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Global lack of "core": can China's automobile meet the "core" opportunity?

via:CnBeta     time:2021/1/17 10:26:14     readed:103

In 2021, the global automobile industry will be in a double hot and cold situation. On the one hand, new car building forces are coming into the market. The domestic Tesla Model y has cut its price by more than 100000 yuan to compete for the market. Weilai has released the electric car et7. Apple has joined hands with Hyundai to build cars. Baidu has joined hands with Geely to get a share

On the other hand, global auto companies have announced production cuts or even production stoppages due to the lack of "core": in China, FAW Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen and other auto companies have announced the reduction of production shifts, and the production of some models will be suspended in the short term; in foreign countries, Ford, Toyota, Nissan, Daimler and other auto giants have also announced production cuts.

The car has become another industry stuck by chips.

Trapped by "core"

Recently, German auto company Volkswagen Group and auto parts supply giants continental group and Bosch group have issued early warnings one after another. The global shortage of auto chips will affect auto production. The tight supply of chips has threatened the security of the global auto industry supply chain.

The demand for chips in traditional cars mainly lies in engine control, body, battery management, on-board entertainment control and other local functions. However, with the improvement of automobile intelligence, the demand for chips in the industry is also increasing.

According to the data, the scale of China's automotive semiconductor market was RMB 61.16 billion in 2018, with a year-on-year growth of 15.6%. In 2019, this figure will expand by more than RMB 70 billion. With the rapid promotion of new energy vehicles and the continuous development of intelligent vehicles, the industry is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2021.

The novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak that has been coming for more than a year has been a "core lacking" fuse.

Affected by the epidemic, the upstream and downstream industry chains of auto companies are pessimistic about the auto market. As semiconductor manufacturers that plan their production capacity based on orders, most chip suppliers choose to reduce their production capacity or even shut down their factories without receiving enough orders.

However, different from the original expectation, the auto market will recover better in 2020. Especially in China, which has a huge automobile market, the epidemic situation has been quickly controlled, and even ushered in an abnormal boom in the second half of the year, and the automobile sales have not been greatly affected. According to the data released by the China Association of automobile industry on the 13th, China's automobile sales in 2020 will drop by 1.9% year-on-year, much better than expected.

The production capacity of automobile enterprises has recovered significantly, but the chip production capacity has not kept up with the pace in time. There is a mismatch between cars and chips. The supply cycle of chips is 8 to 12 months. Now there is a shortage of chips, which can be traced back to the epidemic period.

The above factors together cause the imbalance of global chip supply and demand. The result of short supply is price increase. It is understood that the price increase of some chip manufacturers has reached 50% - 100%.

China's "core" opportunities

Crisis is often "opportunity" hidden in "danger". Industry insiders believe that under the background that the industry attaches great importance to automobile chips and the demand for automobile chips continues to expand, opportunities for domestic automobile chip manufacturers have emerged.

At present, China's car chip sticking phenomenon is still serious. If the automobile chips are divided into front chip and back chip, the import rate of front chip of domestic automobile enterprises is more than 95%, and the import rate of back chip is more than 80%, which basically depends on foreign supply. The overall scale of domestic independent automobile chips accounts for less than 10%, which can not achieve safety and self-control.

With the continuous improvement of automobile intelligence, the demand for chips will also increase significantly. It is urgent to solve the problem of chip sticking in China.

On the other hand, the lack of core event is also forcing China's chip industry to become bigger and stronger. In the case of foreign chip demand can not meet, more car companies or parts suppliers can only seek support from domestic chip manufacturers. This is a rare opportunity for domestic chip manufacturers.

In addition to horizon, a domestic Unicorn chip manufacturer, many auto chip manufacturers have risen in recent years. For example, Xinchi technology, established in 2018, has completed three rounds of financing in two years. Recently, these enterprises have also made a statement that they will make efforts to manufacture automobile chips.

To solve the problem of automobile chip shortage, some powerful automobile enterprises are also actively making efforts. BYD is one of the earliest domestic auto companies in the chip field.

As early as 2004, BYD set up a semiconductor company, which has accumulated more than ten years in chip R & D and production. When most auto companies are faced with chip shortage this time, BYD said that its own chips can not only be self-sufficient, but also "have a surplus for external supply".

According to the data disclosed by BYD in September last year, more than 1 million IGBT based vehicle gauge power devices have been installed. Since 2007, BYD has been carrying out the research and development of vehicle specification level MCU at the same time.

However, the industry generally believes that China's auto chip "breakthrough" road is arduous and difficult.

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