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Tesla's February delivery delay in China challenges its goal of 500000 vehicles this year

via:CnBeta     time:2020/2/28 20:09:57     readed:300

The global spread of the epidemic will make the supply chain of car companies tighten, and whether this affects the production capacity of Tesla's plants in the United States is of great concern.Novel coronavirus infection in China has affected the epidemic of New Zealand's new year's disease. The number of new cars registered in China in January was 3563, compared with 6643 in December last year, a 46.36% decline.

At the same time, Tesla's super factory in China was delayed until February 10, which will affect the delivery time of model 3, which was originally scheduled to be delivered in February.

"The delivery of the Model 3 made in Shanghai will be delayed by one to 1.5 weeks," said Zach Kirkhorn, Tesla's chief financial officer, in a conference call for the fourth quarter of the 2019 fiscal year that Tesla has held. "For now, it looks like delivery in early February after the Spring Festival will be suspended, and Tesla will try to make up for that until the epidemic gets better," Tao Lin, Tesla's global vice president, said on social media. Plans are being developed ". While the former said it had a limited impact on Tesla's earnings for the quarter, Tesla's stock price has fallen sharply in the near future and investors including Morgan Stanley have expressed concerns about its market outlook as the epidemic has affected global investors'concerns about a slowing economy.

Epidemic situation or impact on Supply Chain

With the spread of the epidemic, investment institutions are really beginning to focus on Tesla's production capacity and delivery expectations. In 2019, Tesla delivered 367500 vehicles worldwide and 42000 vehicles in the Chinese market. Tesla has set an annual delivery target of 500000 vehicles in 2020, up about 40% from 2019. The confidence behind the expected growth comes from the launch of super plants in China and the further expansion of demand.

Since February 10, Tesla's factory in China has officially resumed work. Sun Xiaohe, Tesla's epidemic prevention liaison and director of the high tech industry and technology innovation Department of the administrative committee of Lingang New Area, said in an interview that it is expected that the super factory will achieve a production capacity of about 12000 vehicles per month, which will gradually increase.

However, the industry believes that Tesla's production capacity is still affected by the resumption of work by parts suppliers. "Generally speaking, suppliers have some inventory, which can maintain production in a short time. However, the automobile is an assembly line production, once the supply of a part under the epidemic situation is insufficient, the overall production capacity will be dragged down, and further impact may appear in March. "An insider of a car company said in an interview with reporters. At the same time, the spread of the epidemic around the world will also make the supply chain of car companies tight, and whether this affects Tesla's production capacity in the United States is of great concern.

Zac Kirkhorn spoke in the Tesla's earnings call above and was "keeping an eye on whether there will be disruption in the supply chain of cars made in Fremont, U.S." From the present point of view, the parts supply chain system of multinational automobile enterprises are affected by different degrees. U.S. automakers, including GM, are using charter flights to airlift Chinese parts to the U.S. to keep local factories working. Jaguar Land Rover, the UK's largest carmaker, will bring Chinese parts by air to the UK to sustain production, but will only meet production consumption for two weeks due to the impact of the new outbreak of corona pneumonia on the supply chain, according to Reuters.

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson said Tesla was more concerned about the spread of the virus than other automakers, as Tesla's short-term car production and revenue growth were heavily dependent on its new factories in China.

Whether the target of 500000 vehicles can be achieved as scheduled

In addition to production, Tesla's success in delivering 500000 vehicles depends on two factors: first, whether the epidemic will affect the demand for new energy vehicles, especially in the Chinese market. According to the market retail data of February calculated by Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger Federation, by February 23, the retail volume of domestic passenger vehicles per day was only more than 3000, down 89% year-on-year, so he expected that the market retail volume in February would drop 75% year-on-year. In such a bleak background, the expectation of market consumption is also declining.

Although accidents caused by Tesla's autopilot function have occurred many times before, and Tesla's market share has been expanding, the detailed disclosure of NTSB's findings will undoubtedly cause uncertainty in Tesla's performance.

Influenced by the above factors, Tesla's share price has changed from the previous surge, but has gone through thousands of miles. Tesla shares closed at $679, down $99.8 from the previous day. In more than 20 days, Tesla's share price has fallen nearly 30% from its previous high.

However, in the Chinese market, Tesla's electric vehicle delivery in January was second only to BYD and SAIC passenger vehicles, although the month on month delivery volume shrank.

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