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How many streets has Tesla thrown away from Chinese car making forces?

via:博客园     time:2020/9/25 18:49:04     readed:77


Wen / Lu Jiu finance and Economics

It can be said that Tesla has achieved preliminary closed-loop in the upstream and downstream industrial chain of new energy vehicles. Especially in the future exploration of battery technology, Tesla has shaken off several new forces of domestic car making.

At the Tesla battery day held on September 23, Beijing time, a new 4680 battery was officially released. Compared with the existing Tesla 2170 battery, the overall energy density of the 4680 battery is increased by 5 times, the power is increased by 6 times, the driving range can be increased by 16%, and the cost per kWh is reduced by 14%.

As a pathfinder of new energy vehicles, Tesla has been exploring the core technologies of batteries and the layout of software operating system several years ahead of schedule, which makes Tesla the most beautiful player on the new energy vehicle track in the world.

So what is the gap between Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and Weima, which has just received 10 billion yuan of financing, compared with Tesla in the core technology of new energy vehicles?

New force of domestic car making

There is generally no battery core technology

As the core component of new energy vehicles, the performance and quality of electric batteries largely determine the competitiveness of new energy vehicles. Because Tesla is a pioneer of new energy vehicles, it was the first to study power batteries.

Previously, Tesla used 18650 batteries produced by Panasonic. After the model 3 was officially put into operation, the new 21700 battery replaced the 18650 as a new cell. The newly released 4680 battery is already in production and will take a year to reach 10 gigawatt hours of capacity. It can be said that Tesla brought the power battery line.

In contrast, Weilai, ideality and Xiaopeng, which are the domestic automobile manufacturing forces, have been in mass production, but their core components are all batteries in the supply chain of Ningde era. In terms of comprehensive user experience, especially battery life, domestic Internet car manufacturers have not come up with a model that can compete with model 3 and model X.

A new energy vehicle expert's view on this is: when Tesla makes new energy vehicles, the industry is still a blank area. Since Tesla wants to build cars, it has to solve all the problems in the supply chain, including batteries.

But the new forces of domestic car making are different. When they started to build cars, the industry has changed a lot. Domestic battery manufacturers such as Ningde times have risen in an all-round way, and the batteries are sufficient to support the production capacity of Weilai, ideality and Xiaopeng. As the battery industry chain has been relatively mature, these manufacturers do not need to use limited funds to study battery technology. After all, the technology gap between Ningde era and Tesla battery is not big.

This phenomenon, similar to the rise of smart phones, multi touch technology and other core technologies. Although, domestic mobile phone manufacturers, with the help of Android, continue to optimize the system's use of fluency and finger touch screen and other key technologies. However, because Apple is the ancestor of multi touch technology, apple mobile phone can be several years ahead of all other Android phones in terms of the fluency of the overall mobile phone system in the early stage.

Fortunately, in terms of software operating system, China's major new forces are developing their own auto operating systems. Although the amount of investment and the level of R & D progress are different, after all, the independence of the system is in. In the future, the software operating system of new energy vehicles will also be provided by independent third-party companies such as Google and Baidu, and traditional automobile manufacturers such as Volkswagen and BMW will be independently developed. At present, whether Tesla is in the lead or not, and whether it can make profits by paying for software like apple in the future, is still unknown.

Tesla for new energy vehicles

As apple is to smartphones

This time, Tesla's new 4680 battery is just optimizing the lithium battery process, manufacturing and system, which has brought about a reduction in cost and an increase in energy density and endurance. Although what Tesla has brought out this time is not groundbreaking and does not exceed the R & D scope of Ningde era, LG and other manufacturers, as a complete automobile factory, it will continue to maintain the leading position in the latest generation of battery technology, and will gain the first mover advantage in the future industry chain competition.

At present, among the new forces of domestic car making, only Weilai is trying to strip away the ownership of vehicle and battery assets. On August 18 this year, Wuhan Weineng battery assets company, jointly invested by Ningde times, Hubei ketou, Guotai Junan and Weilai, was registered and established. Ningde times obtained its 25% equity and board seats. In addition, Weilai has established 528 Mu advanced manufacturing technology center in Nanjing, has an ESS energy storage system production line, and has invested in Suzhou Zhengli New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. in Changshu, engaged in the system research and development, trial production, production and sales of automobile lithium battery pack. At this stage, the ideal car is intended to adopt the mode of increasing range, which is equivalent to the hybrid of oil and electricity, avoiding the hard bone of battery technology research and development. In the early stage, Xiaopeng automobile mainly imitated the battery technology of Tesla, trying to explore a technical route of its own, which has gone through several stages from cylinder, soft package to square shell. But in the end, like Weilai enterprise, it had to join the camp of Ningde era.

Battery suppliers such as Ningde times are equivalent to TSMC or SMIC, MediaTek and Qualcomm in the chip industry. From now to the future, short-term, medium-term and long-term, the new forces of domestic car making rely on it very much.

At present, the situation of new energy automobile industry is somewhat similar to that of smart phones. Tesla is like apple mobile phone. Apple mobile phone has a self-developed A14 chip, a variety of touch screen patents, user experience is relatively good, but also has a strong OEM system like Foxconn. Apple alone accounts for 90% of the profits in the smartphone industry chain.

And Weilai, ideal, Xiaopeng and Weima are just like the manufacturers of various Android machines. Important components of smart phones, such as chips, cameras, printed circuit boards, etc., can be purchased. They are a mobile phone manufacturer in name, but they are only a mobile phone assembly manufacturer in essence. After they have their own brand, they assemble various spare parts. Just like in the initial stage of domestic smart phones around 2010, simply piling up hardware materials does not grasp the core of smart phones.

The status of battery technology in the new energy vehicle industry chain is just like the role of chip in the mobile phone industry chain. Because Apple has its own A14 chip, which realizes the highest process and minimum process of 5nm, Apple has been ahead of other Android mobile phone manufacturers in the core component of mobile phone processor. Although Samsung and Huawei also have their own independent chip design, but they are both the leaders of the catch-up camp. Other domestic Android mobile phone manufacturers without independent chip research and design capabilities will either die or get only a small share.

The new force of domestic car making generally does not have its own battery core technology. This phenomenon is like that domestic mobile phone manufacturers other than Huawei do not have their own chips. After the embarrassment, perhaps after many years, will reflect more obvious!

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