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"Li Huanying effect" will dominate the investment logic of Chinese film and television stocks for a long time

via:博客园     time:2021/2/19 20:14:17     readed:227

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New moon

Source: brocade

01

In the Spring Festival of 2021, the people's enthusiasm for watching movies, which is suppressed by the epidemic situation, is growing rapidly. From the first day to the sixth day of the lunar new year, the box office (excluding service fees) of the national films recorded 7.15 billion yuan, exceeding the optimistic expectation limit (6.5-7 billion yuan) before the festival, and a sharp increase of 30.8% compared with the Spring Festival in 2019 before the epidemic, which is the strongest in history.

图1:2021

Figure 1: the Spring Festival in 2021 hit a record high. Source: Yien, Guosheng Securities Research Institute

From the box office dismantling point of view, this year's Spring Festival show the volume and price rise and the full bloom of the beautiful results. Among them, the average ticket price increased by 7.7% compared with the same period of 19 years, and the number of movie viewers increased by 21.9%.

图2:各线次城市

Figure 2: comparison of box office growth of Spring Festival in 2021 compared with that of the same period in 2019 in all line cities. Source: Yien, Guosheng Securities Research Institute

Compared with the box office market, the street is more concerned about the performance of a single film.

"Chinatown detective 3" and "Hello, Li Huanying" currently have a total box office of 3.6 billion and 3 billion respectively (as of 4:00 p.m. on the 18th), leading the entire schedule. However, the fate of the two films has reversed in just a few days.

With the popularity of the first two Tangtan series, "Tangtan 3" is the first movie to be released. The total pre-sale box office before its release reached 1.001 billion yuan, breaking the previous record of 737 million yuan set by "Avengers 4". The number of people that cat eye wanted to see peaked at 45641 the day before the show.

"Tang Tan San" was scheduled for the Spring Festival last year. At that time, Xu Zheng's "lost mother" and light media's (SZ: 300251) "Jiang Ziya" were also scheduled, but both of them were cancelled due to the epidemic.

However, make complaints about the plot, greasy and Boomer and ubiquitous advertisements quickly became the focus of audience's attention, and the bean score also dropped to 5.7.

Accompanied by it, naturally, is the box office high open low. After only three days at the box office, Tang Tan San was attacked by the lower ranked "Hello, Li Huanying".

图3:春节档影片上映前观众认知度。资料来源:灯塔专业版,中金公司研究部。注:数据截至

Figure 3: audience recognition before the release of Spring Festival films. Source: Lighthouse professional edition, research department of CICC. Note: data as of January 9.

With the rapid spread of the Internet, the super high word-of-mouth (Douban 8.2) is rapidly fermenting. On the fourth day of the Lunar New Year (February 15), "Li Huanying" achieved a box office share 8.5 percentage points higher than "Tang Tan San" when its film arrangement share was 1.7 percentage points lower than that of "Tang Tan San", and reached the top of the box office on that day.

图4:春节档票房和排片场次份额走势对比。资料来源:艺恩,中金公司研究部

Figure 4: trend comparison of box office and film arrangement share in Spring Festival. Source: Yien, research department of CICC

Although the total box office of Li Huanying still lags behind that of Tang Tansan, according to the big data analysis and prediction of cat's eye professional edition, the final total box office of Li Huanying is expected to reach 5.28 billion, more than 4.52 billion of Tang Tansan, becoming the best-selling film in the Spring Festival. In just a few days, the fate of the two films reversed in the crisscross.

02

From channel to content

In fact, whether it's "Tang Tan San" or "Li Huan Ying" who attacks by word of mouth, the underlying reason is that high-quality content has become the core driving force of cultural and entertainment products consumption.

The rapid construction of the channel has effectively led to the blowout of the number of film viewers, and then led to the substantial growth of the national film box office. Because of the freshness brought by the experience of watching movies, even the poorly made scripts, PPT like pictures, and even the large screen versions of variety shows have a chance to make a lot of money.

图5:中国电影银幕数在

Figure 5: the number of Chinese film screens increased rapidly from 2010 to 2015. Source: wind

图6:伴随影院建设,中国电影观影人次在

Figure 6: with the construction of cinemas, the number of Chinese film viewers increased significantly from 2012 to 2015. Source: cat's eye

图7:国产片票房分账比例。资料来源:广电总局、猫眼

Figure 7: the proportion of domestic films at the box office. Source: SARFT, cat's eye

In addition, it must be emphasized that in the process of content replacing channels as the core driving force, the great development of social media has played an important role in accelerating the spread of word-of-mouth, so that the situation of information asymmetry can be eliminated quickly, and high-quality content can counter attack in a shorter time.

Does this contrast make you feel familiar with the history of Chinese business: in the past 20 years, Gome, Suning vs Gree and Midea have had several rounds of epic wars in channels and products, but now they have similar results in China's film and television industry.

03

2020 is a year of revolution for game producers to comprehensively challenge the downstream channels. In September, the original God, the awakening of nations, the strongest snail and other games chose to bypass the Android App store and released independently on their own official website or game vertical community. These games with sophisticated production and innovative play, still achieved very good business performance.

图8:未选择或延期上架安卓应用商店渠道的典型游戏产品。资料来源:中金公司研究部

Figure 8: typical game products not selected or delayed in the Android App store channel. Source: Research Department of CICC

On the morning of new year's day in 2021, Huawei app store suddenly removed all Tencent mobile games, becoming a hot topic on the first day of the new year. The focus of the conflict between the two sides is actually the difference in the allocation proportion of the game recharge flow, and finally Huawei made a partial compromise.

In the future, there will be more game developers who, with their own high-quality works, have the confidence to give up the Android download channel, or negotiate with the channel to get a higher share.

Looking at the film and television industry, the three platforms of iqiyi (NASDAQ: IQ), Tencent video and Youku, which are supported by giants, have been operating for many years and are still mired in losses. In the final analysis, the reason is that under the existing mode of external procurement of copyright content, users can not establish the stickiness to the platform, but just run after the high-quality content. Where there are good-looking dramas and variety shows, they will recharge.

Therefore, the only way to develop is to establish its own exclusive content barrier, which is precisely the essence of the success of Naifei (NASDAQ: NFlx) and the reason why mango super media (SZ: 300413) is outstanding in terms of profit.

(this article is based on public information, only for information exchange, and does not constitute any investment proposal.)

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