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With a huge loss of 900 million yuan and Wang Wei apologizing, why did SF "overturn"?

via:博客园     time:2021/4/11 14:11:59     readed:130

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Wen / Wei Jie

Source: shenrancaijing

来源/深交所顺丰公告

Source / SF announcement of Shenzhen Stock Exchange

However, the capital market does not buy this explanation. At the beginning of April 9, Shunfeng's share price fell by the limit. Compared with the high point a year ago, the share price has shrunk by more than 40%. The total market value of Shunfeng has evaporated by more than 200 billion yuan.

The reason why SF is so anxious to increase investment and compete for the market is that today's express industry is in the time window period before the integration and reshuffle of franchise express, Jingdong Logistics and Jitu express are listed. In a word, if it's too late, the opponent will be stronger.

The top students hand in the bad examination papers, and the good fortune is gone?

SF and its investors will remember that day. Because since the first quarter of 2009, there has never been a loss for SF in the first quarter. Even in the difficult first quarter of 2020, the net profit was 907 million yuan.

Everyone's surprise is reasonable. Because in the annual report disclosed on March 17, SF is still the top student. According to Shunfeng's 2020 annual report, in 2020, it will achieve an operating revenue of 154 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.3%; a business volume of 8.14 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 68.5%; a net profit of 7.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%; and a net profit of 6.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.7%. Key indicators rose, SF and investors a honey.

SF listed five reasons for the loss in the announcement.

Reason 1: the company is in a critical period of new business development. In order to expand market share and build long-term core competitiveness, the company continues to increase the pre investment in new business.

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Reason 2: the epidemic delayed the pace of capital expenditure investment of the company, and the rapid growth of business volume led to capacity bottlenecks in multiple links of express transportation. Since the fourth quarter of last year, temporary resource investment has been increased to undertake the increment, resulting in cost pressure.

It is worth noting that Anxin Securities pointed out that in the same period of last year, express companies had more cost dividends. In the first quarter of last year, express companies enjoyed 44 days of toll free, saving about 180 million yuan to 200 million yuan. This year, the cost will be reflected as usual.

Reason 3: in the early stage of integration, there is overlapping investment of resources.

Reason 4: in the first quarter, the company gives high subsidies to the first and second line employees in the Spring Festival.

Wang Wei said at the shareholders' meeting that he did not expect this. During the Spring Festival peak, the transportation cost is higher than the original expectation.

Reason 5: the arrangement of peers not closing for the Spring Festival in some regions has differentiated part of the bulk business, and the growth of the bulk business in the time effective parts is lower than expected; the economic business in the stock customers grows faster, and the gross profit of the company's e-commerce parts is under pressure.

Wang Wei said that in the first quarter, the time effective parts did not reach the expected growth, and then the factors of economic parts added up, resulting in the falsely high cost.

These reasons have failed to quell the fierce questioning. On the afternoon of April 9, Chen Xiwen, director of investor relations at SF, said: the first quarter (loss) is not a long-term problem. It's just that the investment has increased, and the fundamentals are not too big. It's just that there is too much business and too fast investment, which leads to the (profit) going down. Profits will be better in the second quarter.

In short, according to SF, it's not a big problem, just a big step.

Is SF in danger?

What's wrong with SF, which makes the capital market react violently? SF's calculation is to cover the lower price band and find the second growth curve.

As we all know, timeliness (mainly for business customers, express with high requirements for timeliness and service) is the basic dish of SF, which is also the starting way to distinguish it from other express companies. Relying on the time effective parts with higher customer price, Shunfeng has been sitting firmly on the high-end track, enjoying the dividend of the industry pyramid. However, in recent years, SF began to feel: No, SF has to attack downward and outward to eat more market share.

Shen wanhongyuan (4.640, - 0.02, - 0.43%) pointed out in the research report that time sensitive parts are the main profit source of SF. Due to the fact that other express companies do not close for the Spring Festival this year, part of the demand has been diverted. Combined with the impact of last year's high base, the growth rate of time sensitive parts of SF is expected to be between 5% and 10% in the first quarter of this year, which is lower than the company and market's previous expectations. Due to the temporary mismatch of the company's production capacity, the gross profit margin of time effective parts decreased significantly, which directly affected the profit scale of time effective parts.

In terms of image, Shunfeng used to open five-star hotels, taking high-end and business routes, but now Shunfeng not only wants to open five-star hotels, but also wants to open Shaxian snack bars, taking the affordable route. During the Spring Festival, Shunfeng thought that the company was closed, and many guests could only eat from five-star hotels at home. They prepared a large table of dishes and prepared to rush for a wave of performance. As a result, the company did not close. Many guests went to other people's houses to eat, and some dishes were wasted, and the expected money was not earned.

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According to the above research report, with the arrival of the peak season in the second half of the year and the correction of the company's own expectations, the capacity utilization rate is likely to rise to a reasonable level, which will promote the profit recovery of the company's aging business. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the temporary fluctuation of the profit of aging parts.

A Securities researcher told shenran that SF's explanation for the loss was relatively objective and sincere. SF is in the stage of enclosure in e-commerce parts, supply chain and cross-border market, and the loss is temporary. After successful enclosure, SF can eat more profits. In his view, SF has not had too much strategic or management problems, and is still a high-quality white horse stock.

Express business takes on the role of SF's new growth engine. According to the above-mentioned Securities researcher's judgment, Shunfeng's four network financing strategy and express's speed-up this year also have an impact on its profits. Moreover, the prices of upstream raw materials have risen this year, and the merchants are more sensitive to the prices. The company has invested in it, but it can't raise the prices in the short term, and even has to subsidize the price reduction. However, after the network integration of Shunfeng, it can reduce the cost and increase efficiency, control the loss and recover the profit.

Who is besieging Shunfeng?

Although the fundamentals did not appear particularly fatal problems, but SF is not in a hurry. The weakness of SF's performance has been revealed in the annual report of 2020. In 2020, SF's market share shrank by about 2%, and the net profit growth rate in the fourth quarter was 16%. Compared with the net profit growth rate exceeding 50% in the previous two quarters, SF's growth rate slowed down significantly.

At the time of Shunfeng's loss, the momentum of extreme rabbit was fierce.

Recently, it has been reported that Jitu has just completed a financing of US $1.8 billion, led by Boyu capital, followed by Highland capital and Sequoia Capital. The post investment valuation has reached US $7.8 billion, surpassing old express companies such as Yuantong, Shentong and Yunda. At present, it is second only to Shunfeng (about US $50.6 billion), Jingdong Logistics (known as US $40 billion) and Zhongtong (US $24.1 billion). According to media reports, polar rabbit plans to conduct an IPO of more than US $1 billion in the United States.

In this kind of environment, Shunfeng also cannot bear its disturbance. At least three to four peers will be listed by the end of this year, Huang said.

However, it should be noted that under the fierce price war, the first quarter of 2021 may not be easy for other express companies. Because SF was the first to issue a notice.

According to the data of the State Post Office, the average unit price of the industry from January to February 2021 decreased by 20.2% year-on-year. Among the listed express companies, the single ticket revenue of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong from January to February decreased by 24.2%, 15.6% and 19.7% year-on-year respectively.

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