Wen / WaiDao
Source: detour (ID: wddtalk)
In 2008, the financial crisis swept the world rapidly, Wall Street suffered a once-in-a-century crisis, the U.S. economy immediately entered a recession, and all industries ushered in a huge shock. Except for games, as of December 2008, the total number of online game players in the United States reached 86 million, an increase of 27% year-on-year, and in March, American players set a record of $1.8 billion in game spending.
Now a similar scenario is happening. In March 2020, American players spent $1.6 billion on games, the second highest market data in American game industry history.
epidemic or trigger economic turbulence, while the more depressed the economy, the more prosperous the entertainment industry.
On May 13, Tencent Holdings released its first quarter of 2020 results, the reporting period, Tencent's total revenue of 108.065 billion yuan, an increase of 26 percent, of which the bright is still the game business. Tencent's online game revenue reached 37.298 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 31 percent from the same period last year, equivalent to an average of 400 million yuan a day.
That's probably the best report from domestic internet companies during the epidemic, but it's also a reflection of the global downturn this yea
The game carries the growth of the Internet economy
Among the network economic revenue, e-commerce, advertising and games have always made the most outstanding contributions, which also correspond to the economic status of Internet giants. Now, because of the unknown impact of an epidemic on the global economy, the development trend of the three may change in 2020.
Looking at e-commerce first, offline shopping demand is forced to shift to online, which seems to make e-commerce business more active. However, during the epidemic period, the pressure caused by problems such as blocked logistics, different return time and supply chain disruption is also exerted on the e-commerce industry. Taking logistics as an example, according to the data released by the State Post Office, in January 2020, the business volume of national express service enterprises reached 3.78 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4%; in February, the business volume of national express service enterprises reached 6.55 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%.
The decrease of express delivery is a direct reflection of the decline of e-commerce business, and because of the epidemic, e-commerce platforms also lost most of their commissions and advertising revenue. According to dolphin think tank, the advertising and commission revenue of Alibaba's core e-commerce business lost 14 billion or 2.2 billion between the outbreaks.
American e-commerce suffered more. According to Amazon's financial report, in the first quarter, Amazon's revenue grew 26% year-on-year, but its profit fell 29% year-on-year to $2.5 billion. Amazon also expects operating profit of - 1.5 billion to $1.5 billion in the second quarter of fy2020, assuming costs associated with the new coronavirus will be around $4 billion.
Compared with the e-commerce industry, the damage of online advertising is more serious. During the virus epidemic, the number of users who spent time on the Internet increased dramatically worldwide, but this year's decline in advertising revenue has become a foregone conclusion as marketers cut budgets to cope with difficult times.
The Internet advertising agency said it surveyed more than 200 media publishers, technology providers and media platforms in the U.S. that rely on advertising (including members or non members of the Internet advertising agency). Respondents predicted that their online advertising revenue would drop by an average of 19% to 25% from March to June. 74% of them also believe that the new coronavirus will have a greater impact on us advertising spending than the 2008-09 financial crisis.
Whether it is the inevitable business loss during the epidemic or the consumption rebound after the epidemic, it means that it is not easy for the Internet economy to recover as usual. In this context, the game industry is the only one that has bucked the trend of growth, and its surging user time and gold absorption capacity have surprised other industries.
And on may 14th nintendo announced that its fourth-quarter profit soared 200% as demand for its Switch consoles soared, while its game animal sen reached a record 13.4 million sales in the first six weeks of its launch. Blizzard also outperformed this quarter, with call of duty: modern warfare and call of duty mobile games producing $452 million in revenue, up 31% from a year earlier.
As the largest game manufacturer in the world, Tencent naturally has to let go. After the announcement of the financial report, the market value of Tencent surpassed that of Alibaba.
Compared with e-commerce and online advertising, the market prospect of the game industry in 2020 is not only to protect it from the epidemic, but more importantly, the global economic situation changes, consumers in the entertainment industry catharsis, because of the epidemic situation, but more focused on games that can be played at any time. That's why capital markets are more bullish.
When the game becomes the global economy
There are many data to see if the global economy is booming, but the box office is an alternative indicator.
In 1930, the second year after the U.S. financial crisis, moviegoers reached their highest-ever record
Film practitioners say that when people want to escape from reality, they think of going to the cinema because it is a relatively cheap entertainment. However, at present, domestic cinemas have just returned to work until last week, and consumers' concerns about aggregation scenes have not been eliminated. The time for foreign cinemas to return to work is far away, so the reverse index of movie box office has directly failed.
Games or will
Of course, the current adverse growth of the game industry is largely due to the fact that the epidemic, an objective factor, limits users indoors, not affected by the economic crisis. But focusing on the game industry, some of the behavior characteristics of the game players fit the past people's psychology of going to the cinema, which may also be the expression of their emotional leakage in the face of the changes in the economic situation in the next year.
According to Google's insights and suggestions on the trend of the global game market, moderate and severe games are more popular with players, which is a relatively obvious change during the epidemic period. But after the number of such players increases, does the revenue of game manufacturers suddenly increase? Google said that the global IAP (in-game purchase revenue) expenditure remained stable, and has not shown a sharp growth trend at present. This shows that, for new players, the game subconscious is still a relatively cheap way of entertainment, do not need to spend too much.
Furthermore, from the game type, what is the most popular, the most out-of-circle game? "Animal Sen Friends ", and why" Animal Sen Friends "became popular style? Because the unique experience of this game just caters to the general psychology of the public under the crisis. Like David, the game anchor at the animal forest clu
So, whether it's watching movies or playing games, evasion is the consensus.
Data show that since the mid-March outbreak led to the closure of businesses, the United States has a cumulative total of 36.5 million applications for unemployment relief, which is close to the number of applications for unemployment relief during the 18 months of the previous recession. Stock market fusing, business collapse, unemployment coming
The epidemic is the turning point of the game industry, especially in China. In March 2018, after the reorganization of the State Administration of press, publication, radio, film and television, the examination and approval of the version number has been suspended, and for nine months, the original booming game industry has entered a cold winter. Even after the approval of the version number is resumed, the signals released by the policy supervision also make the game manufacturers walk on thin ice.
But now in the epidemic this force majeure action, the industry instead counter-trend growth. AppAnnie data shows that compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, the weekly average game downloads in March 2020 increased by 30%, more than 1 billion times. In China, South Korea and other markets, weekly downloads of mobile phone games were 35 percent year-on-year during the outbreak
Whether it is objective constraints or escapism, it means that the game industry has entered a new peak.
But building a big tree attracts wind, crisis and sharing.
First, opportunities for growth have intensified competition and industry differentiation. According to the forecast of the financial report of the game company, Xunyou technology expects the net profit of the first quarter of 2020 to decline by 65.50% - 72.40% year on year, and zhangqu technology expects the net profit of the first quarter of 2020 to decline by 30.39% - 57.16% year on year. Kaiying network announced that the net profit of the first quarter of 2020 will decline by 64% to 76% year on year.
Not all game companies can turn the tables against the wind. The rise of the current industry will accelerate the elimination of game manufacturers in the recession. Looking around the world, it seems that the major game companies under the opportunity are also producing gaps, especially Nintendo and Sony. The former burst out frequently, driving the company's profits soaring, while Sony? The epidemic had a negative impact on Sony's profit for the whole fiscal year, including 13.6 million Playstation 4 sales, down 24% year on year.
In the long run, it's worth noting whether the situation that Japan's two major game giants are competing for will change due to the epidemic.
Second, the more prosperous the game industry, the greater the public opinion crisis, in the domestic, the game has fallen from the momentum of rapid growth, almost become an industry
As of February 23, the black cat complaint platform showed that Tencent had 1719 complaints about games, and only 4 complaints had been completed. On the complaints platform, the number of complaints is up to 3355, while the resolution rate is only 2%.
In the current economic situation, all walks of life are tightening their belts, but the game companies are making a lot of money. This difference will actually make many parents feel more angry. They don't care whether the money is charged by their own children, and whether the game has positive value or not, the prejudice against the game may evolve into another more extreme emotional performance at any time.
Therefore, the game industry is far from happy.
The more depressed the economy, the more prosperous the entertainment industry, from a positive point of view, the prosperity of the entertainment industry does create a unique cultural value for society, and for the game, when it also becomes a global economic environment downward