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As many as 8.7 million people may be infected in the United States in March, more than 80% of them are undiagnosed, according to a new study

via:cnBeta.COM     time:2020/6/24 8:30:42     readed:93

According to foreign media reports, the latest coronavirus epidemic shows that more people are infected with the new coronavirus than ever before, just when some countries, including the United States, began to loosen the blockade measures. In the past few days, the number of confirmed cases of covid-19 in several states in the United States has surged, and it has begun to reopen, reaching a new record of one-day New Crown diagnosis. Although less than 2.4 million new crown confirmed cases were officially announced in the United States as of the time of publication,But a new study suggests that as many as 8.7 million Americans could be infected in March alone. More than 80% have never been diagnosed.


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Numerous reports provide evidence that the virus reached Europe and the United States long before the first people were diagnosed. A number of patients in countries such as France, Italy and the United States may have contracted COVID-19. as early as the end of 2019 The researchers' analysis of wastewater samples suggests the new coronavirus may have spread in northern Italy last December. American Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) revealed a few weeks ago that community transmission in the United States may have begun as early as January. The first U.S. new crown death occurred in early February, weeks before previous estimates claimed.

A team from Pennsylvania State University, Montana State University and Cornell University now say the virus was spreading rapidly in March, but most people went to see doctors to treat flu like diseases. Hospitals were unable to confirm the infection while the trump administration was still playing down the risk of the disease due to a lack of testing.

According to the researchers, the findings support the fact that more than 8.7 million cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred in the United States in March and it is estimated that more than 80 per cent of these cases remain unconfirmed as the epidemic spreads rapidly. According to CNN reports, only about 100,000 cases were officially confirmed during March. Trump did not even declare the US state of emergency until March 13.

Researchers used influenza-like disease data CDC collected from states. "We found that during the COVID-19 epidemic, there was a significant abnormal surge in outpatients with influenza-like diseases (ILI), which was associated with the progression of the epidemic in several states ," Justin Silverman and colleagues wrote. "The proliferation of non-influenza ILI outpatients is much larger than the number of confirmed cases per state, providing evidence that a large number of potentially symptomatic COVID-19 cases remain undetected ."

They also said:

In addition to flu data, the researchers used mathematical models that take into account the details of a state's population, annual flu epidemic statistics, and actual data for coronavirus testing. And they took into account the fact that once it became clear that the United States itself was dealing with a massive COVID-19 epidemic, some people began to avoid going to hospitals.

"If one-third of those infected with sars-cov-2 in the United States seek treatment, this surge in Ili will correspond to more than 8.7 million new sars-cov-2 infections in the United States in the three weeks from March 8 to March 28, 2020," the researchers wrote. It is worth noting that this is only an estimate by the researchers, not an actual figure.

By the time of publication, the total number of confirmed cases of covid-19 in the world had exceeded 9.18 million, and the number of deaths had exceeded 474000. Among them, there are more than 2.34 million confirmed cases and more than 121000 deaths in the United States.

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