According to a survey data from Matthias Schmidt, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe has reached 500000 from January to July this year, and the annual sales volume may exceed 1 million.
On the contrary, domestic sales of new energy vehicles fell 32.8% to 486000 from January to July this year. Once again, we will achieve the goal of anti surpassing China.
German economic weekly reported,
As the world's largest new energy vehicle market, how to maintain the first mover advantage and how to smoothly pass the era of no subsidy is imminent.
Subsidy of real gold and silver
The maximum compensation for a car is 85000 yuan
Wang Qing, deputy director of the market economy Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, once said that the subsidies on new energy vehicles were an important reason for the sales contrast between the two countries.
In China, before 2013, vehicles with a driving range of more than 250 km can get 140000 yuan per vehicle by comprehensive national subsidy and local subsidy; now, a pure electric vehicle can only get 30000 yuan.
Under the high subsidy, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles increased rapidly from less than 10000 to 1206000 from 2012 to 2019, with an increase of 100 times. However, since subsidies fell sharply last year, sales of new energy vehicles in China have begun to decline. From July 2019, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles has been declining for 12 consecutive months.
While domestic subsidies for new energy vehicles have declined sharply, European countries have begun to give subsidies to new energy vehicles in full swing.
According to the venture States, 26 of the 27 EU member states have subsidy policies for electric vehicles.
Latest subsidy policies in European countries (data source: ACEA)
For example, according to Germany's latest subsidy policy, for pure electric vehicles with a price of 40000 euro or less, a subsidy of 9000 euro will be given; if more than 40000 euro, a subsidy of 7500 euro will be given; for pure electric vehicles that have not received the subsidy, they will also be subsidized with a subsidy of 5000 euro, and the validity period of the subsidy will be extended from the end of 2020 to the end of 2025.
In addition to government subsidies, consumers of electric vehicles can also get local subsidies of up to 1500 euros, depending on the situation of German cities.Comprehensive state subsidies and land subsidies, a car can get up to 85000 yuan, almost three times the domestic.
France will extend the subsidy for new energy vehicles to 2022, with the budget increased from 260 million euro last year to 400 million euro this year, and the maximum subsidy for new energy vehicles with vehicle price lower than 45000 euro will be 6000 euro per vehicle.
In addition, in addition to real gold and silver subsidies, European countries have also increased investment in new energy vehicles.
Central European and European investments in electric vehicles (source: T),2017-2019
According to TIn 2019, China's total investment will shrink to 17.1 billion euro, while that in Europe will reach a record 60 billion euro, equivalent to 467.1 billion yuan, nearly 20 times higher than before.
Among them, Germany alone accounted for 40 billion euro of investment, mainly Volkswagen's factories in zweiko and Emden, and Tesla's factories in Berlin. The Czech Republic received 6.6 billion euros, which is also due to the Volkswagen Group. The Czech Republic is followed by Italy, France, Sweden, the United Kingdom and so on.
Obviously, Germany has become the leader and center of the whole European electric vehicle industry. It is not only the car companies and battery companies in the country, but also the German government's financial and policy support for electric vehicles, which has become the key to the soaring sales of electric vehicles in Germany and even in Europe.
Sales data of new energy vehicles in Europe in the first half of 2020 (source clean technica)
According to the statistics of ACEA, in the first half of this year, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, the top three countries in Europe, accounted for 76% of the total sales of electric vehicles in Europe.
Among them, Germany has sold 130000 vehicles in total, becoming the champion of new energy vehicle sales in Europe with absolute advantage, which is even higher than the result of 108800 vehicles in Germany last year.
The investment is so huge that Germany has a clear goal. According to Germany
In order to achieve this goal, in addition to increasing subsidies for new energy vehicles, the German government also gives new energy vehicle buyers a certain period of time free of vehicle tax, free parking and other industrial policy support.
In addition, in the research and development of battery technology for core components of electric vehicles, Germany also plans to provide 1 billion euro to support European battery R & D and production by 2022, hoping to take advantage of this to fight against Asian battery manufacturers.
With the support of money and talents from European countries, European enterprises that seem to be backward in electrification have started the catch-up mode.
766 yuan per gram of carbon dioxide
Can car companies stand up to punishment?
The increasingly stringent carbon emission standards are the external driving force for Europe to accelerate its transition to electrification.
In 2009, the European Union passed a bill, requiring that the average carbon dioxide emission of newly registered passenger cars within the EU should not exceed 130g / km by 2015 and 95g / km by 2021; meanwhile, the buffer period from 2012 to 2014 should be set, and the compliance rate of new vehicles in that year should reach 65%, 75% and 80% respectively.
According to the calculation, the CO2 emission of 95g / km can only be achieved by burning 3.24l gasoline per 100km. For comparison, Japan's carbon emission requirements are within 122g / km in 2020 and 97G / km in 2025 in the United States. China's goal in 2020 is to reach 5L gasoline / 100km.
In addition, according to a more radical bill passed by the European Council last year, by 2030, the average carbon dioxide emissions of passenger cars sold by various manufacturers in Europe will be reduced by 37.5% to 59.375g/km on the basis of 95g / km in 2021, corresponding to 2.55l fuel consumption per 100 km.
According to the rough statistics of Chuangye state, for example, less than 2% of BBA fuel vehicles currently on sale meet this emission standard.This means that companies that fail to meet the stringent carbon emission standards will face huge fines.
According to EU regulations, the average carbon emission of all new cars in 2021 should meet 95g / km. For every gram exceeding, 95 euro will be fined, about 766 yuan.
According to analysts at evercore ISI, an investment bank,If the average carbon dioxide emissions per vehicle in 2021 are the same as that in 2018, the major automobile manufacturers will face a total fine of 33 billion euro.Among them, Volkswagen will face fines of more than 9.1 billion euro, followed by PSA, Renault, FCA and Daimler.
In addition to the huge losses caused by fines, car companies are more worried about the negative impact of substandard emissions on brands.
Industry analysts have said so to Hansong. According to public media reports, since the emission gate incident broke out in 2015, the public has paid more than 230 billion yuan in fines.
In order to meet the EU emission standards, car companies including Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW and so on have started to accelerate the pace of the transition to electric.
And in March, Volkswagen unveiled the world's first ID.4. of pure electric vehicles Taking this as a starting point, eight new energy vehicles, including Volkswagen ID.3、 Porsche Taycan、 Golf EV, are launched around the world.
Daimler named the electric project directly
Even BMW, which has always been hesitant, announced that it would realize the layout of 25 new energy vehicles by 2023, two years ahead of its previous plan.
Autocar, the British automotive media, has compiled 132 models of 45 different brands of new cars planned to be sold in Europe in 2020. Compared with last year, only 60 new energy vehicles were on sale in the European market.
With high subsidies and more choices of models, consumers begin to focus more on new energy vehicles.
In August this year, the Chinese Consulate General in Munich quoted the German business daily as saying that in July, the German government received nearly two applications for subsidies to purchase electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles. By the end of July, the number had reached nearly 70000, up 79% year on year.
According to marklines, a data company, under the policy stimulus, the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles in Europe will exceed 1 million in 2021, and the market share will increase to nearly 7%; it is estimated that by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach 4.567 million, and the market share will increase to about 28%.
However, according to Wang Binggang, leader of the national new energy vehicle innovation project expert group, even if the sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe exceeds that in China, there is no need to be surprised. He believes that this will have an incentive effect on promoting China's new energy vehicle industry.
With the encouragement of the government, the attitude towards the development of new energy vehicles in Europe has changed from a wait-and-see to a positive one, which is beneficial to the development of new energy vehicles in the world. At the same time, in recent years, China has vigorously developed new energy vehicles under the support of policies. The technology is immature to mature, and consumers have gradually accepted new energy vehicles.
Facing the counter attack of European market, is there any chance for China to reverse the trend?
In an interview with Chuangye bang, the Secretary General of the Federation of passengers said that even if Europe surpasses the number of new energy vehicles in China this year, China will still lead the world in the development of new energy vehicles in the future with the launch of the double points policy next year.
First of all, since July this year, China's new energy vehicles have gradually come out of the crisis.
According to the data from the Travel Association, 86000 new energy vehicles were sold in July, up 18.2% month on month and 181.1% year-on-year. In August, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has exceeded 100000.
Secondly, the adjustment of China's automobile market has also achieved initial results, and high-end new energy has become the general trend.
According to the statistics of Wilson monitoring data, in the first half of 2019, the core competition circle of new energy is concentrated in the A-class car market with less than 200000 yuan, and by the first half of 2020, the core competition circle has turned to the B-class and C-class car market with more than 250000 yuan.
The sales of high-end brands are catching up, which to some extent represents that China's new energy market is beginning to mature.
Third, the construction of supporting infrastructure in the new energy industry has also given the Chinese market an opportunity to regain the first place in the global new energy market.
As of July 2020, the number of charging piles in China is 1.341 million, an increase of 27.6% over the same period of last year. The ratio of charging piles not equipped with construction is 31.1%. Although there is a certain distance from the 1:1 vehicle pile ratio required by the state, the number will rise rapidly under the new infrastructure construction.
Compared with China, the European market has a larger gap in the matching rate of charging piles. At present, the number of electric vehicle public charging piles in Europe is less than 200000. According to the forecast, the number of electric vehicles in Europe will increase rapidly to 44 million by 2030, and the demand for supporting charging piles will reach 15 times of today's, that is, 3 million.
Of course, in addition to the efforts of enterprises and the market, the government should also provide policy support in line with the current development of China's new energy vehicle market in the growing period.
Fan Yongjun, Secretary General of Chengdu new energy automobile industry promotion and Application Promotion Association, said that at present, domestic vehicles, parts, charging facilities and power exchange facilities can not be used because of the lack of standard system. Not only is there no convenience to speak of, but also the cost is very difficult to reduce, and the vehicle price will remain high.
He suggested that local governments should avoid introducing policies with local protection color that are not conducive to industry competition, and at the same time, they should promote industry merger and reorganization to realize resource integration.
Write it at the end
In 2019, while China's subsidies are on the decline, Europe continues to raise the subsidy standard, surpassing China to win the championship in only half a year. It can be said that it is a world champion created by heavy money, just like China at that time.
Subsidies are essential for a country to guide the growth of a new industry, but a decline is inevitable. Subsidies in the European market are only temporary measures for the current epidemic situation.
As Cao Dewang, chairman of Fuyao Glass, said,