In the face of the epidemic, people all over the world are of the same mind. Buy toilet paper and hand sanitizer to make ventilator. There are many similarities even in the state of isolation at home. Crazy game playing and window sill interaction are often amazing.
But at the same time, the world is facing a more brutal side. Factory shutdown, huge cost pressure, and nearly closed down industries are worrying. If in February we were still surprised by the cancellation of MWC caused by the outbreak, in March we knew that the postponement of the Olympic Games was only "as it is".
The epidemic can push small companies to the cliff, cancel the world exhibition, and affect the plans and financial statements of major companies. So, the epidemic will affect the pace of Apple's new products, which seems to be normal. Just our question is, will the epidemic affect the release of 5g iPhone this year?
Under the epidemic, iPhone also has problems
The impact of the epidemic on iPhone is mainly in supply and demand.
In the first half of the epidemic,Apple pointed out in its financial performance guidance for the second quarter (as of March)Due to the impact of the epidemic, the global iPhone supply is limited, and the demand of Chinese users for Apple's products is declining, apple is not expected to achieve its revenue target for this fiscal quarter.
The novel coronavirus pneumonia became a worldwide problem in the second half of the epidemic. At the same time, the decline of users' demand for Apple products in many regions of the world will become a new problem.
Nikkei Asia reviewIt's about delaying the launch of the new iPhone. Three people familiar with the matter said Apple had held internal discussions about the possibility of delaying the launch of new products. News from one side of the supply chain suggested that the real dilemma might delay Apple's new product launch, which was scheduled for September.
What's new in September? If you look at Apple's calendar year schedule, you will find that the new iPhone will be released in the second week of September, and will be available at the end of the month.
But this year's new iPhone faces many uncertainties. The epidemic in the supply chain location has affected the production process of iPhone 12 (it is expected that the new iPhone will be named this autumn). Apple employees are unable to fly back to China to complete the iterative design, the production line is unable to conduct short-term trial production, and the testing of hardware and software will be delayed.
After the outbreak in the supply chain area was controlled, the outbreak in the United States and other regions continued to limit Apple employees. They are unable to participate in the production process in person and make timely optimization.
Of course, the most worrying thing is people's purchasing power.
Current leaked information shows that iPhone 12 is a product with a larger update. This could be the first time it D equipped with three deep lenses iPhone; and its wide-angle lens will also be upgraded from six P to seven P,1/1.9
Most importantly, the iPhone 12 is likely to carry a 5g baseband chip based on Qualcomm's X60.
This may be Apple's biggest iPhone update in recent years, and Apple needs it to ignite consumers' desire to buy. byPeople familiar with the news provided by Nikkei Asia reviewIt means:
Regardless of supply-chain constraints, apple worries that the current situation will significantly reduce consumers' willingness to upgrade their phones, which could lead to a mediocre response from the first five G iPhone.
IPhone delays are becoming more likely
In February, the worst outbreak in China, mobile phone sales were greatly affected. According to the data of China Academy of communications, the total number of mobile phone shipments in February was 6.384 million,It fell 56% year on year.
This solid data also shows the difficulties the global mobile phone industry will face in the future. Under the epidemic, do you want to buy a mobile phone? Are you willing to spend nearly 10000 yuan on mobile phones?
In early March, the number of confirmed cases in the world was less than 100000. At that time, analysts said the launch of the new 5g iPhone this year could be delayed for a month.
Now, more than one million cases have been confirmed worldwide, and the situation will only be worse than originally expected.
▲ picture from:9to5Mac
There are parts suppliersThey have been informed to postpone the mass production plan for about two to three months.
A PCB relatedParts supplier representation "We have been advised to start mass shipments by the end of August to meet the release of Apple's new products, rather than shipping them in June as usual
The source said that the discussion on the release time of 5g iPhone is still in the initial stage, and the autumn release is not impossible.
But in the worst case, the release of the 5g iPhone could be delayed until 2021.
Considering the uncertainty of the global situation, Apple will make a final decision by may at the latest.
Dan ives, analyst at wedbushRecently, Apple's stock target price has also been lowered from $400 to $335. However, he still maintains Apple's "buy" rating and believes that once a new phone appears, we can see the "super cycle" of 5g iPhone. Even so, he has doubts about the launch of the new iPhone in the fall.
In a report, Dan Ives said mass production of the iPhone 12 is unlikely to begin before May, while design and logistics issues could make the fall launch a challenge. He said the launch of the new iPhone in September or October was "highly unlikely" and only about 10-15% in the autumn.
During the outbreak, the stagnation of 5G network construction in many countries also cast a shadow on the scheduled release of the new iPhone. After all, the construction of 5g network also has a great impact on the buyer's desire to change planes. Consumers may be hesitant because of the experience of real 5g and fake 5g.
Although Apple hasn't responded to the release of the new 5g iPhone this year, it is possible to extend the release time of the new 5g iPhone based on the known factors.
Supply chain recovered, but mobile phone shipments fell
Maybe there's too much discussion about this, and the supply chain related to the new iPhone can't sit still. Foxconn's head of investor relationsAlex Yang said in a private conference call hosted by Goldman SachsAt present, with a few months to go before the first trial assembly line in June, Hon Hai can still meet the deadline.
Under the situation of relatively stable epidemic situation in China, the problem of supply chain recovery efficiency seems to be to be solved immediately, which is good news for the industry.
But the biggest problem is the impact of the epidemic on people's consumption desire.Jeffrey Kvaal, analyst, Nomura SecuritiesHe said he would prefer not to see much potential demand fall relative to supply constraints.
If the drop in sales in February in China is a "wake-up call," then,Global data from strategy analyticsIt should allow more manufacturers to make more cautious choices.
In February, global smartphone shipments fell 38% year-on-year. This is the biggest decline since strategy began tracking statistics in 2003.
In a memo in March, cook also described the outbreak as "unprecedented" and "challenging". If Apple decides to postpone the launch of the new iPhone "for the first time", millions of production line jobs from the brand to the supply chain will be affected.
If we say that the manufacturing of an iPhone is the epitome of the global division of labor and cooperation, openness and win-win situation in the information and communication industry. As a well-known product in the world, iPhone sales in various countries can also observe the recovery of the global economy.
If Apple finally decides to postpone the release of the 5g iPhone, it seems to be a sign that people want to keep their wallets tight.
As Joe yen, an analyst at IDC, put it:
Big technology companies like apple are delaying plans for important new products, a question that may be more important than whether the supply chain can meet its schedule. This means that they really think that terminal demand is weak and the whole economy will not recover soon.
Title map fromCult of Mac。