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How big is the "water" of pinduoduo, which will deliver the strongest user growth financial report?

via:博客园     time:2020/5/23 8:47:29     readed:198


On may 22nd pinduoduo released its first-quarter results for fiscal year 2020 as at march 31st.

According to results, pinduoduo's first-quarter revenue was 6.541 billion yuan, up 44 percent from the same period last year, with a net loss of 3.1 net loss of 3.17 billion yuan, the same period last year a net loss of 1.379 billion yuan. The annual number of active buyers reached 628 million, a strong increase of 42.9 million in the single quarter, continue to maintain the high growth momentum of users.

There is no doubt that this is a very eye-catching report card. After the announcement of the financial report, pinduoduo's share price soared by 10%, but there are many hidden worries behind the capital carnival.

Logistics has become the biggest hidden danger of pinduoduo

In the first quarter, pinduoduo's loss expanded. According to the financial report, the net loss attributable to common shareholders under non GAAP in pinduoduo period was 3.170 billion yuan, compared with 1.379 billion yuan in the same period last year. More than the first quarter of 2020, the loss expanded. Pinduoduo explained that there are two main reasons for the loss expansion:

On the one hand, in order to help businesses on the platform during the epidemic, pinduoduo, on the basis of maintaining a zero commission, actively continued to reduce the marketing costs of businesses on the platform, and prioritized a large number of free flow resources to the most needed medical supplies for users, so in the case of double growth in turnover, revenue only achieved 44% growth. On the other hand, pinduoduo continues to increase its continued investment in direct subsidies for technology, products and commodities. Ten billion subsidies continue to online, constantly provide users with more cost-effective brand goods, this quarter, the platform's sales and marketing costs reached 7.297 billion yuan.

However, compared with the Q1 report card of 2020 issued by Jingdong group on May 15 (net income of 146.2 billion yuan, an increase of 20.7% year-on-year; net profit of 1.073 billion yuan, a decrease of 85.3% year-on-year), the most direct reason for the expansion of pinduoduo's loss may be that there is no self built logistics system. As the first quarter is at the peak of the domestic epidemic, the logistics service is basically suspended, and it is difficult for pinduoduo's goods to be delivered in time. At that time, Jingdong, with its "reliable" logistics distribution, harvested a large number of loyal fans.

Pinduoduo attaches great importance to the data of "number of active buyers in the past 12 months". According to the financial report of the fourth quarter of 2019, the annual number of active buyers (AAC) of pinduoduo is 585.2 million, while the monthly number of active users (MAU) of app is 482 million. However, in the first quarter of 2020, pinduoduo's independent monthly living growth fell abruptly from 52 million in the last quarter to 5 million in the current quarter, which was beyond the normal law. This means that the customer acquisition cost of pinduoduo has skyrocketed from 200 yuan to 1200 yuan, a sixfold increase. The future growth potential of pinduoduo may not be optimistic.

At the same time, we also see that the marketing expense rate of pinduoduo has reached about 111.6%. Considering the announced subsidy of 5 billion, pinduoduo is still burning money to replace users. However, the loss in this quarter expanded, breaking the convergence curve of the previous loss. Before the market expected that pinduoduo would achieve profitability this year, the expected rate of failure. The operating loss is 700 million more than the market expectation, and the loss rate has reached 67%. This is the biggest loss rate since the listing, which is significantly lower than the expectation. Compared with his income, this loss is particularly noticeable.

Pinduoduo's achievements may exist"Moisture"

The profit problem has always been a sword of Damocles hanging over pinduoduo. Originally, we have seen signs of improvement from the financial report of 19q4, but from 20q1, this problem appears again, which shows that pinduoduo's model and strategy may have some problems in the short term. Coincidentally, Alibaba and pinduoduo announced their financial statements on the same day, combined with Jingdong, which recently released the financial statements, we can have a good glimpse of the development of Chinese e-commerce in the first quarter, but the question also came.

Jingdong didn't disclose Gmv in this quarter, but in terms of revenue and the growth rate of active buyers, Gmv should have a double-digit growth year on year. Pinduoduo's Gmv in the past 12 months increased by 108% year on year, from which we can calculate that the Gmv in the last quarter increased by 99% year on year. Alibaba( BABA.US )In the last quarter, tmall's physical Gmv increased by 10% year-on-year; in terms of revenue and EBITA growth, the Gmv of the entire Taoxi e-commerce may be flat or slightly increased in the first quarter.

According to the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic survey, the e-commerce transactions in the first quarter of 2020 were 7 trillion and 80 billion yuan, down 10.4% from the same period last year, the first time since the launch of the survey. Among them, the trading volume of commodity and service e-commerce is 6.83 trillion yuan, down by 0.86 trillion yuan or 11.2% year-on-year, down 17.8 percentage points compared with the growth rate in 2019.

Combined with the earlier data disclosed by the State Administration of post, in the first quarter of 2020, the volume of national express delivery orders only increased by 3% year-on-year, and the revenue of express delivery declined slightly year-on-year. From the three express companies of Zhongtong, Shentong and Yunda, the revenue has declined, which also proves that the data is true. The three giants of e-commerce together account for nearly 90% of the total number of express packages in China. Now Gmv is growing well in the first quarter, which certainly has some problems.

JD has self built logistics, and it is understandable that 20% of the revenue growth during the epidemic period. In the fourth quarter of the financial report, JD gave a 10% revenue growth guidance. Alibaba has been affected by the epidemic to a certain extent. Although it has a self built logistics system, its volume is too large, and it must also be affected. It is reasonable for the growth rate of Gmv to decline to 10%. There must be demons in case of abnormality. Do you see the problem? That's the abnormal growth rate of pinduoduo.

Imagine that the overall industry scale is in a declining stage, and pinduoduo's three most important logistics partners are showing a downward trend. In the first quarter, the revenue of Zhongtong is 3.916 billion yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year; in the first quarter, the revenue of Shentong is 3.573 billion yuan, down 20.72% year-on-year; in the first quarter, the revenue of Yunda is 5.625 billion yuan, down 15.86% year-on-year. How did pinduoduo realize the counter trend growth? The only explanation is the existence of water?

The reality of pinduoduoGMVHow much is it?

Pinduoduo disclosed an important data after the announcement of the financial report, that is, since May, the number of daily average in transit logistics packages on the platform has exceeded 65 million, up 30% from March this year. Based on this data, the daily average package volume in March is about 45.5 million. According to the previous financial report of 2019 released by pinduoduo, pinduoduo generated a total of 19.7 billion order packages, with an average daily order package of 54 million. In 2018, 11.1 billion order packages were generated, with an average daily order package of 30.4 million.

Based on the analysis of the daily average order package in 2019 and 2018, we can roughly calculate that the daily average order package volume of Q1 in 2019 is 42.2 million, and the total order package volume of Q1 in 2019 is about 3.8 billion. Now due to the impact of the epidemic, March may be the month with the largest number of Q1 packages in 2020. The intuitive experience also tells us that the express delivery is almost closed in February, and many online stores do not open, or do not deliver goods after opening. That is to say, the overall order package volume of pinduoduo in the first quarter not only failed to achieve year-on-year growth, but may decline significantly.

Pinduoduo stressed in the conference call of four seasons report 2019 that the decline of timeliness of logistics will affect consumers' purchase intention. David Liu, vice president of pinduoduo strategy, further confirmed this conclusion in the financial report conference call. "In the first quarter, the company continued to invest in marketing, providing benefits for consumers and promotion for businesses. From the end of February to the beginning of March, the domestic epidemic began to be gradually controlled, and the consumer demand also recovered and released rapidly. In addition, the business promotion and logistics capacity recovered. By the middle of March, the company's daily order volume reached 50 million. ".

In other words, pinduoduo's order volume by mid March is far below the 2019 average. Of course, the average consumption of pinduoduo's active buyers increased by 47% in the first quarter. We can understand that the customer unit price of pinduoduo's single package increased by 47%. At this time, problems also arise. Under the most ideal situation (the order did not decline), pinduoduo's Gmv can only achieve 47% growth at most. If the order has a significant decline, pinduoduo's Gmv can only achieve 47% growth The growth rate may be far less than this figure, but the figure that the financial report tells us is 99%. The gap behind this is worth pondering.

The most important thing in pinduoduo's quarterly financial report is two figures. One is Gmv in the past 12 months, and the other is the number of active buyers in the past 12 months. This is the practice of pinduoduo's financial report. Each quarter only disclose the total Gmv of the past four quarters, so it seems that the overall growth rate will be higher. It's not easy to know how to spell out Gmv for a single quarter.

Due to pinduoduo's "pinduoduo" mode, countless customers' orders will be refunded every day due to "not assembled", but this part of the revenue is often included in Gmv. This gives us a new question: how much of pinduoduo's quarterly Gmv can bring real revenue? We found a new key figure: Quarterly Commission revenue.

As the platform Commission of pinduoduo is fixed at 0.6%, we can use the Commission revenue of each quarter to push out the real Gmv of pinduoduo after deducting return or unpaid orders every quarter. From 19q1 to 20q1, the figures are: 99.5 billion yuan, 137.2 billion yuan, 133.6 billion yuan, 184.3 billion yuan and 174.6 billion yuan respectively.

To sum up, 19 Q1 pinduoduo's Gmv was 152 billion yuan, up 99% year-on-year in this quarter, so 20 Q1's Gmv was 302.5 billion yuan, which means that the proportion of real Gmv was only 57.7%. If we calculate according to the real Gmv data of 174.6 billion yuan, all the figures seem to be basically reasonable.

Of course, pinduoduo, an e-commerce platform that has changed China's retail market, is still growing at a high speed, but the consequences of Ruixing's fraud have already sounded a wake-up call to Zhongwei shares listed in the US.

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