Article / Liu Xuehui, Zhang Cheng
Source: ID: LiBusiness
In the long-term observation of the development of China's smart phone industry, the author finds that the product rhythm of each mobile phone manufacturer is a good angle to accurately predict the future development trend of each enterprise.
If a mobile phone enterprise maintains an orderly product rhythm, it means not only the industry leading production and research capacity and supply chain capacity, but also the healthy inventory level and stable channel shipping capacity. If the product release rhythm of an enterprise is chaotic, fast and slow, there must be problems in the core business links such as production and research, supply chain or channel.
In 2015-2018, Xiaomi mobile phones were re launched. Due to the short business of the supply chain and offline channels, there were major problems in the release pace of products, which affected the overall sales volume of the enterprise. At this stage, Huawei, oppo and vivo all benefit from the accumulation in the fields of hardware production and research, supply chain and offline channels, and maintain the product rhythm leading the market. Among them, Huawei's mate / P series, oppo's R series and vivo's X series and other star product lines are all rising during this period, bringing the rapid growth of sales of the three.
However, in 2019, we found that this situation is turning over. Xiaomi Mobile has been in good order since its unstable performance in product rhythm in the past few years, while several other mobile phone companies are facing some pains.
The release of Xiaomi 9 series and redmi K20 series represents the initial formation of Xiaomi double brand and double flagship product portfolio. After that, they began to show their skills. On December 10, 2019, the redmi brand released the redmi K30 5g mobile phone. The redmi K30 5g mobile phone uses the world's first Qualcomm snapdragon 765 5g processor, and the starting price is only 1999 yuan.
Compared with its competitors, redmi K30 has a higher price performance ratio, which enables it to quickly open up the situation in 5g market and achieve a sales volume of over one million in less than three months after its domestic listing. It is reported that due to the high price, the sales volume of glory V30 series is bleak after release, and the sales volume is even worse due to the impact of the listing of redmi K30.
Compared with the release of Xiaomi 9 in 2019, Xiaomi also provides a low configuration version of Xiaomi 9 se to ensure sales volume. This release of Xiaomi 10, with the starting price far higher than last year's Xiaomi 9, Xiaomi no longer provides a low configuration version of Xiaomi 10 se, but provides a more extreme configuration of Xiaomi 10 Pro, we can see from this detail that Xiaomi brand is more calm and confident.
After the launch of Xiaomi 10 series, oppo and vivo have also successively released flagship mobile phones equipped with Xiaolong 865 processor. Among them, oppo released find x2 series, vivo released nex 3S and iqoo 3, but from the product potential, the strong combination of Xiaomi 10 and Xiaomi 10 Pro made it far more popular than other manufacturers' flagship mobile phone products. The sales results also verify this point. When Xiaomi 10 mobile phones are on sale for one minute, the sales volume will exceed 200 million. Xiaomi 10 Pro mobile phones will be on sale for 55 seconds, and the sales volume will exceed 200 million. This represents Xiaomi's successful entry into the high-end market where Huawei mate / P series is located.
Thanks to the drive of redmi K30 and Xiaomi 10 series, Xiaomi realized the global shipment of 6 million smartphones at the peak of the epidemic in February, surpassing Huawei's 5.5 million. Although this does not represent Xiaomi's overall strength surpassing Huawei, to some extent, it reflects the significant improvement of Xiaomi's product strength, and the pressure is changing from Xiaomi to Huawei.
In the business world, there is a famous flywheel effect, which means that the development of enterprises is like driving the flywheel. At the initial stage, a lot of effort is needed. However, with the promotion of a circle, enterprises will rotate as fast as the flywheel and form a strong potential energy.
While the redmi K30 and Xiaomi 10 series still maintain a high market heat, on March 24, the redmi brand held a new product release conference of great concern, and then launched the 5g flagship phones redmi K30 pro and redmi K30 Pro zoom version.
With the most popular Xiaolong 865 processor, redmi's brand image will be further improved, the position of K30 series flagship will be consolidated, and the price of 2999 yuan will be super cost-effective, which will enable it to snatch a large number of users from other smartphone manufacturers.
For the whole Xiaomi group, with the release of redmi K30 pro, it has become the only flagship mobile phone (Xiaomi 10, Xiaomi 10 pro and redmi K30 Pro) in the world with three top chips of Qualcomm snapdragon 865, which has multiple insurances for the success of Xiaomi group in the medium and high-end market in 2020.
From Xiaomi 9, to redmi K20 / K20 pro, to redmi K30, to Xiaomi 10 / 10 pro, to redmi K30 pro, Xiaomi has just released every flagship product at the right time in the recent year. The configuration of each product has accurately grasped the most cutting-edge technology trend of the industry, and undoubtedly reached the best product state in the past decade. Behind the orderly product rhythm, Xiaomi's comprehensive capabilities in the fields of capital, strategy, production research, supply chain and channel are concentrated.
First of all, in the field of capital, Xiaomi group successfully listed in 2018, and achieved 10 billion level of large-scale profits in 2018 and 2019, with tens of billions of yuan of cash reserves sitting on its books. Abundant funds make Xiaomi no longer have any financial pressure in the fields of R & D, supply chain and channel construction, but can invest more easily, which is the premise for Xiaomi mobile phone to achieve orderly product rhythm.
In the field of supply chain, Xiaomi was once short-lived, which resulted in the problem that Xiaomi often sold well but could not supply in large scale, which not only made Xiaomi miss many of the best selling points, but also was widely criticized for hungry marketing. Xiaomi's sales crisis in 2015-2018 had nothing to do with its immature supply chain at that time. With the accumulation of experience, Xiaomi's current supply chain capacity has been greatly improved, and it has been able to support the stable shipment of more than 100 million mobile phones every year, which is world-class. The epidemic confirmed Xiaomi's supply chain capability. As of March 19, the overall return rate of redmi supply chain reached 80% - 90%. Redmi K30 Pro was positively responded by important supply chain partners such as Samsung, Qualcomm, huiding technology and Meguiar technology to achieve full production and lay the foundation for the next large-scale shipment of redmi K30 pro.
If there is no strong supply chain capability to support it, it will cause enterprises to fail to supply large-scale products and miss the best sales time point when the mobile phone is hot; when the capacity of enterprises is greatly increased, the sales heat of mobile phones often has passed, which will cause a large number of unsalable product inventory of enterprises. Once there is a shortage or inventory accumulation, the product rhythm of the enterprise will be completely disrupted.
If an enterprise wants to solve the inventory problem, it not only has high requirements for supply chain management, but also has a key element, that is, the enterprise should have a balanced channel system to quickly digest product inventory. If the channel structure is unreasonable, it is easy to affect the sales volume. For example, the pneumonia epidemic almost led to the two-month suspension of offline retail in China. At this time, if there is no online channel to share the shipping pressure with the overseas market, the enterprise will encounter a difficult dilemma.
At present, Xiaomi group has formed a three-dimensional channel system combining domestic and overseas, online and offline. Among them, from the perspective of global layout, Xiaomi's overseas market sales have exceeded the domestic market. From the perspective of the domestic market, Xiaomi has well seized the opportunity of the rise of offline shopping centers in China, made full use of its advantages in multi categories and cost performance, completed a large-scale offline retail store layout in shopping centers all over the country, formed an online and offline five five five-year balanced channel structure, and let Xiaomi get rid of the risk of excessive dependence on online single channel in the early stage, so as to keep Xiaomi sustainable Stable delivery volume is guaranteed.
Strong cash reserve, clear two brand strategy, industry-leading production research and supply chain capabilities, domestic and foreign, online and offline combination of three-dimensional channel system, these elements combined to ultimately ensure Xiaomi's current orderly product rhythm. At the same time, Xiaomi's other competitors in China have some problems.
Huawei's core problem is that its mate series and P series have less and less first mover advantage in the high-end market. In the past, Xiaomi, oppo and vivo mainly focused on the cost-effective market, making Huawei take the lead in the high-end market. Now, with the layout of Xiaomi, oppo and vivo in the high-end market, as well as the decline of the starting price of iPhone, the price range competition of Huawei mate and P series products is fierce. It is reported that Huawei will hold a global launch of P40 series products on March 26. The P40 series still uses the Kirin 9905g processor adopted by mate 30 series, which makes it fall into the encirclement of many high-end flagship mobile phones with Xiaolong 865 processor at its birth. It is difficult to reproduce the market heat of previous years.
In the early stage, glory brand has fully benchmarked millet mode, focusing on the Internet, young people and cost-effective market, which has made it a great success. However, in the past two years, glory's strategic positioning has become uncertain. It wants to maintain its online advantages and layout the offline market, which will make it fall into the online and offline game, and lose flexibility in product and pricing. For example, the glory V30 with 5g chip is priced at 3299 yuan, and the glory V30 pro with Kirin 990 5g chip is priced at 3899 yuan. This is because the glory brand loses the advantage of cost performance in order to protect the offline channel profit, which makes it self destruct.
After the glory V30 series has played the most important card of Kirin 9905g chip, there are not many cards to play in the short term. It is reported that the glory 30s, which will be released on March 30, is only equipped with Kirin 820 chip. The performance of Kirin 990 chip has lagged behind that of Xiaolong 865, and the glory 30s uses Kirin 820 chip, which is even lower than Kirin 990, which makes it difficult for it to do much.
In the past, oppo and vivo, who learn from the same school, have adopted similar competitive strategies, which determines that their past success models are highly similar, and the crisis they face today is the same. Oppo and vivo are currently facing two core problems. One is that traditional offline channels such as communication street, which were highly dependent in the past, are rapidly declining. On the other hand, the layout of high-end market is relatively weak. In this context, OV began to seek online transformation and high-end layout, but in the past, the heavy burden of offline channels made ov feel tied up in the process of transformation. Among them, oppo cancelled the R series of its flagship product line, which used to be the main offline market, instead of Reno series, which is a new flagship product line that takes both online and offline markets into account, and launched find X Series in the high-end market.
First of all, the progress of oppo find X series is hard to say. After the launch of the first product, it did not cause much industry reaction, and then because the new product did not meet the expected cancellation of the release, until two years later, the second generation product find x2 series was launched. Find X2 series is a good flagship machine product, but the starting price of find x2 5499 yuan and find x2 Pro 6999 yuan The starting price of RMB makes many consumers fear it, which determines that find x2 series is still destined to be a niche product in this generation.
However, the Reno series, the main product line newly launched by oppo, is still under exploration. In 2019, a series of products with low identification, such as Reno, Reno 10 times zoom version, Reno ace, Reno 2, Reno 3, Reno 3 Pro and Reno 3 yuan gas version, were released successively. The rhythm of the products is messy, and the direction of the products is not clear behind it. What's more fatal is that Reno 3 Pro, the latest flagship of Reno, actually uses the same snapdragon 765 5g processor as redmi K30, which leads to that there is no snapdragon 865 processor in Reno series, which is really called the flagship mobile phone product, which makes oppo face a big challenge in the next middle and high-end market.
Different from oppo, vivo has retained its flagship product line X series, which used to be the offline market. In addition, it has launched a new sub brand iqoo to focus on the online market and a new nex series to focus on the high-end market.
Among them, nex series encountered the same dilemma as oppo find X series. After the release of the first generation of mobile phones on June 12, 2018, nex series did not get much industry response and market sales. On September 16, 2019, nex series 3 5g products with Qualcomm snapdragon 855 plus processor were launched in a hurry. However, due to snapdragon 855 plus The processor is a transitional product, which is just a single-mode 5g chip. At the same time, the Qilin 990 adopted by mate 30 series released by Huawei is a real dual-mode chip, which makes nex 3 not gain a strong sense of industry presence again. After the production of Xiaolong 865 processor, vivo quickly changed to Xiaolong 865 processor, upgrading the former vivo nex 3 to vivo nex 3S, from single-mode 5g to dual-mode 5g. However, in addition to upgrading the processor, the nex 3S is not very different from the nex 3 in other areas such as appearance design, while the starting price is as high as 4998 yuan, which makes it difficult to become a mainstream product.
The new iqoo sub brand launched by vivo has the same problem of disordered product rhythm as the Reno series of oppo. Within one year, it released iqoo, iqoo Neo, iqoo Neo 855, iqoo Neo 855, iqoo Neo 855, iqoo pro, iqoo Pro 5g and other products without obvious separation and clear identification, resulting in iqoo Many products released by the brand earlier last year are still on sale, which means that these products generate a large inventory. However, the offline retail suspension caused by the pneumonia epidemic will further aggravate the inventory crisis of vivo, which creates a new obstacle for its next product iteration.
In the process of studying many industries, the author's favorite is the smart phone industry, because the smart phone industry has some of the best enterprises in China, and the competition between them represents the highest level of business competition in China.
After Xiaomi was in trouble, there was a lot of public opinion about Xiaomi. It was judged by the outside world that Xiaomi was in Huawei, oppo and vivo In front of the old competitors, Xiaomi may not recover, but Xiaomi has shown strong toughness. By adjusting its strategy, strengthening its hardware production and research and supply chain capabilities, opening up offline channels and overseas markets, and finally making up for Xiaomi's short business capabilities, Xiaomi successfully reconstructed in 2019 through the double brand strategy and returned to the stage center of China's smart phone industry.
However, the decline of traditional offline mobile channels, which oppo and vivo are highly dependent on, has led to the loss of potential energy in the past few years and began to actively seek change through the layout of online and high-end markets. Huawei's first mover advantage in the high-end market is no longer available, and it begins to face the siege of Xiaomi, oppo and vivo, which makes it under great pressure.
In the past, compared with Huawei, which has been established for 32 years, and ov, which has been established for more than 20 years (calculated from the step-by-step establishment), Xiaomi has a huge business capability weakness, which is actually just a disadvantage of time difference. Xiaomi's turning over means that Xiaomi has made up for the business weakness caused by the time difference in the past, started to have the same strength hardware foundation as the OV in his 20s and Huawei in his 30s, and started a new round of competition.
In the future, we believe that Huawei, oppo and vivo will not be at a loss in the face of the new industry competition pattern of Xiaomi's crazy counterattack, but will take new strategies to respond positively, which is likely to stimulate the greater potential and creativity of China's smart phone enterprises. Therefore, at present, the seemingly fierce Chinese smartphone industry is not a life and death competition. Instead, it may make the four manufacturers of huamiov more powerful, and ultimately benefit from the overall rise of the Chinese smartphone industry, while the hard hit is apple and Samsung, which are far away from the fierce competition in China. This is the result we hope to see.