Reporter / Li Zhenghao / Beijing Report
The reporter of China Business News noted that China Mobile had established a military order to build 300000 5g base stations by the end of 2020, and China Telecom and China Unicom also announced to build and share 250000 5g base stations in 2020. If the 5g scale of China's Radio and television network is added in 2020, the industry expects that China will invest at least 550000-600000 5g base stations in 2020.
According to the standard conversion of China Mobile's investment of 24 billion yuan to build 50000 5g base stations in 2019, the current cost of building a 5g base station is about 480000 yuan. That is to say, in 2020, the investment scale of the whole Chinese operation market in 5g main equipment will reach 260-290 billion yuan.
By the end of 2019, China had built more than 130,000 five G base stations, according to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. By the end of 2020, China will build about 700,000 five G base stations. Recent forecasts from Huawei side also show that the world's five G base stations will grow from 500,000 at the end of 2019 to 1.5 million at the end of 2020, with China accounting for more than 50 percent of the world's five base stations this year. This shows the importance of the Chinese market for communications equipment manufacturers.
Emerging market pattern
Marked by the issuance of 5 licences by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom and China Radio and Television on June 6 G 2019, China's five G of firing shots have been fired. With this as the dividing line, the construction of five pilot commercial networks G Chinese operators in the first half of 2019 and the construction of five networks in the second half of 2019 have made great changes in the competition pattern of communication equipment manufacturers in the Chinese market.
Central china provincial operators told reporters that the five G of network construction can be broadly divided into core network, access network, carrying network three parts, among them, the core network in five G operators equivalent to the role of the brain, access network equivalent to limbs, carrying network can be regarded as a nervous system. Taking China Mobile as an example, several collections have been carried out since the beginning of 2019, which have involved all aspects G 5 core networks, access networks and carrying networks, and the competitive pattern of China's 5 G communication equipment market can also be outlined from the bidding results.
China Mobile announced in early February 2019
China Mobile was eager to announce its five G licence on June 6,2019
This round of procurement is actually divided into three parts: core network upgrading to 5g, (access network) 5g phase I wireless project and 5g terminal (test version). Among them, in the related procurement projects of core network upgrading to 5g, worth about 200 million yuan, Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia and ZTE won 219 sets, 153 sets, 56 sets and 22 sets of MME equipment, as well as 369, 231, 60 and 21 sets of sae-gw equipment. However, the operators mentioned above remind reporters that the core network part of this round of bidding is mainly the upgrading and transformation of the original manufacturers' equipment in China Mobile 4G core network, that is, which manufacturer the original 4G core network equipment belongs to, and which manufacturer is still promoting this round of upgrading.
This round of 5 G terminal (beta version) bidding procurement of a total of 10100 5 G mobile phones, including 5000HuaweiMate 20X、 accounting for 49.5%,2000 ZTE A10Pro、 accounting for 19.8%,2000 Xiaomi MIX 3、 accounting for 19.8%,1000 units OPPO Reno、 accounting for 9.90%,100 units accounting for 0.99%. Also purchased 7000 sets of 5 G CPE,Huawei, ZTE each accounted for 71.43%,28.57%.
China Mobile did not disclose the details of winning the bid for the 5g phase I wireless project (access network), which is the most valuable (about 19.2 billion yuan) in this round of bidding.
By December 2019, China Mobile has launched another bidding for SPN (sliced packet network) 5g bearer network involving 26 provinces. The bidding results involving about 10 billion yuan have been released on March 10, 2020, among which Huawei, Fenghuo communication and ZTE have won 54.81%, 32.50% and 12.69% of the bidding shares respectively.
The operator told reporters that in 2019 china mobile, china telecom and china unicom each built about 50,000,40,000 and 40,000 base stations, accounting for about 50 percent of the 130,000Huawei,25 percent for ericsson and nokia ,20 percent for zte and 5 percent for datang.
ZTE may be the biggest beneficiary
Judging from the distribution of domestic five G bidding shares in 2019,Huawei is undoubtedly the biggest winner among them. ZTE may not have reached expectations, because in the past ZTE's domestic market share was close to 25%, while the industry generally believed that ZTE's share in the domestic five G market should be between 20%~30%, indicating that ZTE still has room for improvement at home. Foreign firms such as ericsson and nokia are further squeezed in china.
At present, China Mobile has started the collection of the main equipment of the second phase wireless access network in 5 G 2020, involving 28 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government, with a total demand of more than 230000 five G base stations, with a total tender amount of up to 46 billion yuan. China Mobile's goal is to ensure that the number of five G base stations reaches 300,000 by the end of 2020. China Telecom and China Unicom also recently announced an estimated 250,000 base stations
Industry insiders pointed out that the total purchase plan of the three major operators in this round is close to 500000 5g base stations, and the purchase amount of base stations alone in this round will exceed 100 billion yuan, which has a great impact on the global communication equipment market.
From the perspective of public bidding, 28 provinces and cities of China Mobile have set up 2-4 bid winners, of which only one province has set up 4 bid winners, five provinces have set up 2 bid winners, and the rest provinces have set up 3 bid winners.
China Mobile also roughly divides the corresponding bid winning shares, with the first largest bidder's share set between 50% and 70%, and 50% to 60% accounting for the majority. The second large and medium-sized standard person's share is set at 25% - 40%, and 25% - 30% accounts for the majority. The third winning bidder's share is set at 10% - 20%, and the majority is 15%. Only Hubei Mobile has set up 4 winning bidders, and the fourth winning bidder's share is set at 5%.
In the industry's view, domestic operators of the main equipment bidding has been using a strategy of about three, this not only to prevent a single equipment company to dominate, but also to avoid excessive suppliers may cause the late operation and maintenance pressure. The person further analyzed that China Mobile's current round of bidding in most provinces is basically a continuation of the adopted
According to an industry analyst at Societe Generale Securities, domestic 5g main equipment providers are mainly Huawei, ZTE and Datang Telecom, with an overall share of 70% - 80%, of which Datang Telecom has a smaller share, which should be around 5%. The share of Ericsson and Nokia, two overseas equipment manufacturers, should be around 20%.
The analyst also believes that due to the gradual loss of technical standard voice and the failure in emerging market share competition, overseas equipment manufacturers such as Ericsson and Nokia have declined significantly in the 4G era. This change made Huawei beat Ericsson to become the world's largest communication equipment manufacturer in 2013. At present, ZTE and 4G in the 5g Era Nokia of the era is highly comparable in operator business, and is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of the rebalancing of the global communication equipment market in the 5g era. ZTE of the 5g era is expected to look around the world in the global communication equipment market competition.
Based on the Dell of foreign consultants
The analysts said that in terms of global market share in 2019, it was not easy for Huawei to remain the world's first share under U.S. ban pressure; ZTE has recovered slowly from the 2018 U.S. sanctions, and its global share has risen, and is expected to follow suit in the next few years; and Ericsson, Nokia, and Cisco's failure to expand their global market share in face of sanctions against Chinese manufacturers is clearly a failure, and this trend is likely to continue in the current five G global competition.