Tesla held on September 22, local time
Mr. musk said Tesla is confident it will produce an electric car for only $25000 (about 170000 yuan) in the next three years, which will be the cheapest Tesla car in history.
It is worth noting that these five innovative technologies, including the new
Musk said the new battery, already in production at a factory, would take a year to reach 10 gigawatt hours of capacity.
In addition, as early as April, Musk said this year's battery day was
It is reported that this battery is a lithium ion battery, which was produced by Ningde era and Tesla, and can make electric vehicles travel for 1 million miles. Musk tweeted that he would be
But until the end of the battery day, investors were looking forward
Sales grew by 50% in 2019 are expected to grow 30-40% this yea
Tesla CEO Musk
Musk said, Tesla has achieved mass production on Model S、3、X、Y models. 2019, Tesla's car shipments grew by 50 percent, In a very difficult environment, It is still possible to grow by 30 to 40 per cent by 2020. Tesla shipped 367500 last year, According to Musk's predictions, We'll ship 477500 to 514500 this year, Roughly in line with Tesla previously announced this year's annual shipment expected level of 500000.
Musk also mentioned that Tesla will release a Autopilot system beta with fully automatic driving options in the next month or so. An average accident rate in the autopilot industry is 2.1 per 1 million miles, and a Autopilot, accident rate of 0.3 per million miles if Tesla is enabled.
For the previously released cybertruck, musk said it had received more than 600000 orders and expected sales of 250000 to 300000 vehicles a year.
The future battery demand will reach 10 TWH
With the continuous growth of Tesla automobile sales, the demand for batteries is also growing rapidly. According to the forecast, Tesla's battery demand will reach 10twh (10000gwh), including 3500gwh compact and medium-sized vehicles; 900gwh luxury cars and SUVs; 1100gwh pickups; 3000gwh semi; 1500gwh small cars and robotaxi.
Musk said the current scale of battery production is not fast enough, production is very small. In order for electric vehicles to continue to grow faster than gasoline-powered cars, costs need to be reduced, so Tesla plans to reduce production costs per kilowatt-hour through larger cylindrical batteries.
Five innovative technologies
Tesla Battery Technology Day released five innovative technologies, including: battery design, battery factory, cathode material, negative material, vehicle battery integration.
1. Battery design: electrodeless ear battery, 46800 battery, cost reduced by 14%
Musk said that in the past, the company has completed an innovation with its partners, that is, the 2008 18650 upgrade to 2017 21700, energy density increased by 50 percent. However, in the future, Tesla will adopt a new endless ear battery.
In the original battery structure, the current must flow through the electrode ear to reach the connector outside the cell. However, when the current must flow all the way along the cathode or anode to the electrode ear and out of the cell, the resistance will also increase with the increase of distance. In addition, the cost is increased because the polar ear is an additional part. The use of an electrode free ear cell simplifies the manufacturing process and reduces resistance.
Figure: electrodeless ear battery
In addition to the electrodeless ear batteries, Tesla will also use 46800 batteries. Larger cylindrical batteries can reduce costs, and the biggest challenge is fast charging. The length of the new battery is 80mm, the diameter is 46mm, the energy is increased by 5 times, and the endurance is increased by 16%. The mass production site is in Fremont, California.
Figure: 46800 battery performance
According to reports, the new battery design can reduce the cost by 14%.
Figure ▲: Larger cylindrical cells reduce costs
Figure: with 46800 battery, the cost can be reduced by 14%
2. Battery Plant: Dry Electrodes, Process Optimization, Capacity Target ,18% Cost Reduction
In the production process of battery factory, Tesla adopts the wet electrode process, and the solvent can be recycled. However, musk said that in the future, Tesla will also adopt the dry electrode process, which can simplify the process. At present, Tesla has carried out a large number of experiments, and finally can achieve practical application. But it is not mature enough to expand production capacity.
In order to maximize the possibility of simplifying the process, reduce capacity investment. Tesla aims to accommodate 1 TWh of capacity in 150 GWh of plant space in the future, reducing investment per GWh capacity by 75 percent.
Figure: reduced investment in production capacity
In terms of production process optimization, continuous processing output is the goal of Tesla battery plant, which can maximize efficiency and maximize output. 1 assembly line to achieve 20 Gwh, single line output increased 7 times.
In terms of capacity target, Tesla plans to reach 100GWh capacity in 2022 and 3twh capacity in 2030. Among them, 100GWh in 2022 is completely self-produced capacity in addition to cooperation with suppliers.
▲ Chart: Capacity Target
Musk said that technological innovation in the battery factory could reduce costs by 18%.
Figure: cost can be reduced by 18%
3. Anode material: silicon anode, cost reduced by 5%
In the innovation of negative electrode materials, Musk said that silicon is very important, the earth has a lot of resources, energy storage performance is better. People do not want to use silicon because his expansion will react with the diaphragm to form a gel.
In this regard, Tesla has adopted new materials to restrain silicon expansion, and coating silicon with film covering materials can increase the driving range by 20% after treatment of raw materials.
Figure ▲: Tesla silicon material treatment
According to musk, Tesla has a low cost of silicon materials for batteries, which can reach $1.2/kwh.
Figure: Tesla silicon material cost
Thanks to the technological innovation of anode materials, the cost can be reduced by 5%.
4. Positive material: no cobalt, cost reduction 12%
for cathode (i.e. cathode) materials, the senior vice president of tesla power systems, energy, and engineering Andrew Baglino said that material is second only to oxygen in abundance. Cathode (Cathodes) is like a bookshelf, lithium is a book body. tesla will eliminate cobalt from the cathode and rely on nickel.
Cost splitting of cathode materials
The first step is to use iron in the cathode material, which has a good cycle life. It is applied to some passenger cars, including a new car, with the main cost performance ratio;
The second step is nickel manganese materials, such as 2 / 3 nickel and 1 / 3 manganese, used in major passenger cars and energy storage; the third step is to use high nickel in absolute sense for pickup trucks and trucks.
In the cybertruck / semi, Tesla will use 100% nickel support, while others will use a combination of nickel and other chemicals, musk said. This ensures that mass production is possible. Musk again reiterated that he wanted more people to mine nickel.
in addition, tesla will set up a cathode material factory in the united states and will set up a lithium conversion factory there. because can reduce 80% transportation cost.
Musk stressed that lithium is a widely available resource and one of the most common resources on earth. Tesla has won a 10, 000 acre claim to a soil containing lithium in the state of Nevada. Nevada alone is enough to power all vehicles in the United States.
Figure ▲: Establishment of cathode material plants in North America
In addition, Tesla also plans to layout upstream resources and battery recycling to reduce costs.
Tesla will start battery recycling at a plant in Nevada. At present, Tesla and other companies rely on third-party providers to provide this recycling service. The long-term plan will enable Tesla to make new batteries from old batteries, thus improving the environmental impact.
The innovation in cathode material technology, self built positive material factory and battery material recycling can reduce the cost by 12%.
Figure: cost split of cathode materials
5. Battery Vehicle Integration :7% Cost Reduction
In the future, it will promote the design of automobile body integrated structure. At the same time, the pack structure needs to be optimized. In the design of the new battery pack, a better way of bonding makes the structure more compact.
▲ Chart: pack Structure Optimization
Figure: integrated design of body battery
Musk said the battery will be built directly into the car structure, the innovation is inspired by the aircraft wing on the fuel tank. Structural batteries will reduce the overall weight of the vehicle. This will reduce the total number of parts required (370 spare parts) and speed up production. A better combination of batteries and body weight loss of 10, may bring 14% increase in life. This link can reduce the cost by 7.
Musk said,If these five parts of innovation can be realized, the endurance capacity will be increased by 54%, the cost will be reduced by 56%, and the investment in super factory will be reduced by 69%. It will take 12-18 months to achieve some of the goals and about three years to achieve them fully.
Based on this, Mask said, Mask said that about three years later, Tesla was confident in making a fully automatic driving car with a price of $25 thousand.
But musk also said,Part of the technology presented at the event was
These technologies do work, but they are still out of mass production, and Tesla has set up a pilot plant in California to solve the problems it still faces,