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Tesla Model y has to wait for a quarter to pick up the car after the price reduction, and the analysis says that there is a high probability that the price will be reduced

via:CnBeta     time:2021/1/7 21:09:58     readed:126

Tesla Model y dropped by 165100 yuan at the highest. As soon as the news was released, Tesla stores were crowded. On January 6, it was only six days since the official launch. According to the official website of Tesla China, the expected delivery date of model y long life version has been changed to the second quarter of 2021, that is, one more quarter. According to the Research Report of several securities companies, model y is likely to reduce its price substantially. Continue to wait and see, or take advantage of the tightening green card policy in Shanghai and other big cities?

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In 2020, Tesla reduced the price of domestic model 3 five times in total, and every time after the price reduction, it will usher in the scene of full market. On New Year's day this year, the price of the electric SUV model y, which was delivered for the first time, dropped again. The price of the long-range version was 339900 yuan, down 148100 yuan, the same as that of the high-performance version of the electric car model 3. Model y high-performance version is straight down 165100 yuan, 369900 yuan.

At this time, if the camera is aimed at the old owners of Tesla and the new car owners who just picked up the car, is it "cut leeks" or "really fragrant" this time?

特斯拉热闹不减,蔚来客流正常,小鹏冷清依旧

Tesla is still busy, Weilai's passenger flow is normal, and Xiaopeng is still lonely. Tuyuan / IT times

01

Waiting for "one quarter" to pick up the car

New tiktok huge crowds of people in the Shanghai store in the new year's day are enough to explain the allure of official decline. On January 5, a reporter from it times came to Shanghai Nanxiang impression city, which gathered Tesla experience store, Weilai, Xiaopeng, ideal and other new forces of car making, and found that the "top" consumers on that day were not as dense as the recent online transmission.

Model Y's test drive car hasn't arrived yet, so it's impossible for consumers to experience the feeling of galloping on the road. So everyone gathered beside the blue sample car at the door, waiting in line to get into the car. "On the first day when I first came here, there were no fewer people around the car, all of them were surrounded. No.1 to No.3 are crazy every day, and the next few cars (model 3 and model x) are eclipsed. " Recalling the new year's day when model y was surrounded by onlookers as soon as it appeared on the stage, Tesla store staff said so.

After a price reduction of up to 160000 yuan, the price of model y long-term version is 339900 yuan, only 30000 yuan more than the original model 3 long-term version. What is the experience of selling SUVs at the price of cars? "In fact, it's not a price cut this time, because we have never delivered 488000 yuan model y, and the price is 339900 yuan." The staff explained, "last year, when it was 488000 yuan, we could provide a reservation, but we would pay when we delivered it. Model y started to be delivered in January this year, and the car owners who ordered before also paid according to the reduced price. "

What are the differences between pure electric SUV model y and electric car model 3 at almost the same price? Tesla staff said that model 3 is only equipped with 8 speakers, while model y has 14 speakers and a subwoofer. In addition, it also supports rear heating, steering wheel heating and biochemical mode (HEPA high efficiency air filtration system), which can make the air inside the car reach the operating room level and help to filter the new coronavirus.

According to the assistant, car owners who book model y on January 1 can buy the car at the end of the month. The delivery date of the order on January 2 is February 14. When the order is made on January 5, they will pick up the car in April. That is to say, basically only the car owners who order on New Year's day can expect to drive a new car for the Spring Festival. On January 6, it was only six days since the official launch. According to the official website of Tesla China, the expected delivery date of model y long life version has been changed to the second quarter of 2021.

图源/特斯拉中国官网

Tuyuan / Tesla China official website

In the face of long delivery, the staff can't help. Who makes this SUV the most cost-effective model at present?

02

Better than model 3

After the delivery of model y, not only model 3 was eclipsed, but the owners of the model 3 long-range version who picked up the car before January 1 also became "out of print users". After adding insurance, charging piles, spray paint and wheel hub, the landing price of "out of print" model 3 of eddy (alias) is about 340000, which is comparable to the price of model y long-term version. "In order not to delay the Spring Festival, I have already mentioned model 3 first."

However, even if the old car owners are "tired of driving" and want to change, it is impossible to share the benefits on the unprecedented hot new products. In the past, Tesla has launched the "Tesla owner's exclusive renewal plan", which allows any Tesla Model to replace the new model s / model X / model 3 through the official replacement, and also enjoys the rights of free overcharge of 15000 km. After model y was put on the shelves, some old car owners asked whether it could be replaced on the microblog @ Tesla customer support. However, the response was that model y was not included in the plan.

图源/微博网友Tuyuan / Weibo netizens

Will the operation of sharp price reduction make old car owners feel that they have been "cut leeks"? Lu Ping (pseudonym), who just spent 339900 yuan on Model 3 in May last year, has driven 12000km so far. He doesn't feel uncomfortable because of Tesla's "adverse" pricing of SUV. "The operating system is the same. There is no difference between model y and model 3 for drivers. It's not cost-effective to change cars." But for new car owners, the price performance ratio of SUVs is obviously more lethal. Lu Ping also said: "it's definitely more delicious to buy a new car with model y. I advise all my friends who order model 3 to change their orders."

03

Probably the price will be reduced

Model y is not only more "fragrant" than model 3, but also more "fragrant" in the future. Tesla staff told reporters: "buy model 3 price space is small, and model y will fall again. Now our localization rate is 70%, and model y is a dual motor all wheel drive. In the future, if we cancel the front wheel drive motor, reduce a few speakers, and make 100% localization, there will be room for price decline. "

On January 3, Guosen Securities released a research report, saying that the gross profit rate corresponding to the current price of domestic model y is as high as 30%, which is equivalent to 339900 yuan. The production cost of the model is only 237930000 yuan.

According to the report of YueKai securities, in the first three quarters of 2020, the gross profit rate of the new energy vehicle sector was 13.67%, a year-on-year decrease of 15.46%. The gross profit rate of model y is twice the average level of the industry. In view of the price reduction strategy adopted by model 3 at the beginning, with the improvement of model Y's production capacity in the future, there must be more room for price reduction.

图源/粤开证券

Tuyuan / YueKai securities

Guosen Securities also pointed out that 70% of the parts of model 3 and model y are shared. In the future, with the further promotion of localization, the production cost of Shanghai factory model 3 will still drop by 9.6%, including the cost of battery, electric control of motor, BIW and other parts. If the gross profit rate is maintained at 20%, the domestic model 3 can have 24% price reduction space, and the price can reach 204600 yuan. After more "profitable" model y production, in order to cover a larger market, the gross profit rate may be reduced to 25%, and the price is expected to drop to 260000 yuan.

图源/国信证券Tuyuan / Guoxin Securities

04

"Sensory impact" BBA

"Leeks have to be cut wave by wave", just as car friends joked, the price reduction trend of model y is not unexpected by consumers. The discussion about the price reduction in the model Y group has never stopped, and some people's balance has begun to move closer to "wait more". Now that the rush to buy cars has delayed the delivery date to the second quarter, some consumers simply choose to wait and see. In addition to the expectation of price reduction, there are also expectations of higher endurance.

In December last year, according to media reports, LG energy solution, an independent power battery business unit from LG Chemical, started to manufacture NCMA "Quad" batteries. People familiar with the matter said that the "four yuan" battery will start production in the second half of 2021, and Tesla is likely to purchase this battery product to supply power batteries for its model y put into production in China.

According to the data of China Automobile Association, in November 2020, the sales volume of domestic passenger cars was 2.297 million, of which 1.09 million were SUVs, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, accounting for 47%, which is the fastest growing type of car. From the preference of SUV in Chinese market and the performance of model Y's short-term orders, it's not difficult to see its potential to be popular. As the last member of Tesla's "sexy" family to appear, the domestic model y not only stirs up the pool of new forces in car building, but also throws a "deep-water bomb" on traditional fuel vehicles, bringing a dimension reduction blow to medium-sized luxury SUVs with the price of medium-sized civilian SUVs.

图源/中国汽车工业协会

Tuyuan / China Automobile Industry Association

"The price was too high in the early days, and the sharp price adjustment this time has a strong sensory impact, which will greatly promote the sales volume," said Societe Generale Securities, commenting on the smart pricing strategy of model y. The removal of domestic model 3 long endurance version is to open up the product space for model y, improve the differentiation between the two product lines, and avoid internal competition. Based on the positioning of its medium-sized luxury SUV, the main model of model y is BBA, including BMW X3, Mercedes Benz GLC and Audi Q5. But the lowest price of the above BBA SUV is 380000.

05

New forces of domestic car making show "calm"

Compared with the main models of the same level of new forces, model y also has a leading edge in terms of endurance and performance. The standard 70kwh battery of Weilai ES6 (medium-sized SUV) only supports 420-430km endurance, and the optional 100kwh battery of 58000 yuan can exceed 600km, and the minimum price of standard configuration already needs 358000 yuan. On the day of model Y's launch, it was even revealed on the Internet that Weilai encountered large-scale chargeback.

Although Weilai official denied the news, the impact of low price of competitive products is beyond doubt. On January 3, Weilai released the official used car NiO certified, providing used car users with the whole process services of vehicle detection, evaluation, acquisition and sales. At the same time, Weilai also launched official repurchase rights, such as repurchase points, Weilai value award, 60% off battery upgrade rights, NiO pilot and automatic driving discount rights. Through the one-stop experience around the needs of users to add points for cost performance is obvious.

At the second-hand car business conference, Li Bin, the founder of Weilai, revealed his report card in December last year. More than 7000 vehicles were delivered in that month, which is 10 times of that in February. "Driven by our strong sales, it's good for model y to reduce its price. If we sell well, Tesla will reduce the price even more, so we must help us sell more cars. "

Xiaopeng also set a record high of 5700 units delivered in December. In the face of the head-on attack of model y, he Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile Co., Ltd., expressed his confidence in his micro blog, saying that "even the internal telephone conference has not been opened, and the price reduction of friendly companies is only a marketing method, and it must be a double-edged sword".

图源/微博

Tuyuan / Weibo

To sum up, in the fourth quarter, Weilai delivered 17353 sets, and Xiaopeng delivered 12964 sets. No matter how confident the new forces are, these figures are still a drop in the bucket compared with Tesla's delivery of 180570 units in the fourth quarter.

Although Li Bin has pointed out that Tesla's constant price reduction will hurt consumers' brand loyalty, musk, who is keen on "picturesque", may not care about these risks. Tesla will only deliver nearly 500000 units in the Chinese market in 2020, double the 1 million target announced by musk in 2016.

It is worth mentioning that no matter which new energy vehicle, it will soon face the worry of tightening the green card policy in Shanghai. In a recent answer to the public's questions, the relevant departments made it clear that from January 1 to February 28, 2021, the policy of free new energy green card will remain unchanged.

Car owners who buy model y after the New Year holiday have obviously missed this time window. What if they don't issue free licenses after February 28? In this regard, Tesla staff have no accurate number. "It's a 50% probability to issue or not issue the car. If you order now, even if you don't have a license in the future, you will only lose 1000 yuan deposit if you don't pick up the car."

Author / IT Times reporter Li Yunkun

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