new version of Huawei, Huawei can continue to develop itself based on the previously purchased version. In January 2019, Huawei explained the public's doubts about the autonomy of the ARM architecture in a market event. Huawei has a permanent license for the ARM V8 architecture, and this is the latest commercial architecture. Huawei can design the processor completely independently of the external environment.
From the public number & ldquo; Ningnan Mountain & rdquo;
The relevant person in charge of Huawei said on May 20 that Huawei's server chip 鲲鹏 920 can fully realize its own production. He added that although this chip is based on the ARM architecture of the US company, Huawei has obtained a permanent license. In addition, Huawei in the remaining supply chain can achieve independent production.
According to the 21st Century Business Herald, on this matter, ARM replied that the company acted in accordance with the latest restrictions imposed by the US government and maintained dialogue with relevant US government agencies to ensure compliance. And said, "ARM attaches importance to the relationship with long-term partner Hisilicon (Huawei chip subsidiary), and we hope that this matter can be quickly resolved. ”
Google: The most important application ecology
As early as 2012, Ren Zhengfei gave the answer to why Huawei did its own operating system. “We are doing terminal operating systems for strategic reasons. If they suddenly break our food, Android will not use it for me. The Windows Phone 8 system is not used for me anymore. Are we stupid? Similarly, when we were doing high-end chips, I did not object to buying high-end chips from the United States. I think you should use their high-end chips as much as possible to understand it. Only when they don't sell it to us, our things are a little bit worse, we have to make use of it. ”
This day finally arrived in seven years. After the US government included Huawei in the trade control list of entities, Google announced that it would stop part of its cooperation with Huawei. Google and Huawei's "broken" will enable Huawei to continue to develop new Android systems using AOSP, and no other Google services such as Gmail, Google Play, YouTube, etc. can be used.
A chip industry veteran said that Google's impact on Huawei is mainly in the application ecosystem, which has basically no impact on domestic users, mainly foreign users, "If you can no longer use Google's application services, the mobile phone is equivalent. Only call function. ”
According to the British newspaper The Guardian, this may cause Huawei to lose nearly half of the global market, which does not include 5G network equipment.
On the afternoon of May 22nd, Japan's two major communication operators KDDI and Softbank said that they would postpone the launch of the new Huawei P30 series contract machine. Another major operator, NTT docomo, also placed an appointment to suspend Huawei's new machine in the discussion topic.
For Google, the current price for this decision seems less obvious, and there are many other mobile phone brand customers. However, in the medium and long term, this decision will cause great damage to Google. The reason lies in two aspects. One is the loss of big customers like Huawei, and the other is that other mobile phone manufacturers will start to realize that Google is not completely trustworthy.
"Finance" reports that Huawei has four ways to solve Google's operating system problems. First, Huawei provides mobile terminal hardware, local partners customize Android operating system, and purchase licenses for Google mobile services from Google; Cooperate with the third-party app store (App Store); the third is to complete their own mobile application system from hardware, software to the app store; fourth is to develop a new "old" on the existing Android platform; Fork & rdquo;, and I promoted the development and upgrade of subsequent versions, and even developed a new open source mobile operating system.
Huawei intends to use its own operating system to break through Google's "blockade", and its consumer business CEO Yu Chengdong revealed that Huawei's operating system OS for next-generation technology will be available soon this fall, and at the latest next spring. “If the Android app is recompiled, the running performance is improved by more than 60% on this operating system. This is a future-oriented microkernel. ”
Huawei's operating system is “Hong Meng”, which has been planned since 2012 and is intended to be a replacement for Google's Android system.
On May 24th, “Huawei Hongmeng” trademark appeared on the website of the Trademark Office of the State Intellectual Property Office. The application date is August 24, 2018, the registration announcement date is May 14, 2019, and the exclusive permission period is from 2019. May 14 to May 13, 2029. From the introduction, Huawei Hongmeng can be applied to operating system programs, computer operating programs, computer operating software, and so on.
In addition, Aptoide, a Portuguese third-party app store, is negotiating with Huawei to become a replacement for Google. Apexide's founder and CEO, Trevisdos, said: "We believe that this is an interesting market opportunity, and we can build a partnership with Huawei to solve their problems. Previously, I have seen a senior executive of Huawei, and my colleagues in the Shenzhen office have been in contact with Huawei. When this news came out, we discussed again whether there is an opportunity for cooperation. ”
Aptoide is one of Google Play's largest replacements for Google Play, with more than 900,000 apps and 200 million active users. Although Aptoide's cooperation model with Huawei has not yet been determined, there are two possible ways to operate. Huawei directly installs the Aptoide store or integrates the contents of the Aptoide store into the Huawei store through an application programming interface (API).
Intel: Love relationship is coming to the freezing point
Affected by the US government ban, Huawei's 20-year partner Intel also included it in the "blacklist".
Intel is the main supplier of Huawei's server chips. Zhuang Binghan, vice president of Intel's sales and marketing division and general manager of Huawei's global business, described Intel's relationship with Huawei in the previous interview. "Intel and Huawei have cooperated for more than 20 years." From the earliest device sales to today's common definition products, new technology introduction, cooperative innovation, ecological chain and common market development, Intel and Huawei not only have deep cooperation in product technology, including market development. There are many cooperations in the construction of ecological chains, brand building, and so on.
In Huawei's official website, there is even a article entitled "Huawei in the Eyes of Intel", which states that there is a special team within Intel. “For Huawei, it represents Intel Corporation; for Intel, it represents Huawei. "In addition to the traditional computer business, the team's business scope covers almost all of the ICT product technologies of both companies," said Fang Yuesheng, director of global operations at Intel Corporation.
Just in December 2018, Intel also successfully completed the 5G NR interoperability test of the 2.6GHz band based on the 3GPP Release 15 standard September version and SA architecture in cooperation with Huawei. This is the world's first 5G interoperability test based on the SA architecture in the 2.6GHz band. It is a milestone in the mature and large-scale commercial development of the 5G NR industry in the 2.6GHz band.
Less than half a year later, this love-like relationship came to a freezing point because of a ban.
"Japan Daily Economic News" reported that Huawei wants to become the top five PC manufacturers by 2021. In order to achieve this goal, shipments will triple this year. Today, Intel’s confession of Huawei will inevitably have a huge impact on Huawei.
How does Huawei solve the problem of “breaking grain”?
Huawei is also developing CPUs for its own computer products, but has not disclosed any progress in this area. It has been reported that domestically produced autonomous processors can complete the “replenishment”. For example, in April this year, Shanghai Zhaoxin Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. (Zhaoxin) developed the latest domestic x86 processor. Among them, the first series KX-6000 processor adopts SoC single-chip design, complete integration of CPU, GPU, chipset, and adopts the most advanced 16nm manufacturing process in China. Megacore plans to mass-produce the processor in September this year. However, domestic alternatives still have a big gap with first-tier US companies such as Intel.
The above-mentioned chip industry practitioners said that domestic chips can indeed find alternatives, but the quality and performance can not be compared, this is like BYD and Mercedes-Benz, "How can a 50,000 car be the same as a 500,000?" ”
Qualcomm cutoff: "We have prepared for this" & rdquo;
The continuation of Huawei's continuation of Qualcomm.
Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter, in addition to Google, chip makers including Intel, Qualcomm, Xilinx and Broadcom have also told employees that they are receiving further It will not be supplied to Huawei before the notice.
Qualcomm is a major supplier of Huawei's mid-range mobile phone modem chips, including the “Huawei” brand and the “Glory” brand product line. At the same time, Qualcomm also provides modem chips to Huawei's Windows platform notebooks. Just in January of this year, Qualcomm also announced a short-term licensing agreement with Huawei. Huawei promised to pay Qualcomm a technology license fee of $150 million per quarter.
However, Huawei believes that Qualcomm's supply cuts have little effect. On May 19th, Huawei published the news that Ren Zhengfei, the founder and president, was interviewed by the Japanese media in the “Sound Community”. Ren Zhengfei said that even if Qualcomm and other US suppliers do not sell chips to Huawei, Huawei is “no problem” because “we have already prepared for this.” ”
Qualcomm also claimed that Huawei currently has 54% of its modem chips developed independently. Only 22% of the modem chips are from Qualcomm, and the rest are from other manufacturers.
Most importantly, Huawei will also compete with Qualcomm for 5G.
At present, the five most popular products of the 5G modem are Qualcomm Xiaolong X50, Huawei Heis Baron and MediaTek Helio M70. According to the Hong Kong South China Morning Post, researcher Atherton Research chief analyst Jean · Baptiste Su said that Huawei's 5G chip Balong 5000 is at least six ahead of Qualcomm's similar products. month.
However, Qualcomm is currently facing a lot of trouble.
The US District Court for the Northern District of California decided on the 21st local time that the US Federal Trade Commission won an antitrust lawsuit against Qualcomm initiated in 2017. The judgment found that Qualcomm had bundled sales, restricted competition, and ordered five remedies. The content includes not increasing the patent license fee by limiting the chip supply, not requiring exclusive supply, and not allowing other chip manufacturers to obtain permission. Qualcomm's share price plummeted 10.86% on May 22, and the market value evaporated by more than 70 billion, the biggest one-day drop in the past two and a half years since January 2, 2017.
In the future, on the 5G battlefield, Qualcomm, which is deeply mired in the anti-monopoly crisis, will face a more severe test after it has been squandered for Huawei.
On the other hand, Huawei, which has never stopped looking for “prepared tires”, has already responded to a series of strategic adjustments such as improving investment and research and development funds, restructuring network architecture, and balancing industry portfolios. Preparation.